Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
1200 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

SHORT TERM...
NO CHANGES NEEDED TO THIS MORNINGS FORECAST. MORNING SOUNDINGS
CONFIRM A RATHER MOIST ATMOSPHERE WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS. PW VALUES
BETWEEN 1.4 AND 1.8 INCHES LOOK UP FROM YESTERDAY AND WINDS ARE
MOSTLY LESS THAN 10 KT FROM THE SURFACE UP TO 20K FT. BASED ON THESE
TWO FACTORS AND THE FLOODING THAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT...FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES REMAINS IN PLAY FOR PORTIONS OF LA/VTU AND SBA COUNTIES...
INCLUDING THE MOST RECENT BURN AREAS. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM
SHOULD PRODUCE SOME HEAVY AND FAIRLY STATIONARY DOWNPOURS. THE
REMAINING WILDCARD TO THIS IS THE CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL
CLOUDS STREAMING IN FROM THE EAST...AND THE PREVIOUS CONCERNS OF
LESS DAYTIME HEATING LOOKS SPOT ON. AT THIS POINT...WILL HAVE TO
JUST WAIT AND SEE HOW MUCH THINGS BUBBLE UP THIS AFTERNOON.

...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

IN AREAS NOT COVERED BY THE WATCH...THERE IS STILL A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY DUE TO CLOUD COVER...BUT WILL PROBABLY
BE DOWN SOME FROM THOSE REACHED ON SAT.

THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. A LOOK AT THE LATEST MODEL RUNS SHOWS THAT THE GFS HAS COME
IN LINE WITH THE WRF IN MAINTAINING WK ELY FLOW ALF ACROSS THE
AREA ON MONDAY...WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE...THOUGH NOT QUITE AS MUCH
AS TODAY. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE IN THE FCST FOR THE MTNS AND
DESERTS...BUT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO INCREASE THOSE POPS...AND ADD
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO AT LEAST THE VLYS. THE MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN
DISRUPTED TONIGHT/MON MORNING...WITH LOW CLOUDS LIKELY PATCHY IN
NATURE AND CONFINED TO CSTL SXNS.

MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO TURN MORE NWLY ON TUE...AND MODELS SHOW
CONSIDERABLY LESS MOISTURE THRU THE ATMOSPHERE. HOWEVER...IT IS NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT SOME TSTMS COULD DEVELOP EVEN TUE AFTERNOON
IN THE MTNS AND THE ANTELOPE VLY. WILL LET LATER SHIFTS ASSESS THAT
THREAT. TEMPS SHOULD BE UP A BIT IN MOST AREAS ON TUE THANKS TO THE
DRIER ATMOSPHERE...AND SLIGHT HEIGHT RISES.

.LONG TERM...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE SWRN STATES WILL BEGIN TO
EXPAND INTO THE AREA WED...AND RISING HEIGHTS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
SLIGHT WARMING IN MOST AREAS. NIGHT THRU MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE CSTL PLAIN. THEN...EXPECT MOSTLY
MINOR DAY TO DAY CHANGES IN THE NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS COVERAGE
AND IN MAX TEMPS THRU SAT AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES LITTLE. A WEAK
UPPER LOW OFF THE W CST COULD INDUCE A BIT OF COOLING FRI AND SAT IF
IT ENDS UP CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE CST.

&&

.AVIATION...13/1800Z.

EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH SCT-BKN MIDLEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. CUMULUS STARTING TO BUILD IN THE MTNS OF LA/VTU COUNTY
AND ANTELOPE VALLEY...INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN TSTMS OCCURRING BY
MID-AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO SBA COUNTY. SOME OF THESE
SHOWERS COULD SNEAK WESTWARD INTO THE LA/VTU COUNTY VALLEYS AND
COAST...SO HAVE INCLUDED VCSH IN COASTAL AND VALLEY SITES. IF TSTMS
OCCUR...EXPECT MDT UDDF.

KLAX...HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR VFR UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH AT
LEAST 06Z. A FEW STORMS FROM THE MTNS COULD DRIFT WESTWARD LATE IN
THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WITH VARIABLE GUSTY WINDS TO 25 MPH.
EXPECT UDDF IF STORMS DO OCCUR. LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO.

KBUR...EXPECT VFR CONDS WITH PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MOVING OFF THE
LOCAL MOUNTAINS. IF THUNDERSTORMS DO MOVE NEAR KBUR...SOME MODERATE
UDDF COULD BE POSSIBLE LATE AFTERNOON EARLY EVENING HOURS. LOW
CONFIDENCE WITH THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).

&&

PUBLIC...KITTELL/BRUNO
AVIATION...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-141300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 AM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN
CALIFORNIA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE
MOUNTAINS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES...
EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE...THEN VALLEYS OF LOS ANGELES AND
VENTURA COUNTIES...THE CUYAMA VALLEY AND THE ANTELOPE VALLEY.
MUD AND DEBRIS FLOWS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE RECENT BURN AREAS.

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX
  FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
DESERTS MONDAY THROUGH EARLY MONDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

BRUNO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
240 PM PDT SUN JUL 13 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0238 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LOCKWOOD VALLEY         34.75N 119.08W
07/13/2008                   VENTURA            CA   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            MUD AND DEBRIS REPORTED ACROSS LOCKWOOD VALLEY ROAD AT
            MILE MARKER 13 WITH HEAVY RAINFALL IN VICINITY.

0238 PM     HEAVY RAIN       LOCKWOOD VALLEY         34.75N 119.08W
07/13/2008  M2.21 INCH       VENTURA            CA   MESONET

            2.21 INCHES OF RAIN MEASURED IN ONE HOUR AND 15 MINUTES
            AT LOCKWOOD VALLEY YARD.

&&

MEIER

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