Flash Flood Warning 13, NWS Los Angeles, CA

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
420 AM PST FRI JAN 25 2008

.SHORT TERM...
THINGS NOT GOING AS PLANNED. A BAND OF RAIN WITH HEAVY SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS SITTING OVER L.A. COUNTY INSTEAD OF MOVING
OUT OF THE AREA AS 18 AND 00Z MDLS SUGGESTED. SATELLITE SHOWS
SHOWERS FORMING IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH A TRAJECTORY FOR VTA AND
SOUTHERN SBA COUNTY. SATELLITE SHOWS A LARGE CLOUD COMMA MOVING INTO
THE CENTRAL COAST. THE MDLS ARE MUCH TOO DRY AND FORECAST IS WETTER.
THE SFO GRAD IS NEAR 10 MB AND 950 MB FLOW PEAKS NEAR 65 KT THE
MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HIGH WIND WARNING WINDS ALTHOUGH WITH SBA VTA AND
LA MTNS THE WINDS WILL BE INCORPORATED INTO THE WINTER STORM
WARNING. SNOW LEVELS STILL LOW AROUND 3000 FEET AND WILL RISE TO
4000 FEET THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER 6 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE BIG QUESTION MARK FOR TODAY IS VENTURA AND THE SANTA BARBARA
SOUTH COAST WHICH...IF THE SHOWERS DO NOT DEVELOP AS EXPECTED...
TODAY COULD BE MUCH DRIER THAT CURRENT FORECAST INDICATES. WILL HAVE
TO WATCH THIS.

THINGS ARE STILL ON TRACK FOR A LULL STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS
THE UPPER LOW PULLS UP TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS WILL PULL THINGS UP
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA AND THERE WILL ONLY BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OR A
CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE AREA AND SOME SUNSHINE COULD PEAK THROUGH AT
TIMES.

BUT THEN THE INTERESTING THING HAPPENS. THE UPPER LOW PLUNGES SOUTH
DOWN THE 130 LONGITUDE LINE THIS ALTERS THE FLOW PATTERN TO A DEEP
SOUTHERLY FLOW WHICH PICKS UP A SUB TROPICAL PLUME AND MOVES IT INTO
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WHICH WILL SET UP A GOOD OROGRAPHIC SITUATION.
THE EXACT AXIS OF THE PLUME WILL DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN FALLS.
CURRENT MDLS CALL FOR 1-3 INCHES COAST VLYS AND 3 TO 5 MTNS WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ON THE SOUTH SLOPES. THE FINAL TALLY COULD BE
HALF OF THAT OR NEAR DOUBLE THAT DEPENDING ON HOW THE PLUME ARRIVES.
REALLY CANNOT COUNT ON THE MDLS AS THEY ARE CONSISTENTLY HORRIBLE AT
THIS KIND OF FORECAST.

DUE TO THE SUB TROPICAL NATURE OF THE SAT AND SUN SYSTEM SNOW LEVELS
WILL RISE TO NEAR 6000 FEET. IT WILL BE BREEZY TOO AS 1002 MB
SURFACE LOW SETS UP WEST OF POINT CONCEPTION.

.LONG TERM...
GFS AND EC HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE MONDAY TO
THURSDAY PERIOD.

THE UPPER LOW SHOULD QUICKLY SWEEP OUT LATER SUNDAY. SHOWERS WILL
STEADILY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IN THE COLD UNSTABLE AIR
IN THE ARRIVING NW FLOW. TUESDAY WILL BE THE FIRST NICE DAY IN
WHILE. A QUICK MOVING SYSTEM WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THEN A QUICK RIDGE BUILDS IN THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...

25/1200Z...

VFR CONDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL COAST WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR IN
SCATTERED SHOWERS. S OF POINT CONCEPTION...MVFR CONDS WILL MAKE WAY
TO MOSTLY VFR BY LATE AFTERNOON AS SHOWER ACTIVITY WANES. SLIGHT
CHANCE OF TSRA THROUGH ABOUT 18Z FROM KOXR SOUTH. GUSTY SE WINDS
WILL AFFECT MOST AIRFIELDS AT TIMES THRU THE DAY...WITH MODERATE
LLWS AND UDDS POSSIBLE...STRONGEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 22Z.

