Tornado Warning 72, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
445 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

.DISCUSSION... GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN ISSUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS AT LEAST. THE STORM IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL THIS
MORNING SOMEWHERE IN THE VICINITY OF TIMBALIER ISLAND. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.5 AND 3 INCHES...AGREE WITH
TRENDS FROM HPC OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED VALUES NEAR 20.
WORST OF RAIN WILL BE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING...BUT WILL STILL SEE
SOME INTO AT LEAST WEDNESDAY. THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WILL IN
GENERAL BE A CONTINUATION OF PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 35

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH THIS EVENING THEN IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. INCREASING WINDS AND SEVERAL BANDS OF
CONVECTION WITH SQUALLS WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND
SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT WITH THE
WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT KMSY AND KBTR.  22
&&

.MARINE...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. HURRICANE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TODAY BUT
DIMINISH TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM EAST TO WEST LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS GUSTAV CLEARS THE COASTAL WATERS. THE
REMAINS OF GUSTAV WILL THEN STALL OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH WILL
KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.  22
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  83  72  83  73 / 100 100  90  70
BTR  83  73  84  73 / 100 100  90  70
MSY  82  77  85  77 / 100 100  90  70
GPT  84  73  86  75 /  90 100  90  70

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...POINTE COUPEE...ST.
     CHARLES...ST. HELENA...ST. JAMES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...ST. TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER
     JEFFERSON...UPPER LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST.
     BERNARD...UPPER TERREBONNE...WASHINGTON...WEST BATON
     ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     ASCENSION...ASSUMPTION...LIVINGSTON...LOWER
     JEFFERSON...LOWER LAFOURCHE...LOWER PLAQUEMINES...LOWER ST.
     BERNARD...LOWER TERREBONNE...ORLEANS...ST. CHARLES...ST.
     JAMES...ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST...ST.
     TAMMANY...TANGIPAHOA...UPPER JEFFERSON...UPPER
     LAFOURCHE...UPPER PLAQUEMINES...UPPER ST. BERNARD...AND
     UPPER TERREBONNE.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST
     FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...POINTE COUPEE...ST. HELENA...WEST
     BATON ROUGE...AND WEST FELICIANA.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AND WASHINGTON.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
     MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
     NM...AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...HANCOCK...HARRISON...JACKSON...PEARL
     RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND WILKINSON.

     TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 7 AM TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AMITE...PEARL RIVER...PIKE...WALTHALL...AND
     WILKINSON.

     HURRICANE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MONDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     HANCOCK...HARRISON...AND JACKSON.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
502 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-021100-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
502 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL MAKE LANDFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA
THIS MORNING. SIGNIFICANT STORM SURGE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN LOW
LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY NEAR AND TO THE EAST OF WHERE THE CENTER
MAKES LANDFALL. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OR WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT...WITH TROPICAL STORM
FORCE GUSTS OBSERVED FARTHER INLAND. THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF
ISOLATED TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING. WIDESPREAD VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL MAY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TODAY AND TONIGHT.
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THIS MAY PRODUCE MODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING ALONG SOME
RIVERS.

TROPICAL STORM TO HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY
WITH GUSTAV...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM AT THAT
TIME. IN ADDITION...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE...WITH
STORM TOTALS OF NEAR 20 INCHES POSSIBLE IN ISOLATED LOCATIONS.
FLOODING OF RIVERS MAY CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

THE THREAT OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
STORM SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO CONTINUE SUPPORTING HURRICANE
OPERATIONS TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
620 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

LAZ069-011230-
LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
620 AM CDT MON SEP 1 2008

...TIDE LEVEL RISING RAPIDLY AT POINTE A LA HACHE...

AT 530 AM...THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY TIDE STATION...
NORTHEAST BAY GARDENE NEAR POINT A LA HACHE...HAD RISEN NEARLY 9 FEET
SINCE LAST EVENING. HURRICANE GUSTAV HAS NOT MADE LANDFALL AND THE
TIDE LEVEL ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM SURGE MAY INCREASE WATER LEVELS
AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 FEET.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
644 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     TROPICAL STORM   BELLE CHASSE            29.85N 90.00W
09/01/2008                   PLAQUEMINES        LA   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED 69 MPH SUSTAINED WIND WITH HIGHER GUSTS.

0630 AM     HURRICANE        GRAND ISLE              29.21N 90.03W
09/01/2008                   JEFFERSON          LA   AMATEUR RADIO

            POWER OUT ON ENTIRE ISLAND. 6-8 FOOT WAVES.

0630 AM     STORM SURGE      POINTE A LA HACHE       29.58N 89.79W
09/01/2008  E9.00 FT         PLAQUEMINES        LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            RISING QUICKLY. REPORTED BY EOC.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
719 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     HEAVY RAIN       GRAND ISLE              29.21N 90.03W
09/01/2008  M14.61 INCH      JEFFERSON          LA   MESONET

            24 HOUR ACCUMULATION FROM MESOWEST HADS PLATFORM.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
751 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0715 AM     HURRICANE        GRAND ISLE              29.21N 90.03W
09/01/2008                   JEFFERSON          LA   MESONET

            MESONET OBSERVATION MEASURED ESE 105 MPH. RAINFALL
            UPDATED TO 14.76 INCHES. WATER LEVEL 4.04 FEET. PRESSURE
            977.9 MILLIBARS. BAROMETRIC V.

&&

RICKS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
830 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0826 AM     TORNADO          10 W KILN               30.42N 89.60W
09/01/2008                   HANCOCK            MS   AMATEUR RADIO

            REPORTED BY HAM RADIO OPERATOR N5WLW AT STENNIS SPACE
            CENTER MOVING NORTHWEST.

&&

PGRIGSBY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
923 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0919 AM     TORNADO          2 NW PICAYUNE           30.55N 89.70W
09/01/2008                   PEARL RIVER        MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POSSIBLE TORNADO AT HIGHWAY 43 AND INSIDE ROAD NORTH OF
            PICAYUNE. LARGE TREE UPROOTED.

&&

PGRIGSBY