Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Louisville, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
320 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY)...

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOCUS AROUND THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA DURING THE
TONIGHT PERIOD.

THE ENTIRE AREA IS IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE AND AS OF 19Z THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA ARE IN A TORNADO
WATCH UNTIL 03Z. ALSO A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR STRONG GUSTS
WITH GRADIENT WINDS FOR TONIGHT.

A MID LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT
MOVES TO THE EAST AND THIS ALONG WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING
EAST OUT OF MISSOURI WILL TRIGGER STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MAIN THREAT EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BE
OVER THE WEST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE STORMS WILL MOVE INTO
AREAS EAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA LATER IN THE EVENING. THE
INSTABILITY WITH THIS SYSTEM IS WEAK BUT THE SHEAR IS STRONG ENOUGH
TO TRIGGER AT LEAST SOME SEVERE STORMS.

THE MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL END SHORTLY AFTER THE FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH GUSTS
DIMINISHING AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY
WITH CLOUDS DECREASING. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOME 10 TO 15 DEGREES
COOLER ON WEDNESDAY THAN THE RECORD HIGHS RECORDED TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...

UNSETTLED PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED WITH BEFORE
ADVERTISED SLOW COOL DOWN OF TEMPERATURES OCCURING THROUGHOUT EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

SYSTEM WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY FIRST RAIN MAKER WITH SOME
UNCERTAINTY OF THE TRACK OF WAVE ENERGY AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. NAM MODEL CONTINUES TO BRING THIS ENERGY AND A
DEVELOP A WEAK SURFACE LOW AHEAD ACROSS KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT...WHICH
WOULD SPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. THIS IN
CONTRAST WITH THE GFS MODEL AND OTHER MID RANGE MODELS THAT KEEP
THIS WAVE ENERGY WELL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH TO THE EAST OF THE
APPALACHIANS...THUS LIMITING PRECIPITATION MAINLY TO EASTERN
KENTUCKY AND THE EASTERN CWA. WILL CONTINUE TO SIDE WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE MODELS AND FOCUS HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE EASTERN ZONES...BUT LEAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY 20
POPS ACROSS THE WEST TO INDICATE THERE IS STILL A CHANCE IF THE NAM
SOLUTION VERIFIES.

MAIN TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH AGREEMENT ON ALL THE
MODELS THAT THIS WILL PRODUCE RAIN AT LEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND HAVE FOCUSED AGAIN ON HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ZONES.

TROUGH MOVES QUICKLY TO THE EAST WITH DRYING RAPIDLY OCCURING
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE
GREAT LAKES...WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY AND HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
DRY PERIOD FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. UPPER TROUGH SWINGS
ADDITIONAL WAVE ENERGY SOUTH THROUGH KENTUCKY BY EARLY SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER GOOD SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION OCCURING FROM EARLY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. COLDER AIR BEGINS TO WORK IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM...SO SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFS)...

LOWER ATMOSPHERE HAS BECOME MIXED AND WINDS WERE GUSTING AT THE
SURFACE TO 35 TO 45 KTS. WITH THE GUSTS OCCURRING AT THE SURFACE AND
THROUGHOUT THE LOWER LAYERS HAVE DISCONTINUED THE LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR FOR NOW.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES MORE WIDESPREAD AREA OF SHOWERS
MOVING ACROSS AREA NEAR HNB (NEAR JASPER). THE SHOWERS WERE MOVING
NORTHEAST AND WITH THE AREA SPREADING SLOWLY TO THE EAST.

THE STRONGER STORMS TO THE WEST WILL ARRIVE IN BWG 22Z-02Z...IN SDF
BETWEEN 00Z-04Z...AND LEX BETWEEN 02Z-06Z. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO
THE AREA CIGS AND VSBYS WILL DROP INTO MVFR RANGE THEN WITH THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS EXPECT VSBYS WILL LOWER INTO IFR DURING THE
HEAVIER RAIN. EXPECT SOME WIND GUSTS TO GREATER THAN 60 KTS IN
SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS.

