Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1030 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

.EVENING UPDATE...

HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA AND MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO
TEMPERATURES.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW)...

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE AND MODELS CONFIRM A PROGRESSIVE TROUGH NOW
CENTERED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE REMNANTS OF LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN OKLAHOMA HAS MOVED SOUTH TOWARDS THE RED
RIVER. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN
MISSOURI UNDER AN AREA OF LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF THE JET STREAM.

MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE SHORT TERM ARE CONVECTION CHANCES THIS EVENING
THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH WILL
DE-AMPLIFY AND QUICKLY MOVE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...TRAILING A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST OF THE OHIO RIVER BY
AROUND DAWN. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA BY EARLY
TOMORROW. THIS WILL INITIALLY DELAY THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT AND
KEEP IT WEST OF OUR FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

STRONG STORMS NOW EXTEND ALONG A PREVIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM JUST
NORTHWEST OF PADUCAH...TO JUST WEST OF INDIANAPOLIS. HOWEVER...WITH
MID LEVEL FLOW GENERALLY PARALLEL TO THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...THESE
STORMS WILL ONLY SLOWLY MOVE EAST. FEEL THAT THEY MAY ONLY AFFECT
OUR EXTREME NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN SOUTHWEST INDIANA DURING THE
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FOR EARLY TOMORROW MORNING...SCATTERED STORMS WILL FINALLY MOVE EAST
TOWARD CENTRAL KENTUCKY. EXPECT A WEAKENING TREND DUE TO A LOSS OF
SURFACE STABILITY AND A LACK OF UPPER AIR DYNAMICS...WHICH WILL MOVE
NORTH TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL CONTINUE WITH 40 TO 50% POPS
THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BY MID AFTERNOON.

BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON...SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND
THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST.

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

TUESDAY NIGHT-THURSDAY NIGHT...

UPPER-LEVEL ZONAL FLOW SWITCHES QUICKLY TO AN AMPLIFIED TROUGHING
OVER THE WEST AND RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS. THIS RIDGE
SHOULD HOLD DURING THIS TIME FRAME...KEEPING CONDITIONS MOSTLY DRY
AND WARMING UP. HOWEVER...SWRLY FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SERN
CONUS HIGH COULD ADVECT ENOUGH MOISTURE IN TO GENERATE ISOLATED
AFTERNOON/EVENING PULSE STORMS. THINK THE BEST CHANCE OF THIS WOULD
BE ON THURSDAY AND MAY INSERT A 20 POP IN THE GRIDS...BUT AM LEANING
TOWARD KEEPING THE CWA DRY FOR NOW. HIGHS BACK UP TO THE LOW 90S BY
THURSDAY WILL BE LIKELY.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

TROUGHING OVER THE WRN CONUS WILL PUSH A COOL FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. DYNAMICS LOOK RELATIVELY
MEAGER WITH THIS FRONT...BUT PWATS AND INSTABILITY ARE HIGH SO THINK
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL FOR THE MOST PART.
FRONT LOOKS TO BE EAST OF THE AREA BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS...SO END
POPS BEFORE 00Z SUNDAY. WILL GO A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE ON SATURDAY
FOR HIGHS WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP EXPECTED.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH A
SLOW WARM UP. FOLLOWED THE ECMWF MORE FOR HIGHS THINKING THAT GFS IS
A LITTLE TOO AMPLIFIED WITH ITS NW FLOW AND COOLISH TEMPS DURING
THIS PERIOD. WENT AT OR ABOVE HPC VALUES FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAFS)...

LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS NOW BEGUN TO POP ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY EARLY THIS EVENING.  STORMS ARE GENERALLY OF THE PULSE TYPE
VARIETY WHERE THEY DEVELOP AND FALL APART RATHER QUICKLY.
CONVECTION ACROSS KENTUCKY SHOULD START TO WANE WITH THE LOSS OF
HEATING.  HOWEVER...BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION TO OUR WEST MAY MOVE
TOWARDS KSDF AND KBWG AROUND 06Z OR LATER.  THERE IS STILL QUITE A
BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ABOUT AREAL COVERAGE AT THIS TIME...SO WILL
CONTINUE VCTS IN THE TAFS FOR NOW.

SOUTHWEST WINDS LOOK TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH 25 TO 35 KTS AROUND
2KFT DUE TO NOCTURNAL LOW-LEVEL JET MOVING EAST INTO THE REGION.
THIS WILL PRODUCE SOME WIND SHEAR WHICH IS CLOSE TO INSERTION INTO
THE TAFS...ESPECIALLY AT KSDF/KBWG.

A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA AROUND 12Z...WINDS WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST...BUT BECOME LIGHT DURING THE DAY TOMORROW.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JA
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....MJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
330 PM EDT MON JUN 9 2008

INZ078-079-090>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-
082-101930-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
330 PM EDT (230 PM CDT) MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED...MOSTLY TOWARDS THE MORNING
HOURS. THESE STORMS ARE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

INZ076-077-083-084-089-101930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-DUBOIS IN-CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-
330 PM EDT (230 PM CDT) MON JUN 9 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA WEST OF INTERSTATE 65. STORMS
THIS EVENING MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS...LIGHTNING...AND BRIEF HEAVY
RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS A
COOL FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE REGION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

JSD/AL

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