Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS Chicago, IL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
725 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...

CONCERN FOR THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO CENTER ON
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST MONDAY.

MCS IS CURRENTLY EXITING INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA WITH LOW LEVEL
TEMPORARILY SOMEWHAT STABILIZED IN THE WAKE OF THIS MCS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN ILLINOIS. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO REDEVELOP
BACK TO THE WEST ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL IOWA IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THIS AREA. GIVEN ABUNDANT LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT ON
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EXPECTING THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP/MOVE INTO EASTERN IOWA NORTHWEST/CENTRAL ILLINOIS LATER
THIS EVENING. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS AREAS MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80...PROSPECTS FOR PRECIP THIS EVENING SEEM A BIT MORE
IFFY. AIR MASS IS RELATIVELY UNDISTURBED ACROSS THESE LOCATIONS BUT
WITH OLD OUTFLOW NOT LIKELY MAKING MUCH MORE SOUTHWARD PROGRESS AND
MAIN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TRACK ACROSS NORTHWEST ILLINOIS/EASTERN
IOWA PRECIP COVERAGE SHOULD BE QUITE A BIT LESS ACROSS THESE
LOCATIONS THIS EVENING. AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXPECTING PROSPECTS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO INCREASE ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WARM/MOIST TROPICAL LIKE AIR MASS IN PLACE WOULD CONTINUE TO
SUGGEST SEVERE THREAT MAINLY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. IN
ADDITION TO SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...CONCERN WILL BE SHIFTING
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW ON POTENTIAL OF HEAVY RAIN. PWATS OF BETWEEN
1.75 AND 2.00 INCHES FOR TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW AND WITH SLOW
EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY...IT APPEARS AS THOUGH AT
LEAST A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS LOWEST ACROSS FAR NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA AND ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH. HOWEVER...AREAS WHICH
DID HAVE RELATIVELY HIGHER FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE THIS MORNING HAVE
RECEIVED SOME OF THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL TOTALS TODAY. WILL BE ISSUING
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO
TOMORROW EVENING.

WITH SLOW MOVING SURFACE FRONT TRACKING THROUGH THE AREA
TOMORROW...BEST SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE THE
STEEPEST WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY SUGGEST BY NAM/GFS FORECAST
SOUNDINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO TOMORROW EVENING
ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHEAST AS LOW LEVEL FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG
EASTWARD...BUT EXPECTING THINGS TO DRY OUT ACROSS REMAINDER OF THE
CWA BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

HAVE MADE VERY FEW CHANGES TO THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS. MAIN CONCERN FOR
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST WILL BE ON EVOLUTION OF FAIRLY VIGOROUS
UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. ANOTHER GOOD
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER.

MARSILI

&&

.AVIATION...

0000 UTC TAFS...CONCERNS STILL REVOLVE AROUND START...END...AND
INTENSITY OF CONVECTION MOVING EAST FROM IOWA OVERNIGHT. ALREADY
HAVE SHOWERS DEVELOPING NEAR AND WEST OF RFD THAT MAY CLIP THE
TERMINAL THERE. FURTHER EAST TO ORD...WILL HAVE A LATER ARRIVAL
TIME OF PCPN. INTENSITY BECOMES EVEN MORE QUESTIONABLE WITH
FURTHER EAST PROGRESS OF LINE OF ONGOING STORMS WEST OF MS RVR.
THIS LINE APPEARS TO BE SFC BASED...GROWING WITH DAYTIME HEAT
INFLUENCE WHICH WUD MEAN THAT SUNSET WOULD TAKE MUCH OF THE PUNCH
FROM THIS LINE OF STORMS. SO BY THE TIME REACHING ORD OR
ESPECIALLY GYY...LIGHTNING ACTIVITY MAY BE WINDING DOWN. OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM EARLY AFTN STORMS MOVED SOUTH OF TERMINALS TODAY BUT
NOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING BACK NORTH INTO WI. THIS IS TURNING WINDS
FROM SE TO SW WITH STIFFER SPEEDS TO NR 20 KTS EARLY THEN 10-20KTS
OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT ASSOC WITH LINE OF STORMS NOT MOVING THRU
TERMINALS UNTIL LT AFTN OR EVENING MONDAY...SO STIFF SW FLOW TO
CONTINUE THRU 00Z AT ORD. STORMS PROBLY PEEKING 05Z-08Z AT
ORD...THEN CARRYING SHOWERS VICINITY THRU MID TO LT MRNG BEFORE
HEATING BEGINS TO FIRE STORMS AROUND TERMINALS IN THE AFTN UNTIL
COLD FRONT MOVES THRU.

