Wind Advisory 208, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2008

.SHORT TERM (TUE-SAT)...
TEMPS UP A FEW DEGREES OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY...AS A 591 DM
HIGH OVER AZ NUDGED WESTWARD. THE EVER SO SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE
NRN CA COAST CONTINUES ITS TREK TOWARD WASHINGTON. IT DID PICKUP ON
A LITTLE BIT OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT LATEST SAT IMAGES SUGGEST
ALL MOISTURE WILL STAY TO THE NORTH. MARINE LAYER IS CURRENTLY
AROUND 1000 FT WITH A SOLID STRATUS FIELD OFF THE CENTRAL COAST AND
SOUTHWARD. EXPECTING COASTAL SECTIONS TO SEE A SIMILAR PICTURE ON
WED THAT WE SAW THIS MORNING...EXCEPT ADDING LA AND VTU COUNTY TO
THE MIX. CANNOT RULE OUT SOME LOCALLY DENSE FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE
SANTA YNEZ VALLEY.

AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES IN JUST BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED
LOW...NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE RISE. SOME BREEZY
CONDITIONS ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST TODAY WILL PRIME THINGS FOR
ANOTHER HEALTHY SUNDOWNER GRAD. THIS GRAD SHOULD STRENGTHEN TO THE
AROUND -5MB SBA-SMX AND THERE IS A HINT OF SOME DEEPER FLOW ALOFT.
THIS USUALLY ADDS UP TO A SLAM DUNK ADVISORY BUT LIKE LAST
NIGHT...THE WINDS WILL BATTLE THE STABLE MARINE INVERSION IN TRYING
TO SURFACE. BASED ON THE POTENTIAL OF RATHER STRONG WINDS WITH SUCH
A GRAD...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED AN ADVISORY EVEN THOUGH I AM NOT SOLD
THAT THE WINDS WILL MAKE IT INTO THE COASTAL SECTIONS. SUB ADVISORY
LEVEL WINDS LOOK TO RETURN AS WELL THROUGH THE I5 CORRIDOR LATER
TONIGHT.

WED AND THU STILL LOOK VERY SIMILAR TO TODAY...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE PARKING ITSELF OVER ARIZONA. NIGHT THROUGH MORNING STRATUS
WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST AND TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...
WITH ONLY A FEW DEGREES OF DAY TO DAY VARIATION. THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS
BEING THE CENTRAL COAST...WHERE SOME LIGHT MORNING NORTHEAST FLOW
MAY HELP THE STRATUS CLEAR OUT EARLIER AND WARM THINGS UP A BIT. THU
LOOKS THE BEST FOR THIS SCENARIO. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE AS
WELL AND SHOULD INCREASE IN STRENGTH...WITH LIKELY ADVISORY LEVEL
SUNDOWNERS IN SBA COUNTY EACH NIGHT...AND POSSIBLE ADVISORY LEVEL
FLOW THROUGH THE I5 CORRIDOR. THE CENTRAL COAST WILL REMAIN RATHER
BREEZY ALSO...AS NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS WILL THREATEN THE NEARBY
WATERS.

GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN IN AGREEMENT FOR FRI AND SAT...SHOWING A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMPLIFYING OFF THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW...THAT
THEN SWINGS DOWN INTO CA. THE 12Z GFS HAS A BIT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO ADD TO THIS. ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
REMAIN TO THE NORTH...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH TO SQUEEZE OUT SOME PARTLY
CLOUDY SKIES FRI NIGHT OVER SLO AND SBA CO. THE LOWERED THICKS FROM
THIS TROUGH WILL HELP COOL THE AIRMASS FRI INTO SAT...ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT TEMPS SHOULD ONLY COOL TO RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE...BUT
SHOULD WEAKEN FROM THU THANKS TO THE INCREASED ONSHORE GRADS. A
DEEPER MARINE LAYER SHOULD RESULT AS WELL WITH THE LOWER
HEIGHTS...AND SHOULD HAVE A BIT GREATER COVERAGE.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...
ONCE THIS TROUGH PASSES SAT NIGHT...THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ANOTHER
NICE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING WESTWARD FROM THE INTERIOR
SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A BIT OF DISCREPANCIES BETWEEN THE OPERATIONAL
AND ENSEMBLE MODELS AS TO WHERE THE CORE OF THIS RIDGE WILL
SETUP...WITH THE SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM ERN ARIZONA TO CENTRAL
NEVADA. ALTHOUGH WHERE EXACTLY THIS RIDGE DECIDES TO FALL WILL
IMPACT JUST HOW WARM WE GET...ANYTHING IN THIS RANGE WILL PUSH TEMPS
BACK TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE PLACEMENT WILL HOWEVER HAVE AN IMPACT
ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY MOIST SE FLOW ALOFT...WHICH WILL HAVE TO BE
KEPT AND EYE ON. LASTLY...ALTHOUGH THE STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE DOES
NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE TO HEALTH CONCERNING HEAT CONDITIONS...IT WILL
HAVE TO BE MONITORED.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1940Z.
LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED IN THE MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT WITH
COASTAL LOCATIONS LIKELY TO SEE MARINE CLOUDS NORTH OF POINT
CONCEPTION...WHILE TAF SITES SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION WILL HAVE FAR
LESS MARINE CLOUD COVERAGE. VALLEY AND DESERT TAF SITES WILL REMAIN
CLEAR THROUGH WED. GUSTY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE CENTRAL COAST THIS
AFTERNOON AND KSBA WILL EXPERIENCE LLWS DUE TO GUSTY WINDS BELOW
PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE SANTA YNEZ RANGE.

KLAX...GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE TAF THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND VISIBILITIES THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
302 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2008

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-021300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
302 PM PDT TUE JUL 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS FOR
MARINERS OVER THE OUTER WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. IN ADDITION...THESE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE PASSES AND CANYONS OF THE
SANTA YNEZ RANGE IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. THESE WINDS CAN CREATE
HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDS FOR MARINERS OVER THE
OUTER WATERS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOCALLY STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL
CREATE DRIVING HAZARDS FOR MOTORISTS ALONG THE I-5 CORRIDOR...THE
SAN MARCOS PASS...THE GAVIOTA PASS AND HIGHWAY 101 FROM SANTA
BARBARA THROUGH GAVIOTA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. OTHERWISE HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KITTELL