Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
254 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...

A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO DIP SOUTHWARD ACROSS IL/IN TONIGHT. AHEAD
OF THIS COLD FRONT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AND
IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA BEGINNING THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOWERS...SOME
HEAVY AT TIMES...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS THE FRONT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. PW
VALUES BASED ON MODEL SOUNDS ARE NEARLY TWO INCHES ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT ALONG
WITH LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERNS AS ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE TRAINING
OVER THE SAME AREAS BEGINNING TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING.
MAIN JET ENERGY STAYS TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA SO EXPECT THAT THE
BEST CHANCE FOR SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...HOWEVER THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD
SEE SOME RAINFALL AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTHWARD.

ONE CONCERN FOR THIS EVENT IS THE APPARENT DRY PERIOD IN THE NAM
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WEDNESDAY. LINE OF PRECIPITATION FROM
MO/IL TO OH/PA IS BROKEN ACROSS IN/KY. SEE NO REASON THERE SHOULD BE
A BREAK IN THIS LINE WITH SUCH HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND THE FRONT
ACTING AS A FORCING MECHANISM SO WILL LEAVE THE ENTIRE PERIOD WET.
EVEN IF THERE IS A BREAK IN PRECIPITATION WOULD EXPECT IT TO BE
BRIEF.

BESIDES WIDESPREAD RAINFALL...THE FRONT WILL BRING COOLER
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. EXPECT
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 80S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE IN EXTREME SOUTH
CENTRAL KENTUCKY THROUGH MID THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE MOVING OFF TO
THE SOUTH FOR A DRY AND WARM THURSDAY AFTERNOON. A BREAK IN
PRECIPITATION SHOULD CARRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WORKS INTO THE CWA DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS
BOUNDARY WILL LINGER ACROSS KENTUCKY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE ENTIRE
SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THIS BOUNDARY DOES STILL LOOK TO BE LIMITED ACCORDING TO THE MODELS
SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE ISOLATED CATEGORY FOR NOW...BUT IF
MOISTURE ADVECTION IS STRONGER THAN THE MODELS INDICATE THESE POPS
WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED IN FUTURE FORECASTS. BOUNDARY MOVES OFF
MONDAY WITH MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOKING DRY AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE DEVELOPING EAST OF LEX BUT COULD
BACKBUILD AND AFFECT THE AREA THROUGHOUT THE EVENING. BWG AND SDF
ARE CURRENTLY VFR...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE HIT AND
MISS SO AMENDMENTS MAY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN THREAT WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING WILL BE REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY
RAIN AND OCCASIONAL GUSTY WINDS.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION.....LS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-091930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
317 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2008 /217 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND AFFECT
MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE
COUPLED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL ALLOW THESE STORMS TO
PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES AS WELL AS DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT SLOWLY
SLIPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME AREAS MAY SEE MORE
THAN AN INCH OF RAINFALL BY TOMORROW NIGHT. LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY
BECOME A PROBLEM IN LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. ALONG
WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INTENSE
RAINFALL...FLOODING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

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