Wind Advisory 169, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
236 PM PST SAT FEB 23 2008

.SHORT TERM...CENTER OF THE 975MB LOW WAS POSITIONED 550 MILES
NORTHWEST OF POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOUNDING
OVER AREA WAS BECOMING SATURATED WHILE MODERATE ASCENDING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ACCELERATED BETWEEN THE CWA AND LOW CENTER. SURFACE
BOUNDARY WAS ACCELERATING EAST AROUND 30 KT AND CURRENT POSITION AND
SPEED THE BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ASHORE NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
AROUND SUNSET. SHORTLY THEREAFTER THE STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
DECELERATE. HAVE MOVED THE ENDING TIME TO THE HIGH WIND WARNING IN
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO 4 AM AND HAVE LEFT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
AND DESERT UNCHANGED. STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL LIKELY BECOME
MODERATE LATE TONIGHT WHILE THE SURFACE LOW FILLS AND APPROACHES
THE BAY AREA...THOUGH 70 KT GUSTS WILL PERSIST OVER THE HIGH
COUNTRY AS 120KT JET...FARTHER UPSTREAM THIS AFTERNOON...MOVES
ASHORE LATE SUN MORNING. LITTLE CHANGE IN QPF MAINLY IN TIMING AND
HAVE MOVED UP THE HEAVY RAIN DEVELOPING SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION
TO EARLY IN THE EVENING. HAVE INCREASED POPS TO CATEGORICAL OVER
THE ENTIRE AREA SUNDAY AND WIDESPREAD SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AT 5.5KFT
MAY EXCEED ADVISORY THRESHOLDS. ALSO INCLUDED CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS
NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND SLIGHT CHANCE SOUTH
SUNDAY...INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL AND EXPECT STEEPER LAPSE RATES
FARTHER NORTH. HAVE INCREASED POPS SUNDAY NIGHT WAS WELL AS
STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW SQUEEZES OUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE. MADE
MINOR CHANGES THEREAFTER. WILL CONTINUE WITH WARMING TREND.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY WARM TO 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS TUE WHILE A LONG WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...WILL CONTINUE DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD AND MADE A MINOR
CHANGE. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH
HAVE INDICATED A COOLING TREND SAT WHILE THE LONG WAVE RIDGE
WEAKENS AND ALLOWS A COOLER AIR MASS TO ADVANCE SOUTH.

&&

.AVIATION...23/1800Z.
VFR CATS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...BEFORE THE
FRONTAL PRECIP PUSHES INTO SLO COUNTY. RAIN SHOULD BEGIN AROUND 23Z
AT KPRB...THEN PUSH QUICKLY DOWN TO KLAX BY AROUND 07Z TO 09Z. ONCE
RAIN BEGINS...NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF A LET UP THROUGH 18Z SUN...BUT
FLIGHT CATS WILL VARY. HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD ISSUE IN IFR CATS WITH
CIGS BLW 010 AND VIS BLW 2SM...BUT COULD BRIEFLY TOUCH LIFR...
ESPECIALLY NORTH OF PT CONCEPTION...AND AT KBUR AND KVNY. STRONG S
TO SE WINDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED...AND CANNOT RULE OUT LLWS CONCERNS...
ESPECIALLY JUST AHEAD AND BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL BAND.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUN AFTER 12Z. FREEZING LEVEL...SHOULD
REMAIN ABOVE 7000 THROUGH 12Z. KPMD MAY RECEIVE PERIODS OF GUSTS
ABOVE 40 KT AFTER 14Z DUE TO WAVE ACTIVITY.

KLAX...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GO
IFR/MVFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AT AROUND 07Z. WINDS WILL
REMAIN E TO SE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS...AND NOT EXPECTING A
WESTERLY COMPONENT AT ALL TODAY. WINDS WILL GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT AFTER
ABOUT 07Z...AND LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN.

.KBUR...VFR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN GO
IFR/MVFR WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE FRONT AT AROUND 07Z. LIFR IS
POSSIBLE UNDER THE HEAVIEST RAIN...ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z.
SE WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH PERIOD...BUT WILL BECOME GUSTY AFTER
AROUND 07Z...AND LLWS MAY BE A CONCERN.

&&

.MARINE...STRONG SE WINDS HAVE RESULTED IN STORM AND GALE WARNINGS
IN EFFECT...AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. STRONGEST WINDS WITH
GUSTS TO 50 KT ARE EXPECTED BETWEEN 1PM AND 9PM THIS EVENING NORTH
OF POINT CONCEPTION. THE FOCUS THEN TURNS TO A VERY LARGE WESTERLY
SWELL THAT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 20 AND 25
FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND BETWEEN 12 AND 20 FEET ACROSS THE
INNER WATERS. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH SURF ALONG
WEST FACING BEACHES. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...SURF OF 15-20 FEET
WITH LOCAL SETS TO 25 FEET ARE POSSIBLE...WHILE HEIGHTS OF 10-15
FEET WITH LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET ARE POSSIBLE TO THE SOUTH. PLEASE
REFER TO LAXMWSLOX AND LAXCFWLOX FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT
THE WINDS/SWELL AND SURF.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
STORM WARNING (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...KITTELL

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