Flash Flood Watch 1, NWS Louisville, KY

Clark County, IN, Crawford County, IN, Floyd County, IN, Harrison County, IN, Jefferson County, IN, Orange County, IN, Scott County, IN, Washington County, IN, Anderson County, KY, Bourbon County, KY, Boyle County, KY, Bullitt County, KY, Casey County, KY, Clark County, KY, Fayette County, KY, Franklin County, KY, Garrard County, KY, Harrison County, KY, Henry County, KY, Jefferson County, KY, Jessamine County, KY, Lincoln County, KY, Madison County, KY, Marion County, KY, Mercer County, KY, Nelson County, KY, Nicholas County, KY, Oldham County, KY, Scott County, KY, Shelby County, KY, Spencer County, KY, Trimble County, KY, Washington County, KY, Woodford County, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1113 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

.UPDATE #2...

SFC LOW SITTING OVER SRN KY/NRN TN THIS MORNING WILL MOVE NE ACROSS
CENTRAL KY THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL PUT OUR SE FORECAST AREA (FA)
IN THE WARM SECTOR NOT ONLY MAKING FOR A LARGE GRADIENT IN
TEMPS...BUT ALSO GIVING THAT SECTION OF FA A CHANCE FOR T-STORMS.
SOME OF THESE MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS IF ENOUGH SFC INSTABILITY CAN
BE REALIZED.  HAVE INSERTED THUNDER INTO GRIDS AS WELL AS DROPPED
POPS TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE INSTEAD OF WIDESPREAD.  TWEAKED TEMP
GRADIENT BASED ON 12Z ETA WHICH HAS A GOOD HANDLE ON 15Z FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES AND SFC TEMPS.

MINOR FLOODING PROBLEMS CONTINUE IN PORTIONS OF THE FA WHERE ROADS
ARE CLOSED DUE TO STANDING WATER.  WILL KEEP SPS ON THIS GOING
THROUGH AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE CHANCE OF T-STORMS WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

&&

.UPDATE...

FLOODING NO LONGER EXPECTED TO BE A PROBLEM WITH RAIN DIMINISHING IN
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE. HAVE ALREADY CANCELLED FLOOD WATCH AND WILL
BE ISSUING NEW ZONES TO REMOVE HEADLINE AND UPDATE PRECIPITATION
CHANCES. THESE CHANCES WERE LOWERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN ZONES FOR
THIS MORNING...WITH DRYING TREND IN THE AFTERNOON REMAINING THE
SAME.

ALSO LOWERED HIGH TEMPERATURES A COUPLE OF DEGREES FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST WITH COOLER START THAT EXPECTED. LITTLE REBOUND TODAY...BUT
SOME MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CLEARING THIS MORNING BEFORE TEMPERATURES
STEADY OUT AND FALL THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS.

ANOTHER AFD WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THE TOP OF THE HOUR...BUT ONLY TO
UPDATE AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...

RAIN TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH A
SLOW END TO THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL OCCUR THROUGHOUT THIS
MORNING AND EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. RATES OF UP TO ONE INCH AN HOUR
POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN...THOUGH FOR THE MOST PART SO
FAR THE AVERAGE OVERNIGHT HAS BEEN BETWEEN 0.25 AND 0.50 INCHES PER
HOUR. THIS RAIN IS STEADY...BUT NOT HEAVY ENOUGH FOR ANY FLASH
FLOODING CONCERNS...THOUGH SOME LOCALIZED AREAL FLOODING IS STILL
POSSIBLE. WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME...SINCE IT IS STILL
RAINING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. DO ANTICIPATE SOME CANCELLATIONS IN
THE WESTERN ZONES ONCE RAIN SHUTS OFF TOWARD SUNRISE...SO AN EARLY
MORNING UPDATE WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY TO TAKE CARE OF THIS (5-6AM
EST APPROX). AN UPDATE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND THAT TIME AS WELL IF NO
CHANGES TO THE WATCH WILL BE MADE.

