Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Los Angeles, CA

000 
WGUS76 KLOX 012208
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
308 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

CAC037-111-012245-
/O.CON.KLOX.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-081101T2245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-VENTURA CA-
308 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS REMAINS 
IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM PDT FOR THE SESNON BURN AREA OF EXTREME EAST 
CENTRAL VENTURA AND WEST CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...

AT 254 PM PDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THAT 
SHOWERS WERE DECREASING OVER THE BURN AREA...BUT MORE SHOWERS AND 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO BUILD TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE REGION. 
THESE WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD PASS OVER THE BURN 
AREA IN THE NEXT HOUR. THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR FLASH 
FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT UNTIL 345 PM PDT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3435 11869 3434 11847 3423 11849 3423 11870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2201Z 180DEG 0KT 3430 11860

$$

DANIELSON

000 
WGUS56 KLOX 012244
FFWLOX
CAC037-111-020045-
/O.EXT.KLOX.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-081102T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
344 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN OXNARD HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...

* FLASH FLOOD AND DEBRIS FLOWS FOR THE SESNON BURN AREA IN EXTREME 
EASTERN VENTURA COUNTY AND WESTERN LOS ANGELES COUNTY...
  
* UNTIL 545 PM PDT

* AT 336 PM PDT...DOPPLER RADARS SHOWED THAT SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED 
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE SESNON BURN 
AREA. THEREFORE...THE WARNING FOR FLASH FLOODS AND DEBRIS FLOWS HAS 
BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 545 PM PDT. 

RESIDENTS IN OR BELOW THE SESNON BURN AREA NEED TO BE PREPARED FOR 
POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING AND DEBRIS FLOWS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE 
INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER AND DEBRIS COVERS THE ROADWAY. THE WATER 
DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY. MOVE TO 
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3435 11869 3434 11847 3423 11849 3423 11870
TIME...MOT...LOC 2241Z 180DEG 0KT 3430 11860

$$

DANIELSON

000 
WGUS76 KLOX 020042
FFSLOX

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
542 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

CAC037-111-020046-
/O.EXP.KLOX.FF.W.0028.000000T0000Z-081102T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
LOS ANGELES CA-VENTURA CA-
542 PM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR DEBRIS FLOWS FROM THE SESNON BURN 
AREA WILL EXPIRE AT 545 PM PDT FOR THE BURN AREAS OF EXTREME EAST 
CENTRAL VENTURA AND WEST CENTRAL LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...

HEAVY RAIN FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS EXITED THE SAN 
FERNANDO VALLEY AND THE SESNON BUR AREA. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR 
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOW WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...BUT LOCALIZED 
FLOODING MAY STILL OCCUR OR BE OCCURRING IN PORTIONS OF THE BURN 
SCAR. RESIDENTS IN THE VICNITY OF THE SESNON BURN AREA ARE URGED TO 
STAY OUT OF DRAINAGES.

LAT...LON 3435 11869 3434 11847 3423 11849 3423 11870
TIME...MOT...LOC 0036Z 180DEG 0KT 3430 11860

$$

HALL

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1155 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

CORRECTED AVIATION DISCUSSION

.UPDATE...HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE RECENT BURN AREAS
IN SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA...AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES FOR TODAY.
ENHANCED CONVECTION CENTERED OVER VENTURA COUNTY AND TRAINING IN
NATURE WILL LIKELY PERSIST TODAY. HIGHEST RAIN RATES WERE NEAR ONE
HALF INCH AN HOUR AT THIS TIME AND EXPECT CENTER LINE TO SHIFT
GRADUALLY EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND HIGHEST RATES WILL LIKELY
SHIFT OVER LOS ANGELES COUNTY.

.SHORT TERM...YET ANOTHER TOUGH FORECAST FOR TODAY AS A COMPLEX
PATTERN CONTINUES TO PLAGUE THE AREA. A STRONG UPPER LOW CENTERED
ABOUT 500 NM WSW OF SEATTLE WAS BEGINNING TO LIFT NNEWD THIS
MORNING. PLENTY OF MOISTURE CONTD TO STREAM INTO THE FCST AREA IN
THE DEEP SWLY FLOW ON THE SERN SIDE OF THIS UPPER LOW. THE UPPER
PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DIFFLUENT OVER THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS. THIS HAS CAUSED SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS...WHICH HAVE BEGUN TO SPREAD INTO THE FCST
AREA...WITH THE FOCUS OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS SERN SBA...VTU AND NWRN
L.A. COUNTIES. SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED SIGNIFICANT CLOUD TOP
COOLING WITH AN IMPRESSIVE CLUSTER OF SHOWER AND TSTMS POISED TO
PUSH ONSHORE INTO SBA AND VTU COUNTIES BEFORE DAYBREAK. THESE
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING IN THE REGION OF BEST UPPER LVL
DIFFLUENCE...AND IN THIS REGION...THERE WAS ALSO A TONGUE
OF HIGHER PW VALUES...NEAR 1.5 INCHES. THE WRF SHOWED FAIRLY HIGH
K INDEX VALUES OFF THE CST EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH THE CORE OF
HIGHEST VALUES SPREADING INTO AREAS S OF PT CONCEPTION BETWEEN 12
AND 18Z.

WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE GONE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS S OF
PT CONCEPTION TODAY...WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS MORE ISOLATED IN
NATURE N OF PT CONCEPTION. THE MAIN BATCH OF SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
PROBABLY MOVE THROUGH THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING...BUT WITH THE
THREAT OF ADDITIONAL ACTIVITY DEVELOPING...WILL JUST CARRY THE
THREAT THROUGH THE DAY. ALTHOUGH CELLS WERE MOVING VERY
QUICKLY...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE BURN AREAS CLOSELY...AS THERE
APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME VERY HEAVY TO INTENSE RAINFALL
WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE
TODAY DUE TO THE SHOWERY NATURE OF THE PRECIP. EXPECT MOST AREAS TO
RECEIVE ONE QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS TODAY...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE
SURPRISED IF SOME PORTIONS OF SBA AND WRN VTU COUNTIES RECEIVE
OVER ONE HALF INCH IN TSTMS.

AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS TOWARD BRITISH COLUMBIA LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT...ITS ASSOCD FRONTAL BAND WILL EDGE INTO THE AREA. STEADY
RAIN WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ACROSS SLO AND NRN SBA COUNTIES THIS
EVENING OR EARLY TONIGHT...THEN CONT INTO SUN MORNING. WITH DECENT
MID LVL DYNAMICS AND A STRONG JET AIMED INTO THE CENTRAL COAST...THE
RAIN COULD BE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES. HOWEVER...LATEST
COMPUTER MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY NORTH WITH THE BEST
DYNAMICS...SO EXPECT THE MOST SIGNIFICANT RAIN TO FALL ACROSS SLO
COUNTY...SPECIFICALLY THE NWRN SECTIONS. RAIN WILL TURN TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS N OF PT CONCEPTION BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL KEEP THE THREAT OF SHOWERS CONTG THRU THE DAY. THE FRONT
IS FCST TO REALLY WEAKEN SWIFTLY LATE TONIGHT AS IT PUSHES S OF PT
CONCEPTION...AND THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF DOUBT AS TO WHETHER
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAIN FALLS ACROSS VTU AND L.A.
COUNTIES FROM THE FRONT ITSELF LATE TONIGHT/SUN. FOR NOW...WILL
KEEP THE CHANCE POPS AS IS FOR L.A./VTU COUNTIES FOR LATE
TONIGHT/SUN. EXPECT RAINFALL FROM THE FRONT ITSELF TO TOTAL ONE
QUARTER TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH ACROSS SLO AND SBA
COUNTIES...WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ACROSS SLO COUNTY. LOCAL
TOTALS OVER ONE INCH ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NWRN SLO
COUNTY. DO NOT EXPECT SNOW TO BE MUCH OF A THREAT AS SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD REMAIN WELL ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE BULK OF THE PRECIP
EVENT. THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT COOLING ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA ON
SUNDAY.

MOIST WEAKLY CYCLONIC WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH MON. WILL KEEP A SLIGHT THREAT OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA SUN NIGHT...THEN WILL CONTINUE THIS THREAT FOR AREAS N OF PT
CONCEPTION AND FOR THE MTNS (ESPECIALLY THE NRN SLOPES) INTO MON. IT
WILL CONT TO BE QUITE COOL ACROSS THE REGION ON MON.

.LONG TERM...MODELS HAVE ALL TRENDED STRONGER AND FARTHER S WITH THE
NEXT UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PAC NW MON NIGHT...AND BRING DEEPER
MOISTURE FARTHER S ACROSS CA. IT NOW APPEARS TO WARRANT A CHANCE OF
RAIN N OF PT CONCEPTION MON NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE...WITH AT LEAST A
SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS L.A./VTU COUNTIES LATE MON NIGHT/TUE MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD CLEAR TUE AFTERNOON...BUT IT STILL WILL BE QUITE COOL.
HEIGHTS WILL BEGIN TO RISE ACROSS THE REGION ON WED AS A RIDGE
AMPLIFIES IN THE PAC...AND SOME SLIGHT WARMING SHOULD BEGIN...WITH
MOSTLY CLEAR TO PTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED. MORE SIGNIFICANT WARMING
IS EXPECTED THU AS HEIGHTS CONT TO RISE AND GRADS TURN WKLY
OFFSHORE...WITH TEMPS CONTG TO WARM A BIT ON FRI.

&&

.AVIATION...01/1955Z.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE IN VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES FOR THE REST OF THE
DAY...ALTHOUGH VENTURA COUNTY MAY ONLY SEE THE ACTIVITY THROUGH
ABOUT MID AFTERNOON. MENTIONED THE THREAT OF VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...HOPEFULLY THE
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BEFORE THEN.

KLAX AND KBUR...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM LASTS THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A RESPITE IN THE ACTIVITY FOR TONIGHT
BEFORE A 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF A GENERAL LIGHT RAIN MOVES IN SOMETIME
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. MVFR TO LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TODAY FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS ARE ONLY EXPECTED SHOULD A THUNDERSTORM
TAKE DIRECT AIM ON AN AIRFIELD.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...BRUNO/30
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1132 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

CAZ034>041-044>046-051>054-059-087-088-547-548-021400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN FERNANDO VALLEY-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY SAN GABRIEL VALLEY-
1132 AM PDT SAT NOV 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THERE WILL BE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. LOCALLY
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THUNDERSTORMS. A
FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CAUSE STEADY RAIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS SAN
LUIS OBISPO AND SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES THIS EVENING OR EARLY
TONIGHT...WITH RAIN CONTINUING LOCALLY HEAVY AT TIMES THROUGH THE
NIGHT. ACROSS VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...THERE IS A CHANCE
OF RAIN TONIGHT.

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD ADVISORY.............SEE WGUS86 KLOX - FLSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN ON SUNDAY...THEN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY.

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

30