Severe Thunderstorm Warning 171, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
311 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHWARD FOR THE
LAST FEW HOURS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE OCCURRING
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH THE GREATEST COVERAGE SOUTH OF LAKE
PONTCHARTRAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY SOUTHWARD THIS
EVENING AND INTO TONIGHT...BUT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE COAST
OVER NIGHT TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD AND DRIER AIR
MOVES INTO THE AREA...CONVECTION OVER LAND AREAS SHOULD BEGIN TO
SUBSIDE.

BEHIND THE FRONT...A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA UNDERNEATH A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. FOR COASTAL
AREAS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE STALLED
FRONT ON TUESDAY.

WITH THE RIDGE IN FULL CONTROL OF THE REGIONAL WEATHER...THE DRY
AIRMASS AND LIMITED CONVECTION WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ABOVE NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY. HAVE GENERALLY GONE WITH
SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. DID GO AHEAD AND
LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING ON FRIDAY SINCE THERE MAY BE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AROUND TO WEAKEN THE CAP AND ALLOW A FEW DIURNALLY FORCED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SIMILAR CONDITIONS OF SATURDAY.

A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL PUMP AMPLE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION BY SUNDAY...WHICH WILL LEAD TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...CLOUDS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT AND BECOME MORE SCATTERED. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR VSBYS
DUE TO FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR DAYBREAK AT MCB AND BTR.

&&

.MARINE...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE GULF COAST WITH
WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS THROUGH TUESDAY. BEYOND TUESDAY...GENERALLY
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  66  93  65  95 /  20  10  10  10
BTR  70  95  68  96 /  20  10  10  10
MSY  74  92  74  94 /  20  10  10  10
GPT  68  92  70  93 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

95/DM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1034 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-151545-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1034 AM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION TODAY...LEADING TO A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. THOUGH SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS UP TO 45 MPH. THE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE
THIS EVENING...WITH CONVECTION CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT OVER THE
OFFSHORE WATERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

95/DM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
243 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

LAZ058>064-067>070-142045-
LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-LOWER ST BERNARD-
ORLEANS-ST CHARLES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER JEFFERSON-
UPPER LAFOURCHE-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-
243 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AFFECT AREAS OF THE SOUTH SHORE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH AND AFFECT AREAS
OF THE SOUTH SHORE...INCLUDING THE NEW ORLEANS METRO AREA...THROUGH
AT LEAST 4 PM. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AND
PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH...AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS OF RAIN.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
302 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 13 S MANDEVILLE         30.18N 90.08W
07/14/2008  M34 MPH          GMZ530             LA   C-MAN STATION

            A WIND GUST OF 34 KNOTS...OR 39 MPH...WAS MEASURED AT MID
            LAKE ON THE CAUSEWAY BRIDGE.

&&

11

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
336 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

MSZ081-142100-
HARRISON-
336 PM CDT MON JUL 14 2008

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM AFFECTING THE BILOXI AREA...

A THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BILOXI AND SECTIONS OF GULFPORT
THROUGH AT LEAST 4 PM. THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF SOME
ROADWAYS AND LOW LYING AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

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