River Flood Warning 53, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
728 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2008

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ENTIRE AREA. AREAL FLOOD OR FLASH
FLOOD WARNINGS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA.

HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY
AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA. WE HAVE HAD REPORTS OF ROADS CLOSED BY
HIGH WATER IN A NUMBER OF AREAS HAD ROADS CLOSED. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF 2 INCHES WAS REPORTED AT MANY LOCATIONS FOR THURSDAY AND MOST
AREAS WILL SEE A GOOD BIT OF RAIN OVERNIGHT AND DURING THE DAY
FRIDAY BEFORE THE RAIN FINALLY DIMINISHES. THEREFORE WILL KEEP WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

AT 06Z THE FRONT WAS LOCATED NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA. ANOTHER LOW OVER ARKANSAS
WAS MOVING NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT. AS THESE LOWS CONTINUE THEIR
NORTHEASTWARD TREK THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIP SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL
KENTUCKY THIS MORNING AND THE HEAVY RAIN WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST INTO
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA. HOWEVER LIGHTER
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST OVER THE NORTH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. FLOODING
PROBLEMS WILL PERSIST UNTIL THE RAIN FINALLY COMES TO AN END
TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING THE BAND OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN
STRETCHED FROM FRANKFORT THROUGH ELIZABETHTOWN WEST AND SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MORGANTOWN IN BUTLER COUNTY. THE LINE WILL SLIDE SLOWLY TO
THE SOUTH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE LIKELY WITH THE
HEAVIER STORMS. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING THE
THUNDERSTORMS AND RAIN AND WILL KEEP THE HEAVY RAIN GOING SEVERAL
MORE HOURS.

EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO STAY IN THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S FOR A FEW
HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THEN TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
SLOWLY IN THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOWS TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE LOWER
AND MID 40S WITH CLOUDS HOLDING THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE DURING THE DAY SATURDAY WITH A GOOD
BIT OF SUNSHINE ON SUNDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA THEN
SETTLES OVER THE OHIO VALLEY.  VERY FEW CHANGES TO THIS PART OF THE
FORECAST DUE TO ONGOING FLOODING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

A DRY ZONAL PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF THE
EXTENDED...FOLLOWED BY A TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE ACTIVE
PATTERN MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY...

THE FRONT WILL BE EAST OF OUR CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEKEND...WHICH WILL BRING A MUCH NEEDED DRY COUPLE OF DAYS. TEMPS
WILL BE A LITTLE ON THE COOL SIDE FOR SATURDAY...WITH TEMPS
REBOUNDING INTO THE MID 50S N TO THE LOW 60S S. HOWEVER BY SUNDAY
WITH ZONAL FLOW IN FULL EFFECT AND SFC WINDS SHIFTING AROUND TO THE
SE...TEMPS WILL BE VERY NICE WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.

MONDAY-TUESDAY...

BY THE WORK WEEK...TROUGHING INITIATES OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...WITH SWRLY FLOW OVER OUR REGION. A WEAK SFC LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TRIES TO DRAG A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT
APPEARS TO MOSTLY WASH OUT WITH THE 12Z GFS RUN...SO HAVE BACKED OFF
ON POPS TO JUST SLT CHC OVER THE NNE PART OF THE CWA. NOT EVEN SURE
I WILL KEEP THOSE POPS IN THERE OR NOW.

HOWEVER DURING THIS TIME...A STRONGER SYSTEM APPEARS TO DEVELOP OVER
THE CENTRAL PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGHING. THIS
SYSTEM WOULD AFFECT OUR REGION BY LATE TUESDAY. IF THE TROUGH DIGS
TOO MUCH...THIS LOW WILL TRAVEL MORE TOWARD THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR THE SYSTEM TO DRAG A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA. BUT RIGHT NOW...THE GFS SHOWS A POTENT LOW WITH THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE CWA BY TUESDAY...GENERALLY LATER IN THE
DAY. AHEAD OF THIS...TUESDAY SHOULD BE VERY WARM AND WINDY...WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 70S. THIS COLD FRONT COULD BRING POSSIBLY STRONG
T-STORMS ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL FOR SURE.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...

AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...CONTINUED POPS OVER THE EASTERN CWA.
HOWEVER OUR SW FLOW CONTINUES BEHIND THE FRONT SO NOT EXPECTING A
COOL DOWN. IN FACT...ANOTHER SYSTEM RIGHT ON ITS TOES APPROACHES THE
CWA LATE THURSDAY...AND THIS ALSO LOOKS LIKE IT HAS POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE STRONG T-STORMS THRS-THRS NIGHT. AGAIN ITS TOO EARLY TO GET
CUTE WITH THOSE DETAILS...BUT FROM TUESDAY ON...WE ARE LOOKING AT A
WARM AND WET SPRING-LIKE PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN HAD MOVED
INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTHEAST OUT OUR AREA OF CONCERN.
LIGHTER TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WAS FALLING OVER THE NORTHERN
HALF OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND MOST CIGS AND VSBYS HAD IMPROVED TO
VFR. AT 11Z THE COLD FRONT WAS STILL NORTH OF THE OHIO RIVER WITH
TAF SITES IN THE WARM IN THE WARM SECTOR. MOST CIGS AND VSBYS WERE
VFR.

THE WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL END AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 12Z AT SDF AND
2-3 HOURS LATER AT LEX. BWG WILL HAVE RAIN...SOME HEAVY FOR A FEW
MORE HOURS. AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH CIGS AND VSBYS WILL LOWER
IN FOG AND WILL LIKELY GO IFR FOR A FEW HOURS. CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO MVFR LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.
&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOLZ
LONG TERM....MBS/AL
AVIATION.....SCHOLZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
450 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050900-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
450 AM EDT FRI APR 4 2008 /350 AM CDT FRI APR 4 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INDIANA THE RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY MID MORNING BUT MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE REST OF THE AREA THROUGH
NOONTIME BEFORE IT STARTS TO DIMINISH FROM THE NORTH. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF OVER AN INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT
AND FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED IN LOW AREAS AND ON CREEKS AND
STREAMS. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASING THE FLOODING
PROBLEMS.

THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DANGEROUS
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS
THAT ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEAVY RAINFALL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER SHOULD REPORT INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE...AND REPORT FLOODING TO EITHER LOCAL LAW
ENFORCEMENT OR THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

MBS

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