Wind Advisory 16, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Dubois County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Perry County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Breckinridge County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Clark County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Hancock County, KY, Hardin County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Larue County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Meade County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

000 
WWUS73 KLMK 311154
NPWLMK

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
654 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-
311300-
/O.CAN.KLMK.WI.Y.0016.000000T0000Z-081231T1200Z/
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND
654 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008 /554 AM CST WED DEC 31 2008/

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE HAS EXPIRED THE WIND
ADVISORY. 

ALTHOUGH WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS...STRONGER WIND GUSTS HAVE CEASED AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW 40 MPH. THEREFORE THE WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE.

$$

AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1140 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

.UPDATE FOR 06Z TAFS...

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WED)...

 20 DEGS COLDER WED THAN TDA WITH LOTS OF WIND TGNT/EARLY WED...

SHRTWV TROF APPARENT IN SRN MINNESOTA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. TROF
WILL DROP SEWD TO NRN INDIANA BY 06Z AND WEST VA BY 12Z.

ASSOCIATED DEEPENING SFC LO...ANALYZED OVER SERN IOWA/NERN MISSOURI/
WRN ILLINOIS NEAR QUINCY...WILL MOVE EWD TO NERN OH/WRN PA BY 06Z
AND TO SERN PA BY 12Z. CDFNT EXTENDING SWWD FROM LO...WILL SWEEP
ACRS OUR FA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z TNGT...FOLLOWED BY A STRATOCU DECK
IN THE 020 TO 040 CIG RANGE. LO CLDS SHUD COVER MUCH OF OUR FA...
ESPECIALLY NERN SECTIONS...FROM LATE TNGT INTO WED MORNING...CLEARING
OUT LAST ACRS THE BLUEGRASS REGION AROUND MIDDAY. POST FRONTAL W/NW
WIND GUSTS UP TO 35-40 MPH EXPECTED ACRS OUR NRN FA AS GRADIENT
STEEPENS AFTER FROPA DUE TO DEEPENING LOW. WILL INSERT IN THE HWO
PRODUCT. WINDS SHUD BE DIMINISHING BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WED AS
HIGH PRES TRACKS TOWARD OUR REGION FROM THE MID/UPR MS VLY.

MAX TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY WED...WITH NO RISES/MAYBE EVEN FALLS DURING
THE EARLY MORNING AFTER SUNRISE FOR THOSE AREAS WITH CLOUD COVER.
SOME MINOR REBOUND IN TEMPS EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
AS SKIES CLEAR. OVERALL...WILL LOWER WED MAXS A COUPLE DEGS FROM
ONGOING FCST. ALSO...WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE A FEW MORNING
FLURRIES ACRS OUR NERN QUADRANT...BUT WILL NOT INSERT AT THIS
TIME.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

FAIRLY ACTIVE LONG TERM PERIOD IN STORE FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AS UPPER
LEVEL PATTERN BEGINS TO CHANGE AND TELECONNECTIONS SET UP FOR AN
INVASION OF ARCTIC AIR TOWARD THE END OF THE FCST PD.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE FCST PD AS
FAIRLY ZONAL FLOW ENCOMPASSES THE OHIO VALLEY. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL DRIFT ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND SHOULD BE CENTERED
EAST OF KY BY THURSDAY MORNING.  MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED WED
NIGHT AND WITH LIGHT WINDS...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL RAPIDLY AS WE
USHER IN 2009.  LOWS THU MORNING WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER TEENS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SLIGHTLY WARMER READINGS ACROSS OUR SW
SECTIONS NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER...WITH UPPER TEENS TO AROUND 20 FOR
LOWS.  WITH SFC HIGH TO OUR EAST ON THURSDAY AND APPROACHING STORM
SYSTEM TO OUR NW...SFC WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY
AND HELP WARM THINGS BACK UP.  SINCE THE MODELS TEND TO OVER DO THE
WARMING THE BACK SIDE OF DEPARTING HIGHS...HAVE GONE A BIT COOLER
THAN THE AGGRESSIVE MOS TEMPS.  GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z
EURO AND GFS HERE WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH AND LOWER 40S ACROSS THE SOUTH.

