Wind Advisory 159, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1000 PM PST FRI JAN 25 2008

UPDATE TO ADD NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION

...STRONG PACIFIC STORM ON TAP FOR THE SOUTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT
   THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...

.SHORT TERM...INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR A STORMY PERIOD FOR
THE SOUTHLAND SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. IN THE SHORT
TERM...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWER ACTIVITY...
MAINLY NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CURRENTLY CENTERED ABOUT 500 MILES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
COAST WILL SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
SYSTEM WILL INTERACT WITH A STRONG 130 KNOT SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM
THAT WILL BE POINTED RIGHT TOWARDS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT. THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE...WITH PW VALUES PROJECTED TO BE IN EXCESS OF 1.1 INCHES
ON SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STRONG JET WILL PROVIDE STRONG DYNAMICAL
SUPPORT ON SATURDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL DRAMATICALLY ENHANCE RAINFALL
INTENSITIES AND GIVE THE THREAT OF EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE STRONG LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL PROVIDE SIGNIFICANT OROGRAPHIC ENHANCEMENT...ESPCECIALLY THE
SOUTH FACING SLOPES. IN FACT...LATEST 00Z WRF SHOWS VERY IMPRESSIVE
SOUTHERLY 850 MB WINDS OF 60 KNOTS FROM SBA TO LA COUNTIES ON
SATURDAY NIGHT.

BEHIND THE MAIN FRONT...A COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL BRING THE
THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
IN FACT...CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS BEGINNING TO LOOK FAVORABLE FOR
POSSIBLE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SOME OF
THESE PARAMETERS INCLUDE A VERY STRONG SUBTROPICAL JET JUST TO OUR
SOUTH...LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN 0 AND -2...500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND
-26 DEGREES CELSIUS...AND CAPE VALUES AROUND 500 J/KG. ALSO...A LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW COMBINED WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL CREATE FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILE FOR POSSIBLE ROTATING STORMS. AS
A RESULT...CONDITIONS LOOK FAVORABLE FOR POSSIBLE WATERSPOUTS AND
ISOLATED SMALL TORNADOS ON SUNDAY. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT REGARDING THE POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER
RISK.

OVERALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS
COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION...WITH 4 TO 8
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SOUTH FACING SLOPES
WILL LIKELY RECEIVE THE HIGHEST RAINFALL TOTALS. DURING THE HEIGHT
OF THE STORM...RAINFALL INTENSITIES BETWEEN ONE HALF INCH AND ONE
INCH PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES POSSIBLE
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES. THIS ANTICIPATED
HIGH INTENSITY RAINFALL WILL BRING A HIGH RISK OF SIGNIFICANT AND
DANGEROUS DEBRIS FLOW CONDITIONS TO THE BURN AREAS. IN
ADDITION...NON BURN AREAS WILL ALSO BE AT RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING IN
THE FORM OF SIGNIFICANT AND DANGEROUS ROADWAY FLOODING...CREEKS
OVERFLOWING THEIR BANKS...AND SUBSTANTIAL MUD AND ROCK SLIDE
ACTIVITY. FLOODING POTENTIAL GREATLY INCREASED FOR ALL OF SANTA
BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES DUE TO SATURATED GROUND
CONDITIONS AND SUBSTANTIAL SNOWMELT. WILL HAVE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING POTENTIAL AS WELL...SINCE NEXT ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL COULD BRING SOME POINTS TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE. PLEASE
REFER TO THE LATEST FLASH FLOOD WATCH PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS.

THE CONCERN FOR SNOWMELT WILL OCCUR SINCE THE DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW
IS EXPECTED TO LIFT SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET ON
SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW LEVELS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO LOWER TO AROUND 5000
FEET ON SUNDAY...AND LOCALLY DOWN TO 4000 FEET IN HEAVIER SHOWERS OR
THUNDERSTORMS. AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 FEET OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED FOR
THE SKI RESORTS...WITH SOME HIGHER PEAKS EXPECTED TO RECEIVE OVER 3
FEET OF ADDITIONAL SNOW. SNOW COULD LOCALLY FALL ALONG INTERSTATE 5
NEAR THE GRAPEVINE ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE HEAVY SNOW
POTENTIAL...THERE WILL BE VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH ON
SATURDAY NIGHT THAT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST WINTER STORM
WATCH PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS ON WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

IN ADDITION TO THE STRONG WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...GUSTY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA ON SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME COASTAL AND VALLEY AREAS EXPECTING WIND GUSTS OVER
50 MPH. A HIGH WIND WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN POSTED FOR THE SBA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS...AND SANTA CLARITA
VALLEY...WHERE GUSTS OVER 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...PORTIONS OF SLO COUNTY CAN EXPECT WIND GUSTS OVER 60 MPH
TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LASTEST HIGH
WIND WARNING/HIGH WIND WATCH PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS ON THE WIND
POTENTIAL.

CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND WATERSPOUTS...AND HIGH WIND WAVES. PLEASE REFER
TO THE LATEST MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT FOR MORE DETAILS.

*** LONG TERM FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.LONG TERM...WILL CONTINUE WITH A LOW POPS WED AND HAVE INCLUDED
LOW POPS ON FRI AS WELL. BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH CENTERED DOWNSTREAM
WILL PERSIST AND A WEAK SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE WITHIN
THE NORTHWEST FLOW EXTENDING OVER THE EASTERN PAC WED AND AGAIN
FRI. HAVE MENTIONED LOW POPS AT THIS TIME AS A LONG WAVE RIDGE IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST AMD AMPLIFY OVER THE CENTRAL PAC AND DESICCATE
THE SYSTEMS MIGRATING EAST. OTHERWISE TEMPERATURES 5 TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW SEASONAL NORMAL WILL LIKELY PERSIST.

&&

.AVIATION...26/0552Z...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL AIRFIELDS
THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM TO AFFECT THE
REGION WILL MOVE IN LATE SAT AND SAT EVENING WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOPING WITH LOW CIGS AND RAIN AFT ABOUT 03Z AT KLAX...KLGB...
KBUR AND KVNY.

FOR KLAX...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 03Z THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP. E WINDS 10 TO 12 KT ARE EXPECTED FROM 09Z TO
19Z...WITH E WINDS LESS THAN 10 KT CONTINUING THRU 03Z. SE WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 12 KT AGAIN AFT 03Z.

FOR KBUR...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THRU 03Z THEN MVFR CONDITIONS
WILL DEVELOP. SE WINDS TO 10 KT WILL PREVAIL AFT 20Z SAT.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
HIGH WIND WATCH (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
STORM WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...GOMBERG/30
AVIATION...SIRARD

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
945 PM PST FRI JAN 25 2008

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-261400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
929 PM PST FRI JAN 25 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH DAY 1. SUSTAINED SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH WINDS BETWEEN 20
AND 40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS...VERY STRONG SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
WINDS WILL CONTINUE. STORM FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE OUTER WATERS FROM POINT PIEDRAS BLANCAS TO POINT ARGUELLO
WHILE THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS WILL EXPERIENCE GALE FORCE
WINDS THROUGH THE DAY 1 PERIOD. HIGH WIND WAVES WILL COMBINE
WITH ABOVE NORMAL SWELLS TO PRODUCE VERY ROUGH SEAS ACROSS THE
ENTIRE COASTAL WATERS.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* STORM WARNING..............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

ANOTHER POTENT WINTER STORM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
AND WINDS TO THE AREA...BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL TURN TO MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. ON SUNDAY...VERY COLD AND UNSTABLE AIR
BEHIND THE MAIN FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA. OVERALL...RAINFALL AMOUNTS WITH THIS
NEXT SYSTEM ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM 2-4 INCHES ACROSS COASTAL
AREAS TO 4-8 INCHES IN THE FOOTHILLS AND MOUNTAINS. SOME MORE
FAVORED SOUTH-FACING SLOPES COULD EVEN RECEIVE MORE THAN 8 INCHES
OF RAINFALL. RAINFALL INTENSITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE QUITE HIGH
BETWEEN ONE HALF AND ONE INCH PER HOUR...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER RATES
LIKELY WITH STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND EVEN WATERSPOUTS OR TORNADOS. SNOW
LEVELS WILL START OUT BETWEEN 6000 AND 7000 FEET SATURDAY NIGHT...
BUT WILL FALL TO AROUND 4000 FEET ON SUNDAY...AND COULD EVEN BE
LOWER NEAR HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL ALSO PACK POWERFUL WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY. AS THE SYSTEM DRAWS CLOSER...STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL
OCCUR IN THE MOUNTAINS...WHERE THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OVER 70 MPH. THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH ACROSS SOME OF THE COASTAL AND VALLEY
LOCATIONS...WHICH COULD DOWN MANY TREES...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE
SATURATED SOILS. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST HIGH WIND WARNING/WIND
ADVISORY PRODUCT FOR MORE DETAILS ON WIND POTENTIAL.

* HIGH WIND WARNING..........SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH WIND WATCH............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* WINTER STORM WATCH.........SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* STORM WARNING..............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THOMPSON/GOMBERG