Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
303 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM SOUTH CAROLINA...TO AROUND
MONTGOMERY ALABAMA...TO MCCOMB AND BATON ROUGE. HEALTHY CONVECTIVE
COMPLEX DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS AS WELL. CONVECTION
DOTTING THE RADAR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH COVERAGE IN THE 20-30
PERCENT RANGE. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY HAVE SNUCK INTO THE LOWER
AND MIDDLE 90S BEFORE CONVECTION DEVELOPS...WHICH DROPS READINGS
BACK DOWN TO AROUND 90.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
AS WAS THE CASE YESTERDAY...AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE FOR
AN HOUR OR SO AFTER SUNSET...SO WILL CUT OFF MAIN PRECIPITATION
AROUND 02Z. STILL SOME POSSIBILITY OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
COASTAL AND SOUTH SHORE AREAS THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT...AND
WILL CONTINUE SLIGHT POPS THERE. CURRENTLY APPEARS THAT TEXAS
COMPLEX WILL REMAIN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...BUT THIS WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THIS EVENING. AIRMASS WILL REMAIN JUICY ENOUGH TO
SUPPORT AT LEAST SOME CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS...BUT WITH
NO LARGE SCALE TRIGGERS...WILL KEEP ONLY SLIGHT POPS IN THE
FORECAST.

OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE FORECASTS HAVE BEEN REASONABLE FOR THE
LAST SEVERAL NIGHTS AND SEE NO SIGNIFICANT REASON TO CHANGE. HIGH
TEMPERATURES HAVE GENERALLY BEEN NEAR OR ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR ABOUT
THE LAST WEEK. NORMAL TREND HAS BEEN TO CLIMB FAIRLY QUICKLY...AND
PEAK OUT AROUND 18 OR 19Z BEFORE CONVECTIVE TRIGGER IS REACHED.
STORMS FORM...AND TEMPERATURES LEVEL OUT. MOST HIGHS OVER THE NEXT
THREE DAYS SHOULD GET AT LEAST TO THE LOWER 90S...WITH A FEW MID
90S IN AREAS THAT DONT SEE RAIN.
&&

.LONG TERM...
EASTERN TROF REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY OR SUNDAY BEFORE
BEGINNING TO FILL. BEST POTENTIAL FOR PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BE ON
SATURDAY. AFTER THAT...HAVE FOUND LITTLE REASON TO MAKE CHANGES TO
PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH VALUES REMAINING RATHER CLOSE TO
CLIMATOLOGY.
&&

.AVIATION...
ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AT TERMINALS THROUGH 02Z...BUT UNLESS
CONVECTION IS DIRECTLY OVER RUNWAY COMPLEX...STORMS SHOULD BE
CIRCUMNAVIGABLE. OTHERWISE...ALL SITES VFR THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.
&&

.MARINE...
NO SIGNIFICANT COASTAL ISSUES OUTSIDE OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  69  93  67  91 /  20  20  10  20
BTR  71  92  70  92 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  74  91  73  91 /  20  20  10  20
GPT  70  91  70  90 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

35/RSW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-181900-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
200 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF GULF OF
MEXICO...SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THIS EVENING. AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM WILL BE POSSIBLE...BUT NO WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL STALL OVER THE AREA AND REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH SATURDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

LAZ040-172045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
320 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MOVING NEAR
COVINGTON AND MANDEVILLE...

AT 316 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL NEAR COVINGTON...OR
ABOUT 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ABITA SPRINGS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
MANDEVILLE AT 345 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH
COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED
SMALL OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE
STORM HAS PASSED.

LAZ060-172115-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
347 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

...THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL MOVING SLOWLY
ACROSS ST. CHARLES PARISH...

AT 346 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL NEAR HAHNVILLE...NEW
SARPY...AND DESTREHAN. THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...SEEK SHELTER FROM THE WEATHER IN A STRONG
BUILDING. WINDS GUSTS 40 TO 45 MPH...PEA HAIL...VERY HEAVY RAIN...
AND DEADLY LIGHTNING ARE ALL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM. STAY
INSIDE AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE STORM HAS PASSED.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE QUICK ACTION IF A WARNING IS ISSUED. STAY TUNED
TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

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