BY THU NIGHT WILL BE WATCHING THE APPROACH OF A FAST MOVING FRONTAL
SYSTEM COMING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.  WHAT ONCE LOOKED LIKE A DECENT
SNOWFALL PRODUCER OVER THE WEEKEND CONTINUES TO LOOK RATHER MEAGER
WITH EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN.  THE 12Z EURO AND GFS KEEP MUCH OF
THE ACTION WELL TO OUR NORTH. HOWEVER...FORCING ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT TO GENERATE SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS
ACROSS THE REGION LATE THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MODEL TRENDS
HAVE INDICATED SOME WARMING DURING THE DAY FRIDAY WHICH MAY YIELD A
RAIN/SNOW MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BEFORE ENDING.  PRECIP WILL
EXIT OUR AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES FOR FRI EVENING.
AGAIN...WE HAVE USED A BLEND OF THE 12Z EURO AND GFS RAW NUMBERS FOR
TEMPS AND DISCOUNTED THE MOS/MEX GUIDANCE.

SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

MAIN WEATHER ACTION LOOKS TO OCCUR DURING THIS FORECAST PERIOD WHERE
WE WILL BE WATCHING TWO STORM SYSTEMS...ONE FOR SUNDAY AND A MORE
WINTRY TYPE STORM FOR LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

SATURDAY WILL BE A DAY WHERE WE WILL BE IN BETWEEN WEATHER SYSTEMS
AS WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE LOOKS TO KEEP MUCH OF THE REGION DRY
DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE
EXPECTED WITH SOMEWHAT SEASONAL TEMPS.  GENERALLY HAVE TRENDED TEMPS
SLIGHTLY COOLER ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE LATEST TRENDS HAVE
SUGGESTED.  HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S TO AROUND 40 ARE LIKELY ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF KY AND SOUTHERN INDIANA WHILE MID TO UPPER 40S
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR SOUTH NEAR THE KY/TN BORDER.

NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE INVADING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
LATE SATURDAY AND DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.  THE 12Z GFS AND EURO
HAVE SOMEWHAT DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS WITH THEIR SYNOPTIC SCALE
STRUCTURES. THE GFS KEEPS TWO LOW CENTERS GOING WHILE THE EURO HAS
ONE LARGER LOW PRESSURE TRACKING WEST OF THE REGION.  HAVE TRENDED
THE FCST SHARPLY TOWARD THE 12Z EURO HERE.  WITH THAT...COMBINATION
OF STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD RESULT IN A LARGE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD DEVELOPING TO OUR SW AND LIFTING NE VERY LATE
SAT NIGHT AND ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY.  THERMAL PROFILES ARE VERY
MUCH WARM FOR ALL RAIN...BUT A BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN TIER OF SOUTHERN INDIANA COUNTIES AT
PRECIPITATION ONSET.  STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL LIKELY QUICKLY
SHIFT THIS ALL TO RAIN BY MID MORNING SUNDAY.  PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE QUITE TIGHT AGAIN...SO ANOTHER WINDY DAY IS ON TAP AS WELL
AND WILL BE BOOSTING UP WINDS IN THE FCST.  SFC COLD FRONT WILL PLOW
THROUGH THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY WITH ANOTHER 20-30
DEGREE TEMP DROP AS WE GO FROM SUN NIGHT TO MONDAY MORNING.  AS IN
THE CASE WITH PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...ANOTHER RAIN TO SNOW SITUATION
BEFORE ENDING IS POSSIBLE...BUT MUCH OF THE DATA SUGGESTS THAT
MOISTURE WILL HAVE DEPARTED BEFORE SUFFICIENT COLD AIR WORKS IN FOR
A CHANGE OVER.  SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FOR MONDAY...WELL SEE A QUICK REPRIEVE IN CONDITIONS AS WELL BE IN
BETWEEN SYSTEMS ONCE AGAIN.  TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 30S IN THE NORTH AND MID 30S IN THE SOUTH.
HAVE UNDERCUT THE MEX GUIDANCE AGAIN AND GONE CLOSER TO THE 12Z
GFS/EURO RAW TEMP FIELDS HERE.

FOR MON NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALL EYES WILL BE ON A STRONG MID LEVEL
WAVE COMING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PART OF THE COUNTRY.  BOTH THE 12Z
GFS AND EURO SOLUTIONS SHOW A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
NORTHWEST GULF STATES AND THEN MOVING NORTHEAST.  THE GFS AND EURO
HAVE DIFFERENT SFC LOW TRACKS WHICH RESULT IN VERY DIFFERENT
FORECASTS.  THE 12Z EURO HAS TRENDED MORE PROGRESSIVE WHICH RESULTS
IN A TRACK FURTHER EAST AND IS COLDER.  THE GFS IS FURTHER WEST WITH
THE LOW BRINGING THE CENTER RIGHT THROUGH KY...AND IS MUCH WARMER.
THE BOTTOM LINE IS THAT THE CURRENT 12Z EURO WOULD BRING A DECENT
SNOWSTORM TO MUCH OF KY WHILE THE CURRENT 12Z GFS WOULD BE MORE OF A
RAIN TO SNOW PRODUCER.  FOR NOW HAVE TRENDED THE FCST TOWARD THE
COLDER EURO SOLUTION...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS THE 12Z SOLN.  WOULD
LIKE TO SEE A COUPLE OF MORE RUNS BEFORE MAKING THE JUMP.

