Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
322 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

.DISCUSSION...
320 PM CDT

IN THE NEAR TERM...MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
THROUGH THIS EVENING. TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF CONCERN WILL NEED TO
BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. THE FIRST OF THESE AREAS
IS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA WHERE SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY. PLEASE SEE BELOW
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FOR FURTHER DETAILS REGARDING CONVECTIVE
SCENARIO FOR THIS EVENING. THE FIRST AREA IS ACROSS SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA CURRENTLY UNDER A TORNADO WATCH
WHERE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION IS INCREASING. STILL
CONCERN FOR POTENTIAL REDEVELOPMENT FURTHER BACK TO THE WEST AS
THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS MOVES INTO THE UPPER
MS RIVER VALLEY. FOR FURTHER DETAIL CONCERNING SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL PLEASE SEE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION BELOW.

HAVE NOT MADE SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY...WITH NEW
12Z MODELS IN GENERAL SUPPORT OF GOING FORECAST. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS ON SATURADY STILL APPEAR TO ONLY ADVERTISE VERY MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF FORCING FOR VERTICAL MOTION
AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS MOVES OFF TO THE EAST. LAKE COOLING
TOMORROW IS EXPECTED MAINLY FOR NORTHWEST INDIANA COUNTIES WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND SURFACE TROUGH PASSAGE. OTHERWISE...AWAY
FROM THE LAKE...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM UPPER 70S NORTH TO
LOWER 80S SOUTH. NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP EXPECTED BY LATER MONDAY AS
WEST EAST BOUNDARY DEVELOPS ACROSS THE MID MS RIVER VALLEY. MODELS
DEVIATE QUITE A BIT IN REGARDS TO EVOLUTION OF A PACIFIC UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FOR MID WEEK. GFS TAKES THIS UPPER TROUGH WITH MORE
AMPLITUDE INTO THE PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT WHILE ECMWF TAKES THE
UPPER TROUGH MUCH FURTHER NORTH. WITH WEST EAST BOUNADRY LIKELY IN
THE VICINITY THROUGH MUCH OF THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK...WILL MAINTAIN INHERITED POPS BUT HOLD OFF ON ANY ADDITIONAL
POPS FOR DAY 7 UNTIL MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE ESTABLISHED.

MARSILI

&&

MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE UPDATE...
220 PM CDT

VERY COMPLEX CONVECTIVE SCENARIO UNFOLDING THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST...AMPLE INSOLATION AND DESTABILIZATION HAS TAKEN PLACE
SOUTH OF THE TRACK OF THIS MORNINGS DECAYING MCS. IN THIS
AREA...INCLUDING OUR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...ATMOSPHERE IS NOW PRIMED
FOR SFC BASED CONVECTION AND SURFACED BASED STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP. MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STRONG...THOUGH MOSTLY
UNIDIRECTIONAL...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE MODE SHOULD EVOLVE TO MORE SHORT
LINES/LEWPS WITH TIME...THOUGH SOME SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES ARE
CERTAINLY POSSIBLE FOR A TIME. EVEN IF SUPERCELLS DEVELOP...LCL
HEIGHTS ARE SOMEWHAT HIGH AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR PRETTY WEAK FOR ANY
SUBSTANTIAL TORNADO THREAT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS.

SECOND AREA OF CONCERN IS BAND OF ELEVATED CONVECTION DEVELOPING
FROM WC ILLINOIS ENE INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. NOT TOO SURE WHY THIS
CONVECTION HAS BEEN STEADILY INCREASING...BUT GIVEN STRONG
STABILITY OF SURFACE BASED PARCELS NEAR THIS CONVECTION AND THE
FACT ITS DEVELOPING OVERTOP A STRATUS DECK...IT IS LIKELY
ELEVATED AND THE ONLY POSSIBLE SVR THREAT ITD POSE IS A MARGINAL
HAIL THREAT UNLESS IT MOVES INTO AN AREA MORE PRIMED FOR BOUNDARY
LAYER BASED CONVECTION AND UPDRAFTS BECOME ROOTED IN BOUNDARY LAYER.

THIRD AREA OF CONCERN IS WITH GROWING AREA OF TOWERING CU OVER
NORTHWEST ILLINOIS INTO EASTERN IOWA AHEAD OF WHAT APPEARS TO BE
A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH/CONVERGENCE ZONE. AIRMASS APPEARS TO BE
RECOVERING QUICKLY FROM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION WITH MODIFIED
ACARS SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING UPWARDS OF 1500 J/KG OF SB CAPE WITH
LITTLE INHIBITION. STRONG SHEAR AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WOULD
AGAIN SUPPORT LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT SHOULD CONVECTIVE
INITIATION OCCUR IN THIS AREA OR ALONG THE OTHER AREA OF
DEVELOPING SFC BASED CU OVER NORTHERN IOWA. WHILE INSTABILITY HAS
BEEN SLOWER TO DEVELOP IN THIS AREA...THE ARRIVAL OF ADDED FORCING
FROM SHORTWAVE APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST MAY ENHANCE ASCENT
AND CREATE A MORE CONVECTIVE-FRIENDLY ENVIRONMENT IN THIS REGION
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...

