Red Flag Warning 6, NWS Elko, NV

000 
WWUS85 KLKN 190138
RFWLKN

RED FLAG WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
638 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING EXPIRING...


NVZ452-190245-
/O.EXP.KLKN.FW.W.0006.000000T0000Z-080719T0200Z/
ELKO COUNTY PLUS LANDER AND EUREKA COUNTIES NORTH OF I-80-
638 PM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

...RED FLAG WARNING WILL EXPIRE AT 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR ZONE 452...

THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR MUCH OF ELKO COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 7 PM PDT THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH HUMIDITIES REMAIN LOW AT THIS TIME...WIND
GUSTS HAVE DIMINISHED BELOW 30 MPH. 

$$


ROOD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
416 AM PDT FRI JUL 18 2008

.SYNOPSIS...QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HOT
TEMPERATURES AND SUNNY SKIES TODAY. ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CAUSE WINDS TO PICK UP...
BRINGING MOISTURE BACK INTO CENTRAL NEVADA...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. ABOVE NORMAL
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AT 50OMB DRY ZONAL FLOW TODAY
WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL
MOISTURE...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING SHORT WAVE. GFS AND NAM DISAGREE
ON PWS ON SATURDAY...WITH THE GFS LIFTING A BAND OF 0.65 INCH PWS
THROUGH THE FCST AREA...AND THE NAM HOLDING OFF ON THE NORTHWARD
ADVECTION OF PWS. THEY ALSO DISAGREE A BIT ON STABILITY PARAMETERS
BUT DO HAVE SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE LIS AND LOW TO MODERATE CAPES. EITHER
WAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND SATURDAY...WITH SATURDAY
POSSIBLY BEING THE WARMEST DAY IN A WHILE WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE
MID TO UPPER 90S. REA

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. LONG TERM PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A PUSHING MATCH BETWEEN TWO AIR MASSES OVER THE
GREAT BASIN...WHICH LEADS TO SOME DISCREPANCIES AND TIMING ISSUES
BETWEEN THE MODELS AS THEY EACH HANDLE THE SITUATION A LITTLE
DIFFERENTLY. IN GENERAL...A BROAD RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION TRIES TO PUSH NORTHWESTERLY TOWARD EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA...WHILE A WEAK SHORTWAVE OFF THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST
TRIES TO ADVANCE EASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN NEVADA. MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THROUGH THE WEEKEND THE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE
SOUTHEAST WILL WIN OUT...AND ULTIMATELY SPREAD MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH THROUGH AZ...APPROACHING EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA BY SUNDAY. EVEN
THOUGH THE MOISTURE APPROACHES SUNDAY...IT LOOKS AS IF THE
INSTABILITY OVER AND NEAR WHITE PINE COUNTY WILL BE TOO WEAK TO
TRIGGER ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SHOULD SEE SOME CU BUILD-UPS
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOWEVER. MONDAY THE
GFS MODEL HAS INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE OVER EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA
INCREASING ENOUGH IN THE AFTERNOON TO TRIGGER ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

THE GREATEST CHANGE IN THE MODELS FROM YESTERDAY HOWEVER...IS ON
TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS NOW SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE THAT WAS OFF THE
NORTHERN CA COAST...NOW PUSHING INLAND TO AID IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW AND INSTABILITY OVER THE CENTRAL NEVADA HIGHLANDS. AT THE SAME
TIME...EVEN MORE OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PUSHES NORTH INTO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. TUESDAY AFTERNOON OVER WHITE PINE COUNTY
GFS HAS CAPE UP TO 700 J/KG...AND LI/S AS LOW AS -2.4...WITH PW/S
NEAR 3/4 OF AN INCH. IF THIS VERIFIES COULD SEE ENOUGH OF AN
INCREASE TO BOTH INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE TO PRODUCE NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF NORTHERN NYE
COUNTY...SOUTHERN EUREKA COUNTY...AND WHITE PINE COUNTY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ECMWF MODEL HOWEVER HAS THE SHORTWAVE
WEAKENING BY TUESDAY...THUS NOT AIDING IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
THE SIZABLE INCREASE IN DYNAMICS OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.

MODELS IN AGREEMENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH WEAK SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN...AND THE MONSOON MOISTURE DRIFTING OFF TO
THE EAST. HOWEVER SHOULD SEE CLOUD BUILD-UPS OVER EAST-CENTRAL
NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE GREAT BASIN PARK REGION OF WHITE PINE COUNTY IF THE GFS
MODEL DOES VERIFY. ROOD
&&

.AVIATION...DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA
TODAY RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES...ALTHOUGH SMOKE FROM THE CALIFORNIA
WILDFIRES WILL KEEP A HAZE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY WILL SPREAD INTO EAST-CENTRAL NEVADA FOR ANOTHER
AFTERNOON OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
APPROACH ELY FROM THE SOUTH...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE NORTHERN
EXTENT OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE AROUND THE GREAT BASIN
PARK. ROOD
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...DRY WESTERLY FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AHEAD OF A WEAK
DISTURBANCE APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY IN ZONES 452...454...
455...AND 457...WITH EXPECTED COVERAGE IN THE 10 TO 15 PERCENT RANGE.
THE STORMS WILL PROBABLY BE A MIX OF WET AND DRY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN SUNDAY AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES THRU...BUT WITH COVERAGE ONLY IN THE 5 TO 10 PERCENT
RANGE. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MONDAY AHEAD OF
A STRONG TROF...AND TUESDAY WITH TROF PASSAGE.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE POOR.
REA
&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.