Areal Flood Warning 28, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
418 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/417 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008/

MODELS REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON NWLY FLOW PATTERN AT H500 TO
CONTINUE THRU THE NEXT 72HRS WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES TO DROP
THRU THE AREA TO CONTINUE THE OFF-AND-ON PCPN CHCS. AT THE SFC...
LOOK FOR CDFNT TO PUSH THRU THE AREA TONIGHT AND THEN STALL NEAR THE
MO/AR BORDER SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CDFNT TO THEN DROP
DOWN INTO THE NRN FA SUNDAY...AND THEN WILL MEANDER AND LINGER IN
THIS REGION INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

RICH ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE...WHICH GREATLY CONTRIBUTED TO THE HEAVY
RAINFALL PRODUCING TSRA FROM LAST NIGHT IN THE NWRN FA...WILL
CONTINUE TO PERSIST OVER MAINLY THE CNTRL/SRN FA TONIGHT. THE MAIN
FOCUS AND BEST DE-STABILIZATION HAS ALSO OCCURRED IN THIS AREA AND
WE THEREFORE EXPECT THE BEST PCPN CHCS TO BE OVER THIS AREA. THIS
EFFECTIVELY REMOVES THE BETTER PCPN CHCS OUT OF THE CURRENT FFA AND
EVEN THOUGH WE STILL EXPECT SOME SCT TSRA IN THIS AREA TONIGHT WITH
THE CDFNT...TSRA SHOULD BE SPACED FAR ENOUGH APART AND MOVE AND NOT
BACKBUILD TO MAKE ANY NEW FLOODING UNLIKELY. WILL THEREFORE CANCEL
THE FFA.

CDFNT PUSHES INTO FAR SRN MO ON SATURDAY AND SHOULD ALLOW SOME DRIER
AIR TO WORK IN...ALTHOUGH NOT BY MUCH. THIS WILL GIVE THE FA A DRY
PERIOD OF ABOUT 24-36HRS BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO MAKE A RETURN
LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

NEXT CDFNT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND THIS IS ABOUT WHERE
DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT ENDS FOR THE LOW-MID LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. WHAT TO DO WITH THE FRONT IS THE SOURCE OF BIG
DISAGREEMENT...WITH THE NAM PUSHING IT SWD THRU THE FA...AND THE GFS
HANGING IT UP IN THE NRN FA. HAVE A TENDENCY TO BELIEVE THE GFS
PLACEMENT AT THIS POINT...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH TO HAVE LOW
POPS UNTIL WE GET A BETTER HANDLE ON THIS.

TEMPS WILL BE ABOUT NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR THRU THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD (MONDAY NIGHT - FRIDAY)...MEDIUM RANGE
MODELS BEGIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT BUT THEN DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY BY
LATE NEXT WEEK. MUCH OF THE FOCUS FOR THE FIRST AND MIDDLE PARTS OF
THIS PERIOD WILL BE ON THE FATE OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY. WITH H500
RIDGE EXPECTED TO DOMINATE THE SWRN CONUS THRU THIS PERIOD...LOOK
FOR THESE REMNANTS TO TAKE THE LONG ROAD AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE
SWRN CONUS RIDGE BEFORE RE-EMERGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND PUSH
INTO THE CNTRL HI PLAINS BY MID WEEK. HAVE MAINTAINED PCPN CHCS FOR
WED-THURS TIME FRAME...WHERE WE BELIEVE WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR THE DOLLY REMNANTS TO PASS THRU. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNFICANTLY BY
LATE WEEK WITH ECMWF DROPPING DOWN A TROF INTO THE GRTLKS REGION
WHILE THE GFS AND UKMET ENHANCE THE RIDGE OVER THE CNTRL CONUS.
LEANED MORE TOWARDS CLIMO BY LATE WEEK UNTIL THESE ISSUES CAN
RESOLVE THEMSELVES MORE. OTHERWISE...COULD SEE PCPN CHANCES IN
ADDITIONAL TIME PERIODS OUTSIDE OF WED-THURS WITH A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE DRAPED OVER THE AREA.
TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL...BUT WITH MAIN
PORTION OF H500 RIDGE STAYING OVER THE SWRN CONUS...PREFER TO NOT GO
TOO EXTREME AT THIS JUNCTURE.

TES

&&

.AVIATION...
/108 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008/

FOR THE 18Z TAFS...PRIMARY CONCERN FOR AVIATORS THROUGH AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT WILL BE ONGOING CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. MODEL GUIDANCE
IS NOT VERY SPECIFIC ON TIMING OR PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION FOR THE
NEXT 12-16 HOURS...BUT WITH THE SKY CLEARING OUT BEHIND THIS
MORNINGS RAIN IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL
DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.
TIMING...STRENGTH AND DURATION CONTINUE TO BE DIFFICULT TO
DETERMINE THOUGH SO HAVE OPTED NOT TO TEMPO THUNDER IN ANY OF THE
TAFS...ALSO HAVE KEPT PROB30S FOR THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS.

CARNEY

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
429 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-261200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
429 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS AREAWIDE FOR THIS EVENING...SO SOME STORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO THE SIZE OF PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH.

THE NORTH RIVER NEAR PALMYRA IS IN MODERATE FLOOD. PLEASE REFER TO
THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCT FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE NORTH RIVER NEAR PALMYRA WILL REMAIN IN MODERATE FLOOD UNTIL
SATURDAY MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE APPROPRIATE FLOOD PRODUCT FOR
DETAILS.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS ON SATURDAY. THE CHANCE WILL
EXPAND OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE
ON SUNDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE ON SUNDAY.

THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY OVER PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTH CENTRAL ILLINOIS THIS EVENING.
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SEVERE WEATHER TO THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TES

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     WALL CLOUD       2 S CALIFORNIA          38.60N  92.57W
07/25/2008                   MONITEAU           MO   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            SPOTTER REPORTED ORGANIZED ROTATION TO THE MONITEAU
            COUNTY S. O.

&&

EVENT NUMBER LSX0800721

MILLER