River Flood Warning 45, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
930 AM EDT THU APR 3 2008

.MID MORNING UPDATE...

UPDATED FORECAST TO SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
BASICALLY NORTH OF THE BLUEGRASS PARKWAY. SHORT RANGE MODELS SUPPORT
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS IN PLACING THE STATIONARY FRONT WAY SOUTH
ACROSS SOUTHERN TENNESSEE. DESPITE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT...EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS WILL REALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOL
THIS AFTERNOON FROM CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND NORTH. TEMPS ACROSS
SOUTHERN INDIANA AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 64 MAY HAVE A DIFFICULT
TIME REACHING 50.

A WARM FRONT ATTEMPTS TO MOVE NORTH OVERNIGHT AS FAR AS THE OHIO
RIVER. SHOULD IT ACTUALLY MOVE THIS FAR NORTH...EXPECT TEMPS TO RISE
TO THE MID 50S OVERNIGHT.

.EARLY MORNING MESO-UPDATE...

THE MESO-NAM SEEMS TO HAVE INITIALIZED THE RAIN AT 12Z REASONABLY
WELL. IT ACCURATELY PRODUCED THE WIDE AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN NOW
MOVING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. LOCAL MESONET OBSERVATIONS
CONFIRM THAT RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF OF AN INCH
FELL WITH THIS FIRST BATCH THAT BY 830 AM EDT...HAD JUST ABOUT MOVED
EAST OF INTERSTATE 65. THROUGH LATE MORNING...EXPECT SOME
OCCASIONAL BREAKS IN RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY ONCE
THIS AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN MOVES EAST OF THE SOUTHERN BLUEGRASS.
ACROSS SOUTHERN INDIANA...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN WILL
DEVELOP BY 930 AM AND MOVE EAST OF INTERSTATE 65 BY 10 AM. JSD

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...

THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE THE WAVES OF HEAVY RAIN MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THIS PERIOD.

MODELS CONTINUE TO BE CONSISTENT IN BRINING WIDESPREAD AND HEAVY
RAIN ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH A SECOND WAVE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS FORECAST FOR THE AREA AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF RIVER FLOODING SEEMS LIKELY WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN MOST
LOCATIONS WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS.,

THE FIRST WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL COME TODAY...
BRISK SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE BRINING GULF MOISTURE NORTH WITH THIS FLOW
RISING UP OVER A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE
GULF STATES EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERRUNNING RAIN HAS ALREADY SPREAD
INTO THE WESTERN PARTS OF THE AREA AND AT 07Z WAS JUST WEST OF
BOWLING GREEN. AS THE FRONT MOVES NORTH INTO TENNESSEE TODAY...
OVERRUNNING RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE
AREA. THE BAND OF HEAVIEST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE ACROSS CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...PRIMARILY BETWEEN SDF AND BWG THEN ON TOWARD LEXINGTON.
THIS PRECIPITATION WILL BE AN OVERRUNNING EVENT.

THE NEXT WAVE WILL COME TONIGHT...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEAST INTO THE PLAINS STATES
TODAY. AS THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES MOVING EAST...LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TRACK NORTHEAST INTO KENTUCKY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL TRIGGER ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN AND
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. THIS BAND ALSO LOOKS TO BE
FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH MANY AREAS RECEIVING 1.5 TO 2
INCHES OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CONTINUING ON FRIDAY.

WITH THE FRONT PUSHING NORTH SOME PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY
COULD GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR THIS AFTERNOON OR MORE LIKELY TONIGHT
AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE
THE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS
COULD SEE INCREASED RAIN AMOUNTS.

WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS MORNING THROUGH
FRIDAY.

KEPT HIGH TEMPERATURES AT OR A LITTLE BELOW GUIDANCE WITH ALL THE
CLOUDS AND RAIN THAT WILL BE OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM (FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...

FRI NIGHT...

FRONT SHUD BE E/SE OF OUR FORECAST AREA (FA)BY THIS TIME...WITH UPR
LEVEL POSITIVE TILT TROF TO MOVE INTO THE FA DURG THE NIGHT. OUR CHC
POPS FOR THE PERIOD LOOK A LITTLE LOW BASED ON THE NEW GUID...GFS
AND ITS ENSEMBLES SHOW ANOTHER WAVE MOVG UP THE FRONT INTO ETN BY
06Z SAT...RESULTING IN DEEPENING MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY S AND E PARTS
OF OUR FA. WILL BUMP POPS TO LIKELY IN THESE AREAS. NAM IS ON BOARD
WITH THIS AS WELL...SHOWING ANOTHER INCH OF SO OF RAIN OVER OUR SERN
SECTIONS.

SAT THRU WED...

WILL MAKE NO CHGS HERE...FOCUSING ON THIS UPCOMING HEAVY RAIN EVENT.
PREV DISCUSSION FOR THAT PERIOD FOLLOWS:

THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK SHOULD BRING MUCH DRIER AND MORE
BENIGN WEATHER. LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ERODE BY EARLY SATURDAY AND THUS
THE AFTERNOON WILL BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING RIGHT
OVERHEAD SATURDAY...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT...WITH COOLISH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 60S. A DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT FROM THE
ROCKIES SUNDAY AND TRACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES BY LATE
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON.

AS THIS UPPER LOW MOVES NORTH OF US MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS MONDAY.

IN GENERAL...TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING EARLY PART OF NEXT WEEK
WILL BE SEASONAL.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

RAIN HAD SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AT 1045Z WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY. CIGS
WERE STILL VFR BUT VSBYS HAD DROPPED TO 5 MILES AT BWG. CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY TODAY WITH CIGS DROPPING
INTO THE MVFR RANGE THIS MORNING AND WITH RAIN BECOMING HEAVY AT
TIMES...ESPECIALLY THIS AFTERNOON.

BRISK SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 950 MB OF 30 TO 40 KTS ARE
BRINGING A STRONG SURGE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTH FROM THE GULF.
THIS WILL KEEP MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD OF
HEAVY RAIN THIS AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND PERIOD OVERNIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG A FRONT LYING ACROSS THE LOWER OHIO
VALLEY.

THE TRACK OF HEAVIEST RAIN AND THUS LOWEST CONDITIONS WILL BE ACROSS
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AFFECTING ALL THREE TAF SITES. CONDITIONS WILL
LOWER INTO THE IFR RANGE AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...FLOOD WATCH FROM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
     INZ076>079-083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...JSD
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....JSD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
445 AM EDT THU APR 3 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-040845-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
445 AM EDT THU APR 3 2008 /345 AM CDT THU APR 3 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER TENNESSEE WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT. TWO HEAVY
RAINFALL EPISODES ARE EXPECTED. THE FIRST WILL BE DURING THE DAY
TODAY WITH THE SECOND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE OHIO RIVER. THIS RAINFALL COMBINED WITH
ALREADY SATURATED SOILS WILL RESULT IN RIVER FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING ACROSS THE AREA. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY MORNING. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA FOR
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ALSO...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT FROM ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

HEAVY RAIN AT TIMES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BEFORE ENDING
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE
RAIN ENDS. MANY AREAS WILL SEE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. DANGEROUS LIGHTNING WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT OCCUR.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF HEAVY RAINFALL OR
FLOODING TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE.

SCHOLZ/AL