Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Elko, NV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
316 AM PDT WED MAY 7 2008

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE SILVER STATE TODAY
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON TAPERING OFF BY
EVENING. AFTER A CHILLY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A DRY DAY ON THURSDAY...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED CONDITIONS. &&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. INCREASING MID-CLOUD DECK
RIDING ACROSS THE CWFA THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE RIDGE PATTERN THIS
MORNING. RADAR SHOWING SOME DECENT RETURNS BUT BELOW 15K FEET IS VERY
DRY THIS MORNING. RAINING AT EKO AND LKN ATTM UNDER STRONGEST RADAR
REFLECTIVITY AND SHOWERS BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES AND IS
CURRENTLY 50 DEGREES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
AT THE SURFACE BEFORE MORNING.

SHORT TERM MODELS AGREE ON PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT WAVE
RIDGING TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A RE-ENFORCING SHOT OF COOLER AIR ON THURSDAY.
GFS MODEL SHOWS NEXT SHORTWAVE AXIS OVER NW NV BY 12Z THIS MORNING
WITH A BULLSEYE 0.3+ QPF OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY AS WEAK FRONT
DRAGS THROUGH. AGAIN THIS MOISTURE WILL HARDLY MAKE IT TO THE LOWER
VALLEYS...HOWEVER BY EARLY THIS MORNING THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD
DO WELL WITH SNOW LEVELS DIPPING DOWN TO ABOUT 7K FEET.

INSTABILITY SHOWING UP THIS AFTERNOON. APPEARS FOCUS WILL BE
PRIMARILY OVER EAST CENTRAL NEVADA WHERE SOME SCATTERED TS ACTIVITY
COULD DEVELOP. NEGATIVE LIFTED INDICES SHOW UP EVERYWHERE EAST OF
HUMBOLDT COUNTY. HOWEVER A 50KT JET FEATURE AT 400 MB IS DENOTED OVER
WHITE PINE COUNTY BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE 700 MB THETA-E RIDGING
ALIGNS THROUGH SOUTHWEST NEVADA AND ALONG THE SIERRAS...HOWEVER THERE
IS AN INDICATION OF A SECONDARY RIDGING OF THETA-E OVER WHITE PINE
COUNTY AND THE SOUTHERN END OF THE RUBY MOUNTAINS WITH AN ASSOCIATED
WEAK CON/DIV COUPLET OVER WHITE PINE AS WELL. SCATTERED TS MAY POP UP
OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY AS WELL AS ALL ALONG HIGHWAY 50 LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. POS AND NEG STRIKES OCCURRING ALREADY OVER THE SIERRAS.
THIS SW LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE STATE BY EARLY EVENING AND THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL STABILIZE. A DRY PERIOD WILL FOLLOW AHEAD OF NEXT
SHORTWAVE SPINNING AROUND UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHERN CANADA.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY COOL A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY. WILL ADJUST AS
NEEDED. FORECAST APPEARS TO BE IN GOOD SHAPE. LW

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY. MODELS ARE NOW IN
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN EMBEDDED TROUGH IN
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS TO THE NE HALF
OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. CWA SHOULD BE DRY FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS WEAK RIDGING REBUILDS OVER THE
REGION. A COLDER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIP SPREADING SOUTHEAST
OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS TO HOW RAPIDLY THIS
SECOND TROUGH EXITS EAST INTO UTAH. FOR NOW KEPT SOME LOW END SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE MTS OF NORTHEASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY. ROOD &&

.AVIATION...RAIN SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST INTO CENTRAL NEVADA BY LATE THIS MORNING...
WITH LOCALLY HEAVY SHOWERS POTENTIALLY LOWERING CEILINGS AND
VISIBILITIES TO MVFR LEVELS. INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE
MORNING AND INTO THIS AFTERNOON OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEVADA...FOR A THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER THE MOST
FAVORABLE AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS CENTERED SOUTH OF WMC
AND EKO...AND NORTH OF TPH AND ELY. ROOD  &&
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.