WOULD EXPECT EASTERN ZONES TO REMAIN IN THE WATCH UNTIL AT LEAST
SCHEDULED EXPIRATION TIME WITH MODERATE RAIN POTENTIALLY CONTINUING
A FEW HOURS INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WILL LET DAY SHIFT TAKE KEEP WATCH
ON THE FAR EASTERN ZONES. RAIN WEAKENS AND SHIFTS EAST BY THIS
EVENING WITH ONLY SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUING INTO TONIGHT.

CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT IS IF ANY SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE AREA AND
IF SO HOW MUCH. BULK OF THE MOISTURE WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW THAT WILL BE WELL OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST BY THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT...WITH ONLY A LITTLE MOISTURE
AVAILABLE WITH THE UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THROUGH KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SNOW CHANCE MENTION MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT...WITH FOCUS AGAIN ON NORTHEASTERN ZONES WHERE A FEW TENTHS
COULD ACCUMULATE. HOWEVER...DO NOT REALLY EXPECT MUCH TO STICK
CONSIDERING WET GROUND AND TEMPERATURES HOVERING RIGHT AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK. COULD SEE SOME WET ROADS FREEZE IN SPOTS OVERNIGHT AS
WELL...THOUGH INCREASING WINDS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT SHOULD HELP TO
DRY ROAD SURFACES BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL BELOW  FREEZING
PREVENTING ICE FROM BECOMING A WIDESPREAD PROBLEM.

.LONG-TERM (WEDNESDAY-MONDAY)...

ACTIVE PATTERN WITH ONLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS EXPECTED.
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY WITH A WRLY FLOW
CONTINUING. THIS WILL HELP KEEP TEMPS FROM DROPPING OFF TOO MUCH ON
WED...WITH HIGHS IN THE 40S TO AROUND 50 EXPECTED. BASICALLY AT OR
JUST BELOW NORMALS. BUT BY EARLY THURSDAY...STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER
THE PLAINS WILL DRIVE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION...WHICH WILL
BRING A CHANCE OF A RA/SN MIX IN THE MORNING...BUT RAIN BY THE
AFTERNOON AS IT WARMS UP ENOUGH TO CHANGEOVER. HOWEVER KEPT THE POPS
LOW SINCE THE QPF AMOUNTS ARE PRETTY MINIMAL.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...

AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL DIVE THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY...BRINGING WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TO THE REGION AS THE GFS
AND EURO INDICATE. KEPT A SNOW OR RAIN/SNOW MIX FOR FRIDAY AND
FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AXIS. MAY BE ENOUGH QPF GENERATED
TO PRODUCE A DUSTING OF SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DID NOT GET CARRIED
AWAY WITH AMOUNTS YET. COULD HAVE FLURRIES LINGERING INTO SATURDAY
BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW. WENT WELL BELOW HPC GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY WITH THE ENSEMBLES (GFS) INDICATING
TEMPS 10 (20) DEGREES BELOW NORMAL THIS FAR OUT BRRR.
HOWEVER...JUST A COUPLE OF DAYS OF COLD WEATHER. WE SHOULD REBOUND
NICELY LATE IN THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...

THE COLD WEATHER OF FRI-SAT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS WE SHOULD REBOUND
DURING THIS TIME FRAME BACK TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES WITH WRLY FLOW
ALOFT HELPING TO MODERATE TEMPS. GFS AND GFS ENSEMBLES HINT AT
ANOTHER FRONT PASSING THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT THE EURO DOES NOT SHOW
THIS...AND THE QPF LOOKS MINIMAL ANYWAY. THUS LEFT MONDAY DRY FOR
NOW.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAFS)...