STRONG GRADIENT WINDS WILL CONTINUE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KTS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE SEVERAL HOURS AFTER THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. BUT
SHOULD RETURN TO 10-15 KT RANGE AROUND 12Z.

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ023>043-
     045>049-053>057-061>067-070>078-081-082.

IN...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST /6 AM CST/ WEDNESDAY FOR INZ076>079-
     083-084-089>092.

&&

SHORT TERM...SCHOLZ
LONG TERM....MACZKO
AVIATION.....SCHOLZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
351 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>043-045>049-053>057-061>067-
070>078-081-082-092100-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-GRAYSON KY-HARDIN KY-BULLITT KY-
JEFFERSON KY-OLDHAM KY-TRIMBLE KY-HENRY KY-SHELBY KY-FRANKLIN KY-
SCOTT KY-HARRISON KY-SPENCER KY-ANDERSON KY-WOODFORD KY-
FAYETTE KY-BOURBON KY-NICHOLAS KY-NELSON KY-WASHINGTON KY-
MERCER KY-JESSAMINE KY-CLARK KY-LARUE KY-MARION KY-BOYLE KY-
GARRARD KY-MADISON KY-BUTLER KY-EDMONSON KY-HART KY-GREEN KY-
TAYLOR KY-CASEY KY-LINCOLN KY-LOGAN KY-WARREN KY-SIMPSON KY-
ALLEN KY-BARREN KY-MONROE KY-METCALFE KY-ADAIR KY-RUSSELL KY-
CUMBERLAND KY-CLINTON KY-
351 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008 /251 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST FOR ALL OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
INDIANA AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KENTUCKY AND WEST-CENTRAL KENTUCKY...

AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS BEING THE
PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO MAY BE
POSSIBLE AS WELL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 5
PM TO 8 PM EST WEST OF A LINE FROM JASPER INDIANA TO BOWLING
GREEN...FROM 7 PM TO 11 PM EST IN LOUISVILLE AND ALONG INTERSTATE
65...AND FROM 9 PM TO 1 AM EST IN LEXINGTON AND ALONG INTERSTATE
75.

A WIND ADVISORY IS ALSO IN EFFECT THROUGH TONIGHT. WIND
GUSTS...NOT RELATED TO THUNDERSTORMS...WILL BE AROUND 50 MPH AT
TIMES THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. THE STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
A HAZARD TO TRAVELERS...SO USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT INSTANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
LOUISVILLE OR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT.

AL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
1234 PM EST TUE JAN 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     NON-TSTM WND DMG LEXINGTON               38.04N 84.46W
01/08/2008                   FAYETTE            KY   BROADCAST MEDIA

            STREET LIGHTS WERE DOWNED ON NEWTOWN AND MAIN AND ON HIGH
            STREET. A 51 MPH WIND GUST WAS REPORTED AT BLUEGRASS
            FIELD AROUND 945 AM.

&&

MRC

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
525 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008

INZ076>079-083-084-089>092-KYZ023>026-082330-
ORANGE IN-WASHINGTON IN-SCOTT IN-JEFFERSON IN-DUBOIS IN-
CRAWFORD IN-PERRY IN-HARRISON IN-FLOYD IN-CLARK IN-HANCOCK KY-
BRECKINRIDGE KY-MEADE KY-OHIO KY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PAOLI...SALEM...SCOTTSBURG...MADISON...
JASPER...MARENGO...TELL CITY...CORYDON...NEW ALBANY...
JEFFERSONVILLE...HAWESVILLE...HARDINSBURG...BRANDENBURG...
BEAVER DAM
525 PM EST TUE JAN 8 2008 /425 PM CST TUE JAN 8 2008/

...HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS...

THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND THAT PART OF WEST CENTRAL KENTUCKY...WEST OF
INTERSTATE 65 BY 630 PM EST. RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA...CAUSING HEAVY PONDING OF WATER AND
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. MINOR FLOODING MAY OCCUR
IN POORLY DRAINED AREAS.

NEVER DRIVE AROUND A BARRICADE WHICH IS THERE FOR YOUR
PROTECTION. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO
RECOGNIZE FLOOD DANGERS.

DK