Winter Storm Warning 4, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
145 PM PST SAT FEB 2 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-TUE)...NEXT STORM ON THE WAY WITH RAIN REPORTED
IN THE BAY AREA THIS AFTERNOON. SYSTEM NOT LOOKING TOO IMPRESSIVE ON
SATELLITE AT THIS TIME, HOWEVER AMSU IMAGERY INDICATING PWS IN
EXCESS OF 1.3 INCHES BETWEEN 135W AND 145W. THE TRICKY PART WITH
THIS SYSTEM WILL BE DETERMINING HOW MUCH OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT WE
WILL GET. THE LAST FEW RUNS OF THE NAM, AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
GFS HAVE BEEN SHOWING MORE OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW LVL
WIND FIELD AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATER TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE
18Z NAM PRECIP FORECAST SEEMS TO BE PICKING UP ON THIS AS THE
AMOUNTS HAVE BEEN CUT BACK SOMEWHAT. THIS COULD JUST BE THE OFF HOUR
NAM RUN THROWING US A CURVE, BUT GIVEN THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY OF THE
SYSTEM IM INCLINED TO AGREE WITH IT. HOWEVER WITH PWS STILL ABOVE
1.3 INCHES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME DECENT RAIN RATES,
POSSIBLY HEAVY ENOUGH FOR BURN AREA MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS. SORT OF A
BORDERLINE SITUATION FOR A WATCH, BUT GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT
WEVE HAD THE LAST TWO WEEKS IM INCLINED TO GO WITH ONE.

PRETTY GOOD SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY AS
LAX-SFO GRADIENT INCREASES TO OVER 8 MB. HOWEVER, IT APPEARS THERE
IS TOO MUCH OF A WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE WIND FIELD TO GET A
MOUNTAIN WAVE IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY AND 850 WINDS ARE ONLY 30-40
KT. HOWEVER, POST-FRONTAL WINDS THERE WILL BE QUITE STRONG SO I JUST
DELAYED THE HIGH WIND WATCH UNTIL LATER IN THE MORNING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN ALL AREAS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND POST-FRONTAL WIND ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN MANY
AREAS.

MODELS INDICATE RISING SNOW LEVELS TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT, BUT
THEN COME CRASHING DOWN SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. STILL
LOOKS LIKE A DECENT SNOW PRODUCER, ESPECIALLY FOR THE RESORTS AND
THE WINTER STORM WATCH WILL BE CONVERTED TO A WARNING WITH THE
AFTERNOON ZONES. BY SUNDAY NIGHT, SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE GRAPEVINE WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FALLING TO 3500
FEET, AND FOR THIS REASON THE WARNING DURATION HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

WINDS SHIFT QUICKLY TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. VERY
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE I-5 CORRIDOR, AND GUSTY WINDS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO FILTER THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF SBA,
VENTURA, AND LA COUNTIES. CONDITIONS WILL BE DRYING OUT BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE.

GRADIENTS TURN OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS TO THE AREA, ESPECIALLY EASTERN VENTURA AND
WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTIES. WIND PROTECTED LOCATIONS MONDAY NIGHT
WILL GET VERY COLD, WITH READINGS DIPPING INTO THE TEENS AND 20S IN
THE COLDEST LOCATIONS AND 30S TO LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM (WED-SAT)...A WEAK SYSTEM WILL MOVE QUICKLY THROUGH THE
PAC NW WED, BUT IT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO BRING RAIN TO THE AREA.
A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE ERN PACIFIC WILL INITIATE A WARMING
TREND TO SO CAL WITH HIGHS CLIMBING BACK TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL LATER IN THE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...AT 1745Z...OR 0945 PST...UNCERTAIN ON TIMING OF 025 CIGS
AND PRECIPITATION OVER KLAX AND KBUR. CIGS WILL LIKELY DESCEND LATE
EVENING THROUGH EARLY SUN MORNING WHILE THE SYSTEM LOCATED OFFSHORE
OF THE PAC NW PROGRESSES E. SURFACE BOUNDARY WAS OVER NORTHERN CA
THIS MORNING AND WILL MOVE SOUTH THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE BURN AREAS (SEE LAXFFALOX).
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...WOFFORD
AVIATION...FORWOOD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

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