Gale Warning 44, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
400 AM PST MON DEC 8 2008

...NEW AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER LOW IS OVER IMPERIAL COUNTY AND STRONG NW FLOW HAS SETTLED
OVER CALIFORNIA. ITS BREEZY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND THE ANTELOPE VLY
BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA ALTHOUGH SOME
EXPOSED RIDGE TOPS (THINK WHITAKER PEAK) COULD SEE SOME ADVISORY
LEVEL GUSTS. MARINE CLOUDS WELL FORMED NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION BUT
ONLY SLOWLY COMING TOGETHER SOUTH OF POINT CONCEPTION AND DUE TO
NORTH WINDS NOT AT ALL OVER SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. WITH ALL THE LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND ACCELERATING ONSHORE FLOW LOOK FOR SLOW CLEARING
AND LIKELY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES IN THE AFTERNOON. ONSHORE FLOW AND
552 THICKNESS WILL MAKE FOR A COOL DAY WITH MOST LOCATIONS 5 OR SO
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

OVERNIGHT A LARGE SFC HIGH BEGINS TO SLIDE DOWN INTO NEVADA. NOT
SOON ENOUGH TO PREVENT A MARINE LAYER FROM FORMING THOUGH AND MOST
COASTS AND VLYS WILL SEE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

TUESDAY HOWEVER THE LOW CLOUDS WILL NOT LAST LONG AS A GOOD OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS WILL BE GONE BY MID MORNING AND GOOD WINDS
WILL DEVELOP. LIKELY REACHING ADVISORY LEVELS OVER THE NORTHEAST
FAVORED LOCATIONS AS THERE IS GOOD UPPER SUPPORT ALTHOUGH NOT MUCH
IN THE WAY OF THERMAL SUPPORT. TEMPS WILL SHOOT UP AROUND 10 DEGREES
FROM MONDAYS VALUES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAYS WITH OFFSHORE FLOW
KEEPING THE MARINE LAYER AT BAY AND ADDING SOME COMPRESSIONAL
HEATING TO THE MIX. THIS SHOULD PUSH MOST MAX TEMPS INTO THE LOWER
80S OVER THE COASTS AND VLYS. THERE WILL BE SOME CANYON WINDS EACH
MORNING BUT WITH NO UPPER SUPPORT THE WINDS WILL BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA.

.LONG TERM...

NO PROBLEMS FRIDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES SO CLEAR SKIES BUT THE
UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT AWAY AND WITH LOWER HGTS TEMPS WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES.

THE ETA AND THE GFS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NOW. BOTH INDICATE AN
IMPULSE MOVING INTO NW WASHINGTON STATE AND SETTING UP AN ENORMOUS
CYCLONIC FLOW PATTERN FROM JUNEAU AK TO SAN DIEGO. THE LOW ELONGATES
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND PUSHES A GREAT DEAL OF COLD AIR INTO
CALIFORNIA WITH 537 DM H5 HGTS FCST NEXT MONDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE THE
GFS AND THE EC DO AGREE FAIRLY WELL THE GFS ENSEMBLES DO VARY WILDLY
STARTING SATURDAY SO WOULD EXPECT THE EXACT FORECAST TO NOT EXACTLY
GO AS PLANNED TODAY.

SATURDAY A WEAK FRONT DIES OVER CENTRAL CA AND WASHES OVER SOCAL.
THIS WILL START A COOLING TREND AND COULD BRING SOME NORTH WINDS TO
THE AREA.

SUNDAY LOOKS DRY AND COOL AS A LOW SETS UP OVER OREGON BUT
THICKNESSES DROP TO 540 DM. RIGHT NOW IT LOOKS LIKE RAIN CHANCES
WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...

08/1200Z.

MOIST LAYER UP TO NEAR 3000 FEET WILL CREATE MVFR CIGS OVER MOST
AREAS THIS MORNING. SCT-BKN CONDS ARE LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON OVER ALL
COASTS AND VLYS BRINGING MVFR CIGS TO A SOME LOCATIONS. SOME NORTH
WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL CREATE LOCAL TURBULENCE. MVFR CIGS WILL
QUICKLY REFORM THIS EVENING BUT A BUILDING OFFSHORE EVENT WILL JUST
AS QUICKLY CLEAR THE SKIES AROUND SUNRISE.

KLAX...ONLY SO SO CONFIDENCE IN TAF THROUGH 00Z. SKIES WILL LIKELY
FLUCTUATE BETWEEN SCT AND BKN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BUT THERE IS A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF TOTAL CLEARING BY 17Z.

KBUR...BKN CONDS WILL LIKELY LAST UNTIL NEAR NOON. THERE WILL BE A
30 PERCENT CHANCE OF BRIEF BKN MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...BRUNO

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
831 AM PST MON DEC 8 2008

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-091400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
831 AM PST MON DEC 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE ANTELOPE VALLEY TODAY.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SANTA ANA WINDS WILL CREATE HAZARDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

WOFFORD