LOOKING BEYOND THE FCST PD...A RETURN TO A VERY COLD PATTERN ACROSS
THE EAST LOOKS INCREASINGLY LIKELY.  STRONG RIDGING/BLOCKING IS FCST
TO CONTINUE ACROSS GREENLAND WHICH WILL HELP AMPLIFY THE PATTERN
QUITE A BIT.  LARGE POLAR VORTEX THAT HAS BEEN OVER ALASKA LOOKS TO
MOVE EAST THEN SOUTHEAST INTO THE UPPER PLAINS AND GREAT LAKES BY
THE END OF THE NEXT WEEK.  THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE GREENLAND
BLOCK WILL LEAD TO A LARGE DEEP TROUGH ACROSS THE EAST WITH MUCH
BELOW TEMPERATURES FOR THE OHIO VALLEY LASTING QUITE POSSIBLY TOWARD
MID-MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAFS)...

A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSING SDF AT 05Z WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
RAPIDLY THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS AT
BWG AND LEX WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. A STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WITH WIND GUST TO 35 MPH WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH 18Z. A POST
FRONTAL STRATUS DECK SHOULD REMAIN IN THE UPPER LIMITS OF MVFR OR
LOWER VFR CATEGORY. THE CLOUDS WILL EXIT THE REGION SHORTLY AFTER
12Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE

SHORT TERM...KIRKPATRICK
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....JA

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EST TUE DEC 30 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-310930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM EST (230 PM CST) TUE DEC 30 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATE TONIGHT AFTER A
COLD FRONT PASSES. WIND GUSTS FROM 35 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED FROM
MIDNIGHT TO SUNRISE WEDNESDAY...PRIMARILY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA
AND THE NORTHERN BLUEGRASS REGION OF KENTUCKY. THESE WIND GUSTS ARE
HIGH ENOUGH TO AFFECT HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES...ESPECIALLY THOSE ON
NORTH-SOUTH ORIENTED HIGHWAYS OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FAST MOVING STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW TO THE
REGION VERY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY.  THE COMBINATION OF
TEMPERATURES NEAR THE FREEZING MARK AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION MAY
RESULT IN SLICK ROADWAYS FRIDAY MORNING.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO IMPACT THE REGION LATE MONDAY
AND INTO TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
WITH REGARDS TO THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SHOULD THE STORM TRACK
RIGHT THROUGH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...A MOSTLY RAIN EVENT IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER A TRACK FURTHER TO THE EAST COULD RESULT IN MORE OF A SNOW
EVENT FOR THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

DK/MJ

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1222 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>025-028>043-045>049-053>057-
065>067-310800-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-SCOTT KY-
HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-FAYETTE KY-
BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-MERCER KY-
JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-GARRARD KY-
MADISON KY-TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
FRANKFORT...GEORGETOWN...CYNTHIANA...TAYLORSVILLE...
LAWRENCEBURG...VERSAILLES...LEXINGTON...PARIS...CARLISLE...
BARDSTOWN...SPRINGFIELD...HARRODSBURG...NICHOLASVILLE...
WINCHESTER...HODGENVILLE...LEBANON...DANVILLE...LANCASTER...
RICHMOND...CAMPBELLSVILLE...LIBERTY...STANFORD
1222 AM EST WED DEC 31 2008 /1122 PM CST TUE DEC 30 2008/

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE...

A COLD FRONT IS PASSING THROUGH THE REGION CURRENTLY. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT WHICH
HAS ALREADY PASSED THROUGH LOUISVILLE AND FORT KNOX. WITH THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE...EXPECT SUSTAINED NORTHWEST WINDS OF 25 MPH...AND
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT SHOULD PASS
THROUGH BOWLING GREEN BY 1AM EST AND THROUGH FRANKFORT AND
LEXINGTON BY 2AM EST. IF DRIVING DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...PLEASE USE EXTRA CAUTION AS STRONG WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE
FRONT WILL MAKE FOR DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS.

AL