RAIN DIMINISHING ACROSS THE AREA THOUGH MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL
CONTINUE IN RAIN AND FOG THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD. THOUGH
SOME BREAKS IN PRECIPITATION LIKELY THROUGHOUT THE TAF PERIOD...CIGS
AND VIS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN PREVAILING IFR/MVFR. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KSDF AND KLEX AFTER 06Z WITH CONTINUED IFR/MVFR
CIGS AND VIS. SOME IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN SHORTLY
AFTER THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...NONE.
IN...NONE.
&&

UPDATE.......MACZKO/AML
SHORT TERM...MACZKO
LONG TERM....AL
AVIATION.....MACZKO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1145 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-050930-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
1145 AM EST TUE MAR 4 2008 /1045 AM CST TUE MAR 4 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THE
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL...SMALL HAIL...AND CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING. IN ADDITION... BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY EAST OF BOWLING GREEN.

SOME MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS EXPECTED ON PARTS OF THE GREEN AND
ROUGH RIVERS IN SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...STONER CREEK IN EAST
CENTRAL KENTUCKY...AND ON THE MUSCATATUCK AND BLUE RIVERS IN
SOUTHERN INDIANA. MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING
AND WATCH FOR ANY WATER COVERED ROADS OR LOW SPOTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY INSTANCES OF FLOODING AND
HEAVY RAINFALL TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LOUISVILLE.

TWF/11

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1255 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

INZ078-079-092-KYZ028>034-038-045-041900-
SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-CLARK IN-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-JEFFERSON KY-
OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-SPENCER KY-NELSON KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...JEFFERSONVILLE...
ELIZABETHTOWN...FORT KNOX...MOUNT WASHINGTON...SHEPHERDSVILLE...
LOUISVILLE...LA GRANGE...BEDFORD...NEW CASTLE...SHELBYVILLE...
TAYLORSVILLE...BARDSTOWN
1255 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA THROUGH 2 PM EST. IN ADDITION TO THE HAIL...THE STORMS
WILL PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY RAINS THAT WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL
RISES ON ALREADY SWOLLEN SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS.

IF YOU ARE DRIVING THIS AFTERNOON...BE AWARE OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
MINOR FLOODING AND HEAVY PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
102 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

INZ076-077-041830-
ORANGE-WASHINGTON-
102 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE OVER ORANGE AND WASHINGTON
COUNTIES...

AT 1258 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ORANGE AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES AND MOVING
NORTH AT 30 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH THROUGH ORANGE AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES THROUGH 130 PM EST.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...MODERATE RAIN WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
AROUND ONE HALF INCH PER HOUR REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO LESS THAN
THREE MILES...SMALL PEA SIZE HAIL...AND GUSTY WINDS OF AROUND 30 TO
40 MPH... ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. MOVE INDOORS IF
POSSIBLE. STAY TUNED TO NOAA ALL HAZARDS
RADIO...WEATHER.GOV/LOUISVILLE ON THE INTERNET...OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR
LATER UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

AML

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
114 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

KYZ047-055-066-067-078-041845-
BOYLE-CASEY-LINCOLN-MERCER-RUSSELL-
114 PM EST TUE MAR 4 2008

...STRONG STORMS AFFECTING BOYLE...CASEY...LINCOLN...MERCER AND
RUSSELL COUNTIES...

AT 109 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE FROM SPRINGFIELD TO 7 MILES SOUTH
OF JAMESTOWN...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

FREQUENT DEADLY LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN...PEA SIZED HAIL...AND GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH...ARE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR LIBERTY BY 130 PM EST.
  NEAR HARRODSBURG BY 145 PM EST.

THESE STORMS WILL BE...
  NEAR SALEM BY 1220 PM CST.
  NEAR WINDSOR BY 125 PM EST.
  NEAR PERRYVILLE BY 135 PM EST.
  NEAR YOSEMITE BY 140 PM EST.
  NEAR SHAKERTOWN BY 145 PM EST.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING. EXPECT PONDING OF WATER ON LOCAL
ROADWAYS. DRIVERS SHOULD SLOW DOWN AND TURN ON THEIR HEADLIGHTS IF
ENCOUNTERING HEAVY RAINS.

13