River Flood Warning 6, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
307 PM CST THU JAN 31 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE CENTERS OVER SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA AT 20Z. UPPER SHORTWAVE AXIS CURRENTLY NEAR