River Flood Warning 88, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
435 AM CDT THU SEP 11 2008

.SHORT TERM...
SFC HIGH ON THE EAST COAST IS RIDGING BACK OVER THE GULF WHERE IT
FINDS IKE. AS IKE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD ON ITS
TRACK...THE GRADIENT GETS VERY TIGHT OVER THE NE AND CENTRAL GULF.
AS A RESULT...WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE WELL AWAY FROM THE
HURRICANE TO THE NE. THIS HAS PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES IN
THE CWA AND NOW ENCOMPASSES ALL COASTAL LOCATIONS FROM THE
ALA/MISS BORDER WEST TO CAMERON LA. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE TODAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. DRIVING ON OPEN ROADWAYS
AND BRIDGES WILL BE DIFFICULT AS WINDS REACH 25 TO 35 MPH IN MANY
LOCATIONS OF SE LA THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN OVER
COASTAL MISS DURING THE DAY FRIDAY.

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT THING WILL BE TROPICAL TORNADIC SPIN UPS.
THIS THREAT WILL BEGIN TO DAY AND LAST THROUGH FRIDAY. ONCE IKE
MOVES ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIE OFF AND A COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH TODAY ESPECIALLY OVER ALL COASTAL
AREAS. CEILINGS WILL ALSO LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY TONIGHT MAINLY OVER
COASTAL SECTIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ESTABLISHED FOR ALL COASTAL
WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE TODAY TO TROPICAL
STORM FORCE AND 25 TO 30 FEET. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE OVER THE WEEKEND AND A COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE AREA BY MID WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  90  76  88  76 /  30  30  50  40
BTR  90  78  89  77 /  40  30  50  40
MSY  90  81  88  80 /  60  40  60  40
GPT  90  80  87  81 /  50  40  60  40

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070.

     WIND ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM CDT FRIDAY FOR
     LAZ034-046>048.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ530-550-555-570-575.

MS...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR MSZ080>082.

GM...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR GMZ550-555-570-575.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1026 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-120330-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1026 PM CDT WED SEP 10 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

.TROPICAL HAZARDS...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WEST
OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 0 TO 60 NM...AND FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 20 TO 60 NM. THE ONSET OF
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY THURSDAY MORNING AND
CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS.

.COASTAL FLOODING...
A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOUISIANA COAST EAST OF ATCHAFALAYA BAY. LARGE SWELLS WILL BE
ADVANCING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH BUILDING
SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. BEACH EROSION AND COASTAL FLOODING
CAN BE EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE HURRICANE PROTECTION LEVEE SYSTEMS AS
TIDES INCREASE TO 2 FEET TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT AND EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
FRINGE AFFECTS FROM HURRICANE IKE WILL BE IMPACTING THE NEAR COASTAL
PARISHES OF LOUISIANA AND PARTICULARLY THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS.
TROPICAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BANDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE ONSHORE AND MAY POSE AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A GREATER THREAT FOR
WATERSPOUTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS FOR
THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE AN ISSUE ALONG
THE MISSISSIPPI AND LOUISIANA COASTS WHERE ABOVE NORMAL TIDES 2 TO
4 FEET MAY APPROACH 5 FEET ABOVE NORMAL IN SOME LOCATIONS DUE TO
THE DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW FROM HURRICANE IKE.

THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW FOR THE PERIOD
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS AND FIRST RESPONDERS NEAR COASTAL AREAS ARE
ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY COASTAL FLOODING TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SLIDELL. DEPENDING ON THE EXPANSE OF THE OUTER BANDS OF
HURRICANE IKE...A TORNADO WATCH MAY BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND COASTAL MISSISSIPPI AT SOME POINT THURSDAY
AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY FOR TROPICAL TORNADOES.

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