Severe Thunderstorm Warning 93, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
312 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND SATURDAY)...

VERY MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AND NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE CWA. PWATS
ARE NEARING TWO INCHES...SO VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCING STORMS
ARE THE MAIN THREAT. A SECONDARY THREAT WITH THE STORMS WOULD BE
ISOLATED WET MICROBURSTS BUT ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE WANING AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH IT WILL CONTINUE. CONVECTION IS ALIGNED ROUGHLY ALONG
1-65 AND WILL AFFECT POINTS THERE AND EASTWARD. MAIN FOCUS WILL
SWITCH TO FRONTAL CONVECTION.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED ALONG THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO THE WEST. EVEN THOUGH OUR ATMOSPHERE IS WORKED OVER FROM
CURRENT CONVECTION...BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SEEN AHEAD OF THIS SO
SOME RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE. THUS THINK THE LINE WILL HOLD
TOGETHER TONIGHT WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND TORRENTIAL RAINS
AGAIN BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE ACROSS
NORTHERN KY AND SOUTHERN IN...ESPECIALLY WEST OF 65 WHERE THE MOST
RECOVERY WILL TAKE PLACE. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL MAY BE
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY FOR OUR INDIANA COUNTIES OVERNIGHT. LOWS
OVERNIGHT WILL BE IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70.

DID NOT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES TO THE SATURDAY FORECAST. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ALIGNED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE CWA BY 12Z
SATURDAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THE FRONT. CLEARING WILL TAKE PLACE AND DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH PLEASANT CONDITIONS SETTLING IN FOR THE SECOND
HALF OF SATURDAY. HOWEVER THE BLUEGRASS REGION MAY BE SLOWER TO
CLEAR. HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE LOW 80S.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...

RELATIVELY QUIET EXTENDED PERIOD EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL AND ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA (COUNTY WARNING AREA) ON
SATURDAY RETURNING TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONAL VALUES WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD COME TO AN END BEFORE
SATURDAY NIGHT SO KEPT SAT NIGHT DRY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCE
WILL TRACK ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF A COOLER AND
DRIER AIRMASS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER THE CWA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE PERIOD KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
WITH HIGHS IN THE 80S AND LOWS FROM THE MID 60S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING ALONG A RESIDUAL
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WEST OF A LINE FROM IND TO BWG. AMPLE GULF MOISTURE
WILL HELP INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THESE STORMS SO WILL BE INSERTING
TSRA INTO BWG AND SDF TAFS NOW. STILL THINK IT WILL BE A FEW HOURS
BEFORE ANYTHING OCCURS AT THE LEX TERMINAL BUT WILL AT LEAST HAVE
VCSH OR VCTS THERE AS WELL. ANY STORM WOULD PRODUCE 1-2SM VSBYS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 30 KTS OR MORE BUT WILL NOT INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS/TEMPOS.

OFF AND ON SHOWERS/STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIP MAY
END AS EARLY AS 12Z SATURDAY AT BWG AND SDF...BUT WILL CONTINUE AT
LEX THEREAFTER.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM....AL
LONG TERM.....LS
AVIATION......AL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-142000-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
347 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008 /247 PM CDT FRI JUN 13 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. HOWEVER ALONG THE COLD
FRONT...MORE NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE
REGION THIS EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. A FEW OF THESE
STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE MAIN
THREAT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY WHERE A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9PM EDT. OTHERWISE...ALL
STORMS WILL PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
THUNDERSTORMS ENDING FROM THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
AREA. GUSTY WINDS AND CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS A SECOND COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HIGH WINDS OR HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY.

AL/LS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

INZ076-083-084-089-KYZ023-132200-
CRAWFORD-DUBOIS-HANCOCK-ORANGE-PERRY-
521 PM EDT FRI JUN 13 2008

...LINE OF STRONG STORMS AFFECTING
CRAWFORD...DUBOIS...HANCOCK...ORANGE AND PERRY COUNTIES...

AT 518 PM EDT /418 PM CDT/...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM 9 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF PAOLI TO 7 MILES WEST OF CALHOUN...MOVING EAST AT 43
MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR PAOLI BY 530 PM EDT.
  NEAR ENGLISH BY 545 PM EDT.
  NEAR CANNELTON BY 455 PM CDT.

THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE...
  NEAR SYRIA BY 535 PM EDT.
  NEAR BROMER BY 540 PM EDT.
  NEAR VALEENE BY 545 PM EDT.
  NEAR WEST FORK BY 550 PM EDT.
  NEAR SULPHUR SPRINGS BY 555 PM EDT.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

13

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