Wind Advisory 5, NWS Elko, NV

000 
WWUS75 KLKN 241659
NPWLKN

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
859 AM PST SUN FEB 24 2008


NVZ013-035-037-241800-
/O.EXP.KLKN.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-080224T1700Z/
NORTHERN NYE COUNTY-WHITE PINE COUNTY-
SOUTHERN LANDER COUNTY AND SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TONOPAH...ELY...RUTH...MCGILL...
AUSTIN...EUREKA...DIAMOND VALLEY
859 AM PST SUN FEB 24 2008

...WIND ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING...

THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WILL EXPIRE
AT 9 AM PST THIS MORNING. WILL WILL CONTINUE TO BE BRISK OUT OF
THE SOUTH TODAY ACROSS WHITE PINE...SOUTHERN LANDER AND
EUREKA...AND NORTHERN NYE COUNTIES...AT SPEEDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH.


$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
216 PM PST SAT FEB 23 2008

.SYNOPSIS... A STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TONIGHT
BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW ALONG WITH WINDY CONDITIONS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ON SUNDAY BEFORE THE STORM PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION ON MONDAY FOR DRY WEATHER THROUGH
THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. WV IMAGERY AT 20Z SHOWS DEEP
LOW CENTERED NEAR 38N 133.7W...SLOWLY APPROACHING CALI COAST.
130+ KT H3 JET IS ROUNDING BASE OF TROUGH AND BEGINNING TO NUDGE
INTO CENTRAL CAL. HIGH CLOUDS QUICKLY MOVING IN FROM THE WEST
WITH SHOWERS JUST BEGINNING TO ENTER WESTERN NV BASED ON REGIONAL
RADAR. TEMPS ACROSS THE CWA RUNNING IN 30S TO LOW 40S MOST
LOCATIONS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE WIND AND PRECIP OVERNIGHT AS STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES REGION. MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO
WIND AS H7 WINDS IN 40-50KT RANGE...BUT DIFFERENCES IN QPF PLACEMENT
BETWEEN NAM/GFS/ECMWF EXIST OVERNIGHT. GFS/ECMWF HINT AT HEAVIEST
BAND OF PRECIP RUNNING FROM AROUND AUSTIN NORTHEAST THROUGH ELKO
COUNTY WITH 12HR QPF AMOUNTS GENERALLY .2 TO .3 INCHES. IN
CONTRAST...NAM HAS LIGHTER AMOUNTS ACROSS THOSE AREAS AND FOCUSES
HEAVIER PRECIP OF .35 TO .45 INCHES ACROSS NORTHERN NYE AND
SOUTHERN WHITE PINE AND NORTHERN CWA. SREF OUTPUT TENDS TO FAVOR NAM
SOLUTION WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF .25+ INCHES TONIGHT
NEAR NORTHERN NYE/WHITE PINE BORDER AND NORTHERN ELKO. THEREFORE...
QUESTIONABLE CONFIDENCE IN QPF PLACEMENT TONIGHT. AS PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED SURFACE TEMPS IN 30S AND 40S WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW
STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT RESULTS IN SNOW LEVELS HOVERING AROUND 5500
FEET. PREVIOUS THINKING OF WINDS REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LIMITS
STILL LOOKS REASONABLE. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW DECENT DECOUPLING SO
STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL HAVE TROUBLE MIXING TO SURFACE OVERNIGHT. MAY
SEE SOME ISOLATED STRONGER GUSTS AFFECTING HIGHER TERRAIN...BUT DO
NOT BELIEVE IT WILL BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT WIND ADVISORY.
OTHER CONCERN IS POSSIBILITY OF WIND/SNOW COMBINATION CAUSING SOME
LOW VISIBILITY PROBLEMS. THINK THIS WOULD BE MAINLY CONFINED TO HIGH
TERRAIN ABOVE 6000 FEET SO WILL REFRAIN FROM ANY HEADLINES BUT
CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS CONDITIONS DEVELOP. FOR NOW HAVE A SPECIAL
WEATHER STATEMENT OUT TO HIGHLIGHT THE INCOMING SYSTEM.

ON SUNDAY UPPER LOW FILLS WITH TROUGH AXIS LOCATED ALONG CALIFORNIA
AT 00Z. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW COOLING ALOFT RESULTING IN LESS
STABLE LAPSE RATES WITH LI/S NEAR 0 AND CAPE AOB 100J/KG. CURRENT
FORECAST FOR NUMEROUS SHOWERS CONTINUES TO LOOK GOOD. SAVADEL

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...MODELS INDICATE THAT A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THE LONG TERM WEATHER PATTERN
THIS WEEK. WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REACH IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S IN NORTHERN NEVADA AND UP TO AROUND 60
IN CENTRAL NEVADA. LOWS WILL GREATLY DEPEND ON SNOW COVER...MID
LEVEL WINDS...AND CLOUD COVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOOK TO DROP INTO
THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S OVER MUCH OF THE CWA. TOWARDS THE END OF
THE WEEK...HIGHS WILL TRY TO REACH INTO THE 50S IN NORTHERN NEVADA
AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PROGGED TO MAKE ITS WAY INTO
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND. IPPI
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY MUCH OF NEVADA IS UNDER CLOUD COVER. MOST OF
THE CEILINGS ARE STILL VFR WITH SOME MVFR. THESE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS AS A STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES. CEILINGS...AS WELL AS VISIBILITIES WILL DROP TONIGHT AS
PRECIPITATION BEGINS. LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE THE ONSET AS RAIN
THEN CHANGE TO A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BY THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.
WIND MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA
WHERE GUSTS COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 40 KTS IN SOME LOCALIZED AREAS.
THIS STORM SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OUT BY SUNDAY MORNING...LEAVING
BEHIND SOME LINGERING SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.
&&

LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.