Areal Flood Warning 22, NWS St. Louis, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
621 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

.DISCUSSION...
/543 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/
MCS HAS COMPLICATED THE FCST FOR TDY. THINK EFFECTIVE BNDY WL BE
ALONG AND S OF A MEXICO MO TO STL TO LITCHFIELD IL LINE. ONGOING
CNVTN IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH DURING THE MRNG HRS...THEN
REINITIATE THIS AFTN. CNVTN THIS AFTN SHUD PUSH SWD TNGT AND ALLOW
SFC RIDGE TO BUILD INTO THE AREA.

LATE WED NGT SFC BNDY SHUD START TO MV NWD AGAIN WITH MCS
PROPAGATING SEWD ALONG THE BNDY. UNCERTAIN WITH REGARD TO TIMING
BUT IS POSSIBLE THAT CNVTN SHUD BE IN WRN PORTIONS OF CWA BY
SUNRISE. THIS COMPLEX WL DETERMINE WHERE CNVTN INITIATES DURING
THE AFTN THURS.

FRI...BNDY SHUD BE N OF CWA ALLOWING TEMPS TO REACH 90S AGAIN.
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO PREV FCST AS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY
STILL EXISTS DUE TO POSSIBLE LOCATIONS OF MCS DEVELOPMENT. WENT
WITH COOLER MOS TEMPS FOR TDY AND TMW THEN WENT WITH A GRADUAL
WARM UP.

TILLY

&&

.AVIATION...
/613 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008/
FOR THE 12Z TAFS...

MCS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. THUNDERSTORMS
CURRENTLY STRETCH ACROSS CENTRAL MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
MISSOURI...WITH MORE OF A STRATIFORM RAIN NORTH OF THE
CONVECTION. WILL WATCH A COLD FRONT SLOWLY SHIFT SOUTH THROUGH
THE AREA TODAY...WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING. OTHERWISE...VARIABLE WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
BY THIS EVENING.

CVKING

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

WFO LSX

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
511 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

ILZ058>060-064-065-069-070-074-079-095>102-MOZ018-019-026-027-
034>036-041-042-047>052-059>065-072>075-084-085-099-231200-
GREENE IL-MACOUPIN IL-MONTGOMERY IL-BOND IL-FAYETTE IL-CLINTON IL-
MARION IL-WASHINGTON IL-RANDOLPH IL-ADAMS IL-BROWN IL-PIKE IL-
CALHOUN IL-JERSEY IL-MADISON IL-ST. CLAIR IL-MONROE IL-KNOX-LEWIS-
SHELBY-MARION-MONROE-RALLS-PIKE-BOONE-AUDRAIN-MONITEAU-COLE-OSAGE-
CALLAWAY-MONTGOMERY-LINCOLN-GASCONADE-WARREN-ST. CHARLES-FRANKLIN-
ST. LOUIS-ST. LOUIS CITY-JEFFERSON-CRAWFORD-WASHINGTON-
ST. FRANCOIS-STE. GENEVIEVE-IRON-MADISON-REYNOLDS-
511 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN AND
CENTRAL MISSOURI AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ILLINOIS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT CONTINUES TO SINK SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THESE
STORMS WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND MISSOURI LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THEN ACROSS ALL OF THE AREA
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION SEE OUR
WEBPAGE AT (LOWERCASE)... HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LSX/?N=HWO1

TILLY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
655 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FERGUSON                38.75N  90.30W
07/22/2008  M1.95 INCH       ST. LOUIS          MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SINCE 11 PM YESTERDAY.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00694

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
659 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 S TAYLOR              39.87N  91.52W
07/21/2008                   MARION             MO   CO-OP OBSERVER

            NUMEROUS LIMBS DOWN SEVERAL INCHES IN DIAMETER BETWEEN
            PALMYRA AND HANNIBAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00695

SIPPRELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
922 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2008

..TIME..    ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE..    ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION.. ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0920 AM     HAIL             ASHLAND                 38.77N  92.26W
07/22/2008  E0.75 INCH       BOONE              MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALSO WIND GUST TO 45 MPH

&&

EVENT NUMBER 00696

FGLASS

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