FOR KLAX AND KBUR...SHOWERS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING...AND TAPER OFF QUICKLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MVFR TO VFR
SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...LEANING MORE TOWARDS VFR LATE IN
THE DAY. ISOLATED TSRA STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH 18Z. GUSTY SE WINDS TO
25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE EARLY FRI AFTERNOON.

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
HIGH WIND WARNING (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
FLOOD WATCH (SEE LAXFFALOX).
WIND ADVISORY (SEE LAXNPWLOX).
SNOW ADVISORY (SEE LAXWSWLOX).
STORM WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
GALE WARNING (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXCWFLOX).
MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXMWSLOX).
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT (SEE LAXSPSLOX).

&&

PUBLIC...RORKE
AVIATION...MEIER

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
600 PM PST THU JAN 24 2008

CAZ034>041-044>047-051>054-059-087-088-251400-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY CENTRAL COAST-SANTA YNEZ VALLEY-
SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-CUYAMA VALLEY-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY SOUTH COAST-VENTURA COUNTY COAST-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY COAST INCLUDING DOWNTOWN LOS ANGELES-
VENTURA COUNTY INTERIOR VALLEYS-VENTURA COUNTY COASTAL VALLEYS-
SANTA MONICA MOUNTAINS RECREATIONAL AREA-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY VALLEYS-SAN LUIS OBISPO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA BARBARA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-VENTURA COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS EXCLUDING THE SANTA MONICA RANGE-
ANTELOPE VALLEY-CATALINA ISLAND-SANTA CLARITA VALLEY-
600 PM PST THU JAN 24 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... TODAY
A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE LATEST SYSTEM CURRENTLY MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SNOW IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND A NUMBER OF VALLEYS...AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. FLASH FLOOD WATCHES FOR THE BURN AREAS
WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES
COUNTIES TODAY. TRAVEL MAY BE VERY DANGEROUS WHERE SNOW OR HEAVY
RAIN FALLS THROUGH TONIGHT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO MAKE IT
HAZARDOUS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS WITH LIGHTNING AND WATERSPOUTS.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO THREATEN THE AREA THEREAFTER. IN
ADDITION...GALE FORCE WINDS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SEAS WILL AFFECT THE
OUTER WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN SPREAD INTO THE INNER
WATERS LATE TONIGHT.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* SNOW ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH SUNDAY. THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER SAN LUIS OBISPO AND NORTHERN
SANTA BARBARA COUNTIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE NIGHT...THEN
OVER MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY
SNOW...AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO REMAIN THROUGH
SATURDAY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BURN
AREAS OF SANTA BARBARA...VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTIES THROUGH
FRIDAY. THIS WATCH WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE APPLIED TO SATURDAY NIGHT
AS WELL...AND MAY INCLUDE AREAS OTHER THAN THE BURN
AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN SANTA BARBARA COUNTY. IN ADDITION...STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT AND LASTING
THROUGH SUNDAY. WIND ADVISORIES AND GALE WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE TO
ACCOUNT FOR THE POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS CAUSED BY THESE
WINDS.

* WINTER STORM WARNING.......SEE WWUS46 KLOX - WSWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* GALE WARNING...............SEE FZUS56 KLOX - CWFLOX FOR DETAILS *

* FLOOD WATCH................SEE WGUS66 KLOX - FFALOX FOR DETAILS *

* WIND ADVISORY..............SEE WWUS76 KLOX - NPWLOX FOR DETAILS *

* MARINE WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE FZUS76 KLOX - MWSLOX FOR DETAILS *

* SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT..SEE WWUS86 KLOX - SPSLOX FOR DETAILS *

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

KITTELL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OXNARD CA
154 AM PST FRI JAN 25 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0125 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NNE HOLLYWOOD         34.14N 118.31W
01/25/2008                   LOS ANGELES        CA   PARK/FOREST SRVC

            DEBRIS FLOW OCCURRED ON E. OBSERVATORY RD. IN THE
            GRIFFITH PARK BURN AREA.

&&

KAPLAN