RLB

&&

.MARINE...
330 PM CDT

A FEW LINGERING STRONG WIND GUSTS/HIGHER WAVES WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY THIS EVENING IN ASSOCIATION
WITH DEPARTING THUNDERSTORMS. OTHERWISE...ANY CONVECTIVELY DISTURBED
WINDS ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN WILL BECOME SOUTH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT IN
ADVANCE OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS WILL
SHIFT TO THE WEST SOUTHWEST AS THIS TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEST EAST STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS THEN EXPECTED TO FORM
ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL PORTIONS OF LAKE MICHIGAN ON TUESDAY WITH EAST
WINDS DEVELOPING NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY AND SOUTH WINDS TO THE SOUTH
OF THE BOUNDARY. MORE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ACROSS LAKE MICHIGAN ON
FRIDAY IN ADVANCE OF A STRONGER SYSTEM APPROACHING...WITH SOUTH
WINDS STRENGTHENING IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY.

MARSILI

&&

.LOT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR BOONE-COOK-DE
     KALB-DUPAGE-GRUNDY-KANE-KENDALL-LA SALLE-LAKE IL-LEE-
     MCHENRY-OGLE-WILL-WINNEBAGO COUNTIES.
     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR FORD-IROQUOIS-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON COUNTIES.
IN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CDT /1 AM EDT/ TONIGHT THROUGH
     LATE MONDAY NIGHT FOR BENTON-JASPER-LAKE IN-NEWTON-PORTER
     COUNTIES.
LM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR LMZ740-
     LMZ741-LMZ742-LMZ743-LMZ744-LMZ745.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
417 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

ILZ003>006-008-010>014-019>023-032-033-039-INZ001-002-010-011-019-
092130-
WINNEBAGO-BOONE-MCHENRY-LAKE ILLINOIS-OGLE-LEE-DE KALB-KANE-
DUPAGE-COOK-LA SALLE-KENDALL-GRUNDY-WILL-KANKAKEE-LIVINGSTON-
IROQUOIS-FORD-LAKE INDIANA-PORTER-NEWTON-JASPER-BENTON-
417 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008 /517 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
ILLINOIS...NORTHEAST ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  THUNDERSTORMS...SOME MAY PRODUCE:
    VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING.
    DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
  NORTHWEST INDIANA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS
  CENTRAL IOWA WILL MOVE BACK INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS LATER THIS
  EVENING...AND INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY
  MORNING. HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
  THESE THUNDERSTORMS.

  DISCUSSION:

  A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS
  FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS IOWA THIS EVENING...AND
  THESE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND NORTHWEST
  INDIANA TONIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL SLOWLY APPROACH NORTHERN
  ILLINOIS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...WITH A THREAT OF HEAVY
  RAINFALL AND FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY...WITH A CONTINUED THREAT
  FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING. IN ADDITION...THERE DOES
  APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY
  ACROSS NORTHWEST INDIANA AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 55 IN ILLINOIS.
  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.

  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

  ALSO...PORTIONS OF THE KANKAKEE RIVER WILL REMAIN IN FLOOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TONIGHT.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ740>745-092130-
WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR-
WILMETTE HARBOR TO NORTHERLY ISLAND-
NORTHERLY ISLAND TO CALUMET HARBOR-CALUMET HARBOR TO GARY-
GARY TO BURNS HARBOR-BURNS HARBOR TO MICHIGAN CITY-
417 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE ILLINOIS
NEARSHORE WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN AND THE INDIANA NEARSHORE
WATERS OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA NEARSHORE WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING.L

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

LMZ080-261-362-364-366-563-565-567-669-671-673-675-777-779-868-
870-872-874-876-878-092130-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM MICHIGAN CITY IN TO ST. JOSEPH MI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN SOUTH OF A LINE FROM SEUL CHOIX POINT TO THE
MACKINAC BRIDGE AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM CHARLEVOIX MI TO SOUTH
FOX ISLAND 5 NM OFFSHORE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM CHARLEVOIX TO POINT BETSIE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM POINT BETSIE TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ROCK ISLAND PASSAGE TO STURGEON BAY WI-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM STURGEON BAY TO TWO RIVERS WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM TOW RIVERS TO SHEBOYGAN WI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SHEBOYGAN TO PORT WASHINGTON WI 5 NM OFFSHORE
TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PORT WASHINGTON TO NORTH POINT LIGHT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM NORTH POINT LIGHT TO WIND POINT WI 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WIND POINT WI TO WINTHROP HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WINTHROP HARBOR TO WILMETTE HARBOR IL 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WILMETTE HARBOR IL TO MICHIGAN CITY IN 5 NM
OFFSHORE TO MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM PENTWATER TO MANISTEE MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM WHITEHALL TO PENTWATER MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM GRAND HAVEN TO WHITEHALL MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM HOLLAND TO GRAND HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM SOUTH HAVEN TO HOLLAND MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO MID
LAKE-
LAKE MICHIGAN FROM ST. JOSEPH TO SOUTH HAVEN MI 5 NM OFFSHORE TO
MID LAKE-
417 PM CDT SUN JUN 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF LAKE MICHIGAN.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AGAIN MONDAY...WITH A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS WELL.

&&

COMPLETE FORECAST INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE ON THE NWS CHICAGO
WEBPAGE: WEATHER.GOV/CHICAGO

MARSILI

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