Wind Advisory 216, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1218 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

.UPDATE...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE SUBSIDENCE
INTENSIFYING OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...AND THIS AREA OF
SUBSIDENCE WILL PUSH SOUTH OVER THE AREA LATER TONIGHT. WITH NAM-
WRF SOLUTIONS INDICATING BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS AROUND 35 KNOTS AND
OVER 10 DEGREES OF THERMAL ADVECTION AND GFS HAVING ABOUT 8
DEGREES OF THERMAL ADVECTION AT 850 MB...WIND ADVISORIES FOR THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS. THERE IS
A PERIOD LATER TODAY WHERE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE
SUB-WARNING LEVEL WINDS...BUT WINDS WILL REDEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON OR THIS EVENING. IN ADDITION FOR TONIGHT...WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN FERNANDO AND SANTA
CLARITA VALLEYS WITH HIGH WIND WATCHES FOR THE SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY CONTINUING. WITH MOS GUIDANCE SUGGESTING WINDS OF 23 TO 27
KNOTS...WIND ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ADDED FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL COAST. WIND ADVISORY DECISION FOR THE
VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL PLAIN HAS BEEN DELAYED...BUT IT IS VERY
LIKELY A WIND ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AS WELL WITH TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENTS IN THE SANTA
BARBARA CHANNEL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 PM PDT THU OCT 9 2008/

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT-SUN)...WINDS CRANKING UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
ALONG THE SBA S COAST AND SANTA YNEZ RANGE THIS EVENING. GUSTS TO 50
MPH AT MONTECITO AND TO 59 MPH AT WHITAKER PEAK HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
THERE MAY BE LOCAL GUSTS OVER 50 MPH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN THESE
AREAS OTHERWISE WINDS SHOULD BE GENERALLY IN THE WIND ADVISORY RANGE
OVERNIGHT INTO FRI MORNING...AND WIND ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE IN
THESE AREAS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. OTHERWISE STUBBORN MARINE LAYER
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST ALONG THE L.A. COASTAL PLAIN AND INTO THE SAN
GABRIEL AND PORTIONS OF THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEYS OVERNIGHT.
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD PUSH INTO THE SAN FERNANDO VALLEY DOWN TO
NEAR LAX LATER TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD HELP TO CLEAR THE LOW CLOUDS
FROM THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL COVER MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THRU TONIGHT.

IT LOOKS LIKE A PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP S FROM THE PAC NW INTO CA
ON THE W SIDE OF A BROAD UPPER TROF LATE TONIGHT THRU FRI...WITH A
COLD UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO EASTERN CA. THE
UPPER LOW WILL LINGER JUST E OF THE DISTRICT FRI NIGHT THEN SLOWLY
MOVE E SAT THRU SUN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR TO
THE DISTRICT THRU THE PERIOD. IN ADDITION...VERY GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST AND POSSIBLY THE VTU COAST FRI
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING...WITH STRONG AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SBA/VTU/L.A. COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE
SANTA CLARITA VALLEY...SBA S COAST AND IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...
WHERE A HIGH WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRI THRU FRI NIGHT.
THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE BELOW AND THRU NW TO SE AND N TO S
ORIENTED PASSES AND CANYONS INCLUDING THE I-5 CORRIDOR IN NW L.A.
COUNTY INTO THE SANTA CLARITA VALLEY. PLEASE SEE LAXNPWLOX FOR
DETAILS. WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN NE OVER THE REGION FROM SAT
NIGHT AND SUN...BUT LOCAL GUSTY WINDS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE BELOW
AND THRU THE USUAL PASSES AND CANYONS. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW AND TROF
ALTHO SOME CLOUDS MAY BE POSSIBLE OVER THE L.A./VTU MOUNTAINS FROM
TIME TO TIME LATE FRI THRU SAT. TEMPS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST
ARE EXPECTED TO BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL FOR THE MOST PART
OVER THE WEEKEND.

..FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LONG TERM (MON-THU)...STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS APPEAR TO BE ON
MONDAY MORNING AND ADVISORIES ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE MTNS AND
VALLEYS. THE WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE IN ALL AREAS AS HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT NUDGES INTO NRN CA. OFFSHORE FLOW SLIGHTLY WEAKER ON
TUE BUT IT STILL WILL BE BREEZY IN THE USUAL AREAS. ANOTHER FEW
DEGREES OF WARMING EXPECTED EVERYWHERE AS HEIGHTS BUILD ALOFT. BY
WED AND THU GRADIENTS WILL TURN ONSHORE AS A TROF MOVES INTO THE PAC
NW AND HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS. COOLING WILL BEGIN WED FOR COASTS AND
VALLEYS WITH LITTLE CHANGE FOR THE MTNS AND DESERTS.

&&

.AVIATION...09/0718Z.
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD AT MOST COASTAL
TERMINALS NORTH OF POINT MUGU AND INLAND TERMINALS...WITH
OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT TONIGHT AT LOS ANGELES
COUNTY COASTAL TERMINALS. PERIODS OF LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR ARE
EXPECTED AT KSBA...KVNY...KBUR...WITH OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE ISSUES
AT MOST VALLEY AND DESERT TERMINALS..AND KSBA. OCCASIONAL REDUCED
VISIBILITIES IN BLOWING SAND WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KWJF AND KPMD
AFTER 20Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL.

KLAX...VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
TERMINAL THROUGHOUT 12Z TONIGHT...THEN VFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. EAST WINDS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 10
KNOTS TONIGHT...BUT THERE IS A 20 PERCENT THAT EAST WINDS COULD
EXCEED 10 KNOTS THROUGH 14Z.

KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD WITH
OCCASIONAL TURBULENCE AND LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR ISSUES.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING (SEE LAXRFWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...HALL/SIRARD/WOFFORD
AVIATION...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1218 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-110718-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
1218 AM PDT FRI OCT 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... REST OF TONIGHT

STRONG AND POTENTIALLY DANEROUS WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAIN AND DESERT AREA LATE TONIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITIES WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTERIOR VALLEYS. GALE FORCE
WINDS ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS WILL CREATE HAZARDS FOR
SEAFARERS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN SMALL CRAFT.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ON FRIDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CREATE DRIVING AND FIRE WEATHER
HAZARDS. THE WINDS WILL BE NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY IN DIRECTION
AND WILL PRIMARILY AFFECT THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE ANTELOPE
VALLEY...AND THE SANTA BARBARA SOUTH COAST. ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS
GALE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE HAZARDS FOR ALL BOATS. ALL
OF THE WIND HAZARDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE
DIMINISHING IN THE AFTERNOON. A MODERATE SANTA ANA EVENT WILL
PRODUCE HAZARDOUS NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH AND BELOW THE PASSES OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* RED FLAG WARNING...........SEE WWUS86 KLOX - RFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WATCH...............SEE WHUS76 KLOX - MWWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

HALL