Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
445 PM PST TUE DEC 23 2008

UPDATE FOR NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

.SHORT TERM...
A POWERFUL WINTER STORM SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON ABOUT
680 NM WNW OF SAN FRANCISCO. THIS STORM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE QUICKLY
SOUTHEAST AND DOWN THE COAST OF CENTRAL CALIFORNIA TOMORROW...THEN
SWING INTO THE CALIFORNIA BIGHT TOMORROW EVENING. WE ARE EXPECTING
THIS STORM TO BE THE WETTEST OF THE SEASON SO FAR WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR DROPPING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN ALONG THE COASTS...TWICE THAT IN
THE FOOTHILLS...AND 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA
AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

RAIN WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST OVERNIGHT AND
SPREAD SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BY SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY. MODERATE
RAINS WILL SPREAD ACROSS SANTA BARBARA COUNTY ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL INTENSITIES TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL SPREAD RAIN SOUTH AND
EAST INTO VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH THE
BEST POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
ACROSS COASTAL AND VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN ONE
AND THREE INCHES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS PROJECTED FOR THE SANTA
BARBARA SOUTH COAST. DUE TO THE STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
EXPECTED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THERE IS EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT
OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT OF RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH FACING FOOTHILL AND
MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD SEE THREE TO SIX INCH STORM TOTAL
ACCUMULATIONS...WITH HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SANTA YNEZ
RANGE AND THE TOPA TOPA MOUNTAINS IN VENTURA COUNTY.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A 6 HOUR PERIOD OF STEADY HEAVY RAIN
PRECEDING THE COLD FRONT ARRIVAL...ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL RATES OVER ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE PEAK OF THE STORM...POTENTIALLY EXCEEDING BURN
AREA THRESHOLDS ESTABLISHED BY THE USGS. THEREFORE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS HAS BEEN ISSUED. IN ADDITION TO THE BURN
AREAS...THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE URBAN
AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING OVER MUCH OF THE REGION.

ALONG WITH THE HEAVY RAINS...EXPECT 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY. MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR ABOVE 6000 FEET...
WITH AMOUNTS OF BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FEET POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST RESORT
AREAS. LOCAL SNOWFALL TOTALS UP TO 3 FEET WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS.
ALONG WITH THE SNOWFALL...STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 30 TO 45 MPH
WITH GUSTS TO 70 MPH ARE EXPECTED. THIS IS A POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS
WINTER STORM FOR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS...WITH TRAVEL TO THE
MOUNTAINS DISCOURAGED ON CHRISTMAS EVE. THE COMBINATION OF
SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AND VERY STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE THE STRONG
POTENTIAL FOR DANGEROUS WHITEOUT CONDITIONS WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR
ZERO AT TIMES. WHILE THE SNOW LEVEL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE THE
GRAPEVINE LEVEL...THE VERY STRONG WINDS WILL STILL CREATE A
POTENTIAL HAZARD FOR MOTORISTS ON INTERSTATE 5.

EXPECT GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS ON CHRISTMAS DAY WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...BUT DIMINISHING AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO BELOW ROADWAY LEVELS ON THE I5
OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME LOCAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THIS COULD CAUSE PROBLEMS FOR TRAVELERS
THROUGH THE TEJON PASS LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY FRIDAY. THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ON THE COLD SIDE
WITH SOME COASTAL LOCATIONS FALLING INTO THE 30S.

.LONG TERM...
MODEL AGREEMENT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD FOR THE LONG TERM. EXPECT A RIDGE
TO BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE REGION WITH CLEARING SKIES AND WARMER
TEMPERATURES SATURDAY THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD. AT THIS TIME...
NEXT WEEK LOOKS FAIR AND DRY WITH SEASONAL WARM TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...24/0040Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THE TAF SITES
OVERNIGHT. MVFR CIGS AND SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO SLO/SBA COUNTIES
LATE TONIGHT...SPREADING S TO VTU/L.A. COUNTIES WED MORNING. ALL TAF
SITES WILL DETERIORATE TO IFR TO LOW MVFR CONDITIONS WED MORNING
THEN CONTINUE THRU WED AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION GUSTY S TO SE WINDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WED MORNING AND PERSIST THRU THE AFTERNOON.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY THEN
POSSIBLE START TO PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO VSBYS
AND CIGS IN RAIN THRU WED AFTERNOON. AFTER 08Z...A WEAK EAST TO
SOUTHEAST WIND WILL DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN INTO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN VFR CONDS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY THEN
POSSIBLE START TO PROLONGED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDS DUE TO VSBYS
AND CIGS IN RAIN.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WATCH (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
GALE WATCH (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...DANIELSON
AVIATION...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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