Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 22 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...
MAIN FOCUS IN SHORT TERM HAS NOW TURNED TO THE UPPER LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. SO FAR...THE MOST INTENSE CONVECTION HAS
BEEN OVER ORANGE COUNTY. HOWEVER...THERE HAVE BEEN SOME DECENT
BUILDUPS OVER VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON.
SO CURRENT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
LOOK GOOD. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL. THE SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED
CLOSELY FOR ANY POTENTIAL WARNINGS THAT WOULD NEED TO BE ISSUED
LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...12Z MODELS INDICATED THE UPPER
LOW WILL CONTINUE TO WOBBLE OVER OUR AREA THROUGH SATURDAY...
BRINGING SOME CHANCE OF CONVECTION TO THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...WILL
KEEP INHERITED POP FORECAST...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OVER THE VTU/LAX
MOUNTAINS...ANTELOPE VALLEY...VTU/LAX VALLEYS AND LAX COUNTY COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY... THE LOW PUSHES TO THE
NORTHWEST...PUTTING OUR AREA UNDER A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW.

OTHER CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS THE WINDS. CURRENTLY HAVE WIND
ADVISORIES FOR THE CENTRAL COAST THROUGH THIS EVENING...WHICH GIVEN
CURRENT OBS...APPEARS TO BE WORKING OUT JUST FINE. ALSO...HAVE A
WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF SBA COUNTY (SANTA
YNEZ RANGE) FOR SUNDOWNER WINDS. CURRENT SBA-SMX IS WELL OFFSHORE
WHICH SHOULD PRODUCE SOME ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS LATER THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.

CLOUD COVER WILL BE PROBLEMATIC THROUGH THE PERIOD...AS VARYING
DEGREES OF MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION DRIFT OVER
THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES SOME MARINE
LAYER CLOUDS FOR THE COASTAL/VALLEY AREAS THROUGH SUNDAY. GIVEN
THE COMPLICATED INTERACTION BETWEEN THE MARINE LAYER AND THE
MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS TIME...WILL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE
FORECAST...ALTHOUGH WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE LITTLE IF ANY
STRATUS CLOUDS THROUGH SUNDAY. OVERALL...A GENERAL PARTLY TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY FORECAST WILL BE USED.

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)...
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY
GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A GENERAL TROUGH PATTERN
WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN IS REPLACED
A WEAK RIDGE ON THURSDAY. NEAR THE SURFACE...ONSHORE FLOW IS
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. SO...SHOULD HAVE PRETTY TYPICAL MAY WEATHER
FOR THE AREA...WITH SOME NIGHT/MORNING LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. AS FOR
TEMPS...WILL EXPECT RATHER SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...22/1930Z.

GOOD CONFIDENCE IN CLEAR SKIES AND GOOD VISIBILITIES ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS LA COUNTY AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF VENTURA COUNTY THREATEN TO BRING AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO TAF SITES IN LA COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT...MARINE CLOUDS WILL PUSH INTO MANY COASTAL AND VALLEY
SECTIONS.

KLAX AND KBUR...A SCATTERED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY AFFECT THE
TAF SITES THROUGH EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT...MARINE CLOUDS WILL PUSH
INTO BOTH TAF SITES WITH MVFR TO VFR CONDITIONS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF AROUND 10 KT MAY POSE A PROBLEM FOR KLAX AFTER 15Z FRI.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
HIGH SURF ADVISORY (SEE LAXCFWLOX).
HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK (SEE LAXSRFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...THOMPSON
AVIATION...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
948 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2008

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-231300-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
948 AM PDT THU MAY 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SAN LUIS OBISPO AND
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY THROUGH TODAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS L.A. COUNTY WILL CREATE LIGHTNING HAZARDS. ACROSS THE WINDS
HIGH SEAS AND GALE FORCE WINDS WILL PRODUCE HAZARDS FOR SEAFARERS.
AT THE BEACHES LARGE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL BE HAZARDOUS TO
PEOPLE VENTURING INTO THE WATER.

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH SURF ADVISORY.........SEE WHUS46 KLOX - CFWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK......SEE FZUS56 KLOX - SRFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE LIGHTNING HAZARDS
THROUGH L.A. COUNTY AS WELL AS THE MOUNTAINS OF VENTURA COUNTY
THROUGH SATURDAY. AT THE BEACHES LARGE SURF AND RIP CURRENTS WILL
BE HAZARDOUS TO PEOPLE VENTURING INTO THE WATER.THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED LIGHTNING WILL CREATE HAZARDS FOR L.A. COUNTY ON
SATURDAY.

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

THOMPSON