Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
300 PM EDT SUN JUN 22 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND MONDAY)...

AS EXPECTED...CU FIELD HAS BEEN SUPPRESSED OVER CENTRAL KY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AS HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER
LAPSE RATES HAS CAUSED DRY LOW LEVEL AIR TO MIX DOWN TO SFC. AS A
RESULT...SFC DEWPOINTS WHICH WERE IN LOWER 60S THIS MORNING HAVE
DROPPED TO THE LOWER 50S AT THIS TIME...WITH SFC BASED LI VALUES
ONLY ABOUT -1 HERE. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS INCREASE AGAIN JUST TO
THE NORRTH ASSOCIATED WITH BAND OF CLOUDS AND FORCING OVER SRN IN
AND SRN IL AHEAD OF SHORTWAVE TROF ALOFT. TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP ON LEADING EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS WITHIN LI GRADIENT ZONE OVER
SRN IN. ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE AND MOVE SEWD INTO
PARTS OF CNTRL KY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. GIVEN MORNING
SOUNDINGS AND A LOOK AT A COUPLE OF ACARS SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT
SEVERE MICROBURST POTENTIAL REMAINS POSSIBLE FROM THE STRONGEST
CELLS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS.

MOST CELLS SHOULD DISSIPATE LATER THIS EVENING AS INSTABILITY WANES.
HOWEVER...BOTH 12Z NAM-WRF (AND NAM-NMM CORE) AND GFS SUGGEST
ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN OVER S-CNTRL KY LATE TONIGHT
AND MONDAY MORNING WITH ISOLATED OR SCT ELEVATED TSTMS POSSIBLE.

ON MONDAY...STRONG TROFING ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER FORECAST AREA
WITH H5 TEMPS PREDICTED TO BE AROUND -16C. COLD MID LEVEL TEMPS
COMBINED WITH DIURNAL LOW-LEVEL HEATING AND PRESENCE OF A WEAK
FRONTAL/CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SHOULD RESULT IN DEVELOPMENT OF SCT
AFTERNOON TSTMS...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN AREAS...WITH SMALL HAIL AND
LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AGAIN A POSSIBILITY. ANY TSTMS SHOULD DISSIPATE
QUICKLY WITH LOSS OF HEATING BY MONDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SFC RIDGING WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST ALLOWING SKIES
TO CLEAR AND KEEP THE WEATHER DRY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT. AFTER MORNING LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S...WE EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND INTO THE LOWER 80S ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH MID 80S
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAT AREA (FA).
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE UPPER 50S TO THE LOWER 60S
TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

LONG TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO BE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PD. OVERALL FLOW PATTERN LOOKS TO BE SIMILAR TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY. SYNOPTIC FLOW PATTERN WILL TAKE ON A RIDGE IN THE
WEST WITH A BROAD TROF IN THE EAST WHICH WILL RESULT IN A GENERAL
NORTHWEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.

OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS THE WEEK GOES ON
WITH SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA CRUISING THROUGH THE FLOW. THE EXACT
TIMING OF THESE WAVES IS RATHER DIFFICULT AT THIS TIME FRAME.
HOWEVER IT DOES APPEAR THAT ONE WAVE WILL AFFECT THE REGION LATE
WEDNESDAY WITH A SECONDARY ONE CRUISING IN AROUND FRIDAY AND THEN
YET ANOTHER ONE AROUND LATE SUNDAY. WITH EACH WAVE...WE EXPECT A
CLUSTER OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THEM...HOWEVER...EVEN IN THE
ABSENCE OF THE VORTS...STRONG DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL RESULT IN DIURNAL CONVECTION ACROSS THE
REGION. THEREFORE...WILL BE KEEPING A DAILY CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FCST FOR WED-SUN...WITH THE BEST CHANCES MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS...AM EXPECTING ANOTHER MODERATING TREND IN
TEMPS. TEMPS SHOULD RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE PERIOD WITH
AFTERNOON READINGS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S AND OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. GENERALLY STAYED PRETTY CLOSE TO THE
GFS ENSEMBLE MOS THROUGH THE PD...WHICH MAINTAINS EXCELLENT
CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS FCST.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

CU FIELD DEVELOPING AT THIS TIME OVER MUCH OF FCST AREA...WITH MOST
PRONOUNCED CU S AND E OF BWG AND LEX. MEANWHILE...MORE SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUDS CURRENTLY MOVING SEWD OVER SRN IL AND WRN IN AHEAD OF A
SHORTWAVE TROF JUST TO W OF CLOUD AXIS. SCT TSTMS BEGINNING TO
DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF CLOUD AXIS IN AREA OF HEATING. THESE WILL MOVE
SEWD WITH ADDITIONAL SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.
TSTMS SHOULD REMAIN SCT FOR THE MOST PART...SO WILL INCLUDE VCTS IN
TAF SITES STARTING MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND ENDING LATER THIS
EVENING. PREVAILING WIND WILL BE SW TO W AROUND 10 KTS OR LESS...BUT
ISOLATED WIND GUSTS OF 30-40 KTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
CELLS. OVERNIGHT...COULD AGAIN SEE AREAS OF MVFR IN FOG/HAZE TOWARD
DAYBREAK.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...TWF
LONG TERM....MJ
AVIATION.....TWF

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