Severe Thunderstorm Warning 166, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
300 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

.DISCUSSION...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THERE WAS A COLD FRONT STRETCHING FROM
EASTERN ONTARIO THROUGH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI/LOUISIANA. THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW WAS STACKED OVER EASTERN ONTARIO WITH THE
TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS OUR PCWA THERE WAS ABUNDANT MOISTURE
WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES OVER 2 INCHES...LIFTED INDICES OF -6 TO
-7...AND CAPE GREATER THAN 3000 J/KG. THIS WAS LEADING TO A BAND
OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA THROUGH
COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. SOME TRAINING OF STORMS MAY ALSO LEAD TO SOME
LOCALIZED FLOODING. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AFTER
SUNSET. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH TO NEAR THE
LOUISIANA/MISSISSIPPI COAST BY TOMORROW MORNING...AND MAY DRIFT
INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DURING THE DAY AS IT WEAKENS.
HOWEVER...THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR
SOME ADDITION CONVECTION TOMORROW. AS THE FRONT WEAKENS AND THE
UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE EASTERN SEABOARD...SOME DRIER AIR WILL
FILTER INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI AND
EAST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA TUESDAY AND POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY MORNINGS. IN
ADDITION...RAIN CHANCES WILL BE VERY LOW FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. AS ONSHORE FLOW BECOMES RE-ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE AREA
ON THURSDAY THERE WILL BE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED CONVECTION IN THE AREA. THIS WILL INCREASE AS WE MOVE
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

.AVIATION...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR BTR...MSY...AND GPT...WHILE MCB IS MOSTLY DONE FOR TODAY.
BY LATE TOMORROW MORNING THERE WILL BE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
CONVECTION AT ALL FOUR TERMINALS. OUTSIDE OF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...CONDITIONS SHOULD PREDOMINANTLY BE VFR.

MARINE...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL THREATEN THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH
MONDAY AS AN EARLY SUMMER COLD FRONT APPROACHES AND POSSIBLY
DRIFTS INTO THE NORTH-CENTRAL GULF COASTAL WATERS. OTHERWISE...NO
OTHER MAJOR MARINE ISSUES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  87  65  90 /  40  20  10  10
BTR  72  89  67  91 /  40  30  10  10
MSY  74  88  71  91 /  30  40  10  10
GPT  73  88  69  89 /  40  40  10  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-301100-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
PASCAGOULA TO SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20 NM-
SW PASS MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO ATCHAFALAYA RIVER 20-60 NM OUT-AMITE-
ASCENSION-ASSUMPTION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-HANCOCK-
HARRISON-IBERVILLE-JACKSON-LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS-
LIVINGSTON-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST BERNARD-LOWER TERREBONNE-ORLEANS-PEARL RIVER-PIKE-
POINTE COUPEE-ST CHARLES-ST HELENA-ST JAMES-ST JOHN THE BAPTIST-
ST TAMMANY-TANGIPAHOA-UPPER JEFFERSON-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
UPPER PLAQUEMINES-UPPER ST BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-WALTHALL-
WASHINGTON-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
1030 AM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE.
THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...AND
HEAVY RAINFALL CAUSING LOCALIZED FLOODING.  MOTORISTS SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAREFUL NOT TO DRIVE INTO FLOODED ROADWAYS.  THE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA EARLY MONDAY. THE
BOUNDARY WILL HELP FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT BEFORE WEAKENING
AND DRIFTING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. NO SEVERE
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
LOCALIZED FLOODING MAY DEVELOP OVER LOW-LYING AREAS...ALONG DITCHES
AND CREEKS...AND ACROSS URBANIZED REGIONS. ACTIVITY SHOULD
DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

AS THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH AND WEAKENS...DRIER AIR WILL FILTER INTO
THE REGION BY TUESDAY. A FEW AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
DUE TO DIURNAL HEATING.

MOISTURE WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK. THE CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN BY FRIDAY WITH THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.  EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT AGENCIES AND FIRST RESPONDERS SHOULD BE AWARE OF THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY...AND ARE ASKED TO NOTIFY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SLIDELL IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSERVED.

LAZ038-040-050-292130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
335 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MOVING ALONG
INTERSTATE 12 IN LIVINGSTON PARISH...

AT 332 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL 11 MILES WEST OF
HAMMOND...OR ABOUT 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF SPRINGFIELD...MOVING EAST AT
25 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SPRINGFIELD BY 345 PM
  TICKFAW BY 355 PM
  HAMMOND BY 400 PM
  ROBERT BY 415 PM
  FOLSOM BY 430 PM

WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH AND PEA TO DIME SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME
SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

92/JSS

LAZ061-062-292215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
430 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MOVING ACROSS
KENNER AND METAIRIE...

AT 428 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND PEA TO MARBLE SIZE HAIL
NEAR KENNER AND METAIRIE...MOVING EAST AT 9 MPH.

THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  METAIRIE THROUGH 440 PM
  NEW ORLEANS BY 515 PM

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH AND MARBLE SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING
ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. STAY INSIDE AWAY FROM
WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
433 PM CDT SUN JUN 29 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0428 PM     HAIL             METAIRIE                30.00N 90.18W
06/29/2008  E0.25 INCH       JEFFERSON          LA   NWS EMPLOYEE

            OFF DUTY NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED HAIL SLIGHTLY LARGE THAN A
            PEA.

&&

22

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