1800 UTC TAFS...
WAKE LOW INDUCED WINDS DIMINISHING PAST 30-60 MINUTES WITH RFD
BELOW 20 KTS FOR SOME TIME AND ORD NOW ONLY G23 KTS. MDW G29 KTS
AND WAUKEGAN HARBOR STATION GUSTING 46 KTS AT 1640Z DOWN TO 12KTS
AT 1740Z. SEVERAL REPORTS OF TREE DAMAGE AND OVERTURNED SEMI ON
I-90/U.S. 20 WITH EARLIER NON CONVECTIVE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
WAKE LOW ENHANCED BY ISALOBARIC COMPONENT WITH STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS ALONG THE IL/WI BORDER NORTHEASTWARD.

ONGOING CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DECAY THIS AFTERNOON EXCEPT
FOR EXPECTED RE-INTENSIFICATION TO THE SOUTHEAST WHERE SURFACE
BASED INSTABILITY HAS BEEN INCREASING AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
POOLING WITH DEW PTS CLIMBING INTO THE MID 60S. FOR NORTHERN IL
AIRPORTS ONGOING PRECIP WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AND SOUTH FOR A
BREAK LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS LOW-MID CLOUDS SCATTER OUT IN
ADVANCE OF COLD FRONT STILL BACK OVER CENTRAL IOWA.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO RE-FIRE LATER IN THE HEAT OF THE AFTERNOON
ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MOVE EAST INTO NORTH CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST ILLINOIS THIS EVENING... GENERALLY BETWEEN 00Z AND
06Z. SEVERE THREAT EXISTS WITH THESE STORMS WITH HAIL UP TO THE
SIZE OF QUARTERS AND WIND GUSTS TO 60KTS.

ED F

&&

.MARINE...
224 AM CDT

MAIN CONCERN OVER THE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BE MAINLY TODAY
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND ON
UP INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OUT TO THE EAST OF THIS SYSTEM...WHICH AT TIMES COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALLY STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE LAKE. RAIN AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY
DEVELOPED FROM WISCONSIN TRACING BACK ALL THE WAY INTO NEBRASKA.
THESE OFF AND ON STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL FRIDAY
EVENING...MORESO ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LAKE. OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL LIKELY BE GUSTING TO AROUND 20-25 KNOTS WITH SOME
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY WITH ANY STORMS THAT RUMBLE
THROUGH. WILL LIKELY BE GOING WITH A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
FOR THESE GUSTY WINDS.

HALBACH

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
IN...NONE.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR LMZ740-
     LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
312100-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008 /450 PM EDT FRI MAY 30 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.
    HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF HALF DOLLARS.
    HEAVY RAINFALL.
    FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE SOUTH OF STREATOR...TO KANKAKEE TO
  DE MOTTE INDIANA LINE THIS EVENING WITH A POTENTIAL OF DAMAGING
  WINDS AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE. ADDITIONAL
  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...AND SPREAD
  EASTWARD ACROSS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA DURING THE MID TO LATE
  EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
  THE MID TO LATE EVENING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 88.

  DISCUSSION:

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF A
  STREATOR TO KANKAKEE TO DE MOTTE INDIANA LINE...WITH A POTENTIAL
  FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO
  POSSIBLE.

  IN ADDITION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
  NORTHERN MISSOURI AND IOWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. IF THESE
  THUNDERSTORMS DO INDEED DEVELOP...THEN THEY WOULD LIKELY MOVE
  INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH
  THESE STORMS WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70
  MPH...THOUGH SOME HAIL TO THE SIZE OF QUARTERS MAY OCCUR WITH
  THE MOST INTENSE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
  FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED THIS EVENING.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-312100-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS WITH WAVES TO 4 FEET WILL LEAD TO
  HAZARDOUS CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
  THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT...SOME OF THESES STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
  GUSTS OVER 35 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
  FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-312100-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
350 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  THERE IS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER SOUTHERN
  PORTIONS OF THE LAKE...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE WIND
  GUSTS OVER 34 KNOTS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  A FEW PERIODS OF THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THE
  MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST
  FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...PARTICULARLY ON TUESDAY.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

MARSILI

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
246 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1130 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LIBERTYVILLE            42.28N 87.97W
05/30/2008                   LAKE               IL   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED WIND GUST 55MPH. 30 FOOT TREE DOWN ACROSS POWER
            LINES NEAR RT. 137 AND DES PLAINES RIVER.

&&

WOJTOWICZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
345 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 6 N MARENGO             42.33N 88.60W
05/30/2008                   MCHENRY            IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE ON HOUSE WITH NUMEROUS TREES DOWN ALONG
            KISHWAUKEE VALLEY ROAD BETWEEN GARDEN PRAIRIE ROAD AND
            ILLINOIS 23.

&&

WOJTOWICZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
404 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0401 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 S GILMAN              40.69N 88.00W
05/30/2008  M60 MPH          IROQUOIS           IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            5 MILES SOUTH OF GILMAN ON INTERSTATE 57.

&&

WOJTOWICZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
426 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0413 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW PAXTON             40.45N 88.11W
05/30/2008                   FORD               IL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            OVER TURNED SEMI IN MEDIAN ON INTERSTATE 57 NEAR MILE
            MARKER 264.

&&

WOJTOWICZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
437 PM CDT FRI MAY 30 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     TSTM WND DMG     CISSNA PARK             40.57N 87.89W
05/30/2008                   IROQUOIS           IL   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE LARGE TREES DOWN.

&&

WOJTOWICZ

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