Wind Advisory 168, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
300 AM PST SAT FEB 23 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
AN ALMOST TEXT-BOOK APPEARANCE TO THE STORM SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING
RAIN AND WIND TO THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND WRF
ARE ON THE SAME PAGE WITH REGARD TO THE TIMING OF PRECIP WITH THIS
STORM. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN SHOULD BEGIN ACROSS SLO/SBA
COUNTIES SOMETIME THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE RAIN DEVELOPING ACROSS
VTU/LAX COUNTIES THIS EVENING...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ON
SUNDAY. BOTH MODELS INDICATE VERY STRONG SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME NICE RAINFALL
TOTALS IN OROGRAPHICALLY ENHANCED AREAS. AT THIS TIME...STILL LIKE
PREVIOUS SHIFTS IDEAS ABOUT 0.50 TO 1.50 ACROSS COASTAL/VALLEY
AREAS WITH 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER GIVEN THE
STRENGTH OF THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME
MOUNTAIN AREAS RECEIVE MORE THAN 3 INCHES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL
RAINFALL TOTALS AND RAINFALL RATES...BELIEVE BURN AREAS WILL BE AT
RISK FOR MUD/DEBRIS FLOWS. SO...WILL ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
THE BURN AREAS OF SBA/VTU/LAX COUNTIES WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE.
SNOW LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET TODAY AND TONIGHT
THEN DROP TO AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET ON SUNDAY. WILL HOLD OFF ON
ANY WINTER STORM PRODUCTS AT THIS TIME AS THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE ANTICIPATED AT THE RESORT LEVELS.

ALONG WITH THE RAINFALL...THIS STORM WILL BRING SOME VERY
SIGNIFICANT WINDS TO THE AREA. 00Z GFS/WRF INDICATE LOW LEVEL WINDS
BETWEEN 30 AND 50 KNOTS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS SLO/SBA COUNTIES...AS WELL
AS THE VTU/LAX MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY. WILL UPGRADE HIGH
WIND WATCHES TO HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THESE AREAS WITH THE MORNING
PACKAGE. ALSO...WILL ISSUE WIND ADVISORY FOR OTHER AREAS AS THE
WINDS WILL BE PLENTY GUSTY OUTSIDE THE WARNING AREAS.

BY SUNDAY NIGHT...THE RAIN THREAT SHOULD END ACROSS THE AREA...
EXCEPT FOR NORTH-FACING MOUNTAINS SLOPES...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.

TEMPS WILL REMAIN RATHER COOL TODAY AND SUNDAY DUE TO CLOUDS AND
RAIN. ON MONDAY...WILL EXPECT A NOTICEABLE WARMUP DUE TO CLEAR
SKIES AND SOME WEAK OFFSHORE GRADIENTS MONDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD AS VARYING DEGREES OF OFFSHORE FLOW
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...IT LOOKS LIKE TEMPS
THROUGH THE PERIOD SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY LIKELY THE WARMEST DAYS. ALSO...THE OFFSHORE
FLOW WILL PRODUCE SOME GUSTY CANYON WINDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...WINDS WOULD ONLY BE EXPECTED TO REACH ADVISORY LEVELS AT
WORST THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...WILL BE UPDATED SHORTLY

&&

.MARINE...INTERESTING FEW DAYS ON TAP FOR THE MARINE FORECAST. IN
THE IMMEDIATE SHORT TERM...STRONG WINDS WILL BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH STORM AND GALE
WARNINGS AS WELL AS SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT.

AFTER THE WIND THREAT DIMINISHES...THE FOCUS TURNS TO A VERY LARGE
WESTERLY SWELL THAT MOVES INTO THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY AND
CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY. SWELL HEIGHTS WILL PEAK BETWEEN 20 AND
25 FEET ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS...AND BETWEEN 12 AND 20 FEET ACROSS
THE INNER WATERS. THIS LARGE SWELL WILL PRODUCE VERY HIGH SURF ALONG
WEST FACING BEACHES. ALONG THE CENTRAL COAST...SURF OF 15-20 FEET
WITH LOCAL SETS TO 25 FEET ARE EXPECTED...WHILE ALONG THE BEACHES OF
SOUTHERN SBA...VTU AND LAX COUNTIES SURF HEIGHTS OF 10-15 FEET WITH
LOCAL SETS TO 18 FEET CAN BE EXPECTED. PLEASE REFER TO LAXMWSLOX AND
LAXCFWLOX FOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ABOUT THE WINDS/SWELL AND SURF.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
STORM WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...KAPLAN

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
305 PM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-231400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
305 PM PST FRI FEB 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A THUNDERSTORM WILL LINGER AND FLURRIES WILL
DEVELOP OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS
5500 FEET THIS MORNING WILL RISE TO 7000 FEET OR ABOVE EARLY IN THE
EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA.
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE AT TIMES AND STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY. RAIN
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL COAST BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...REACHING THE LOS ANGELES BASIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. RAIN WILL TURN TO SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
RAINFALL MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH RATES POSSIBLY HIGH ENOUGH TO
CAUSE MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW IN AND BELOW THE BURN AREAS. STRONG
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA
BARBARA COUNTIES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES AS WELL AS THE DESERT SATURDAY
NIGHT AND A HIGH WIND WATCH WAS ISSUED. RAIN TOTALS RANGE FROM 0.75
TO 1.50 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH 2.00 TO 3.00 INCHES
ACROSS SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FACING SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS. SNOW LEVELS
WILL LIKELY BE OVER 7000 FEET FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION.
VERY LARGE NORTHWESTERLY SWELL WILL APPROACH SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SUNDAY MORNING...AND SURF WILL BUILD TO 15 TO 20 FEET...OCCASIONAL
25 FEET NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND 10 TO 15 FEET OCCASIONAL 18
FEET SOUTH.

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* COASTAL FLOOD WATCH........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

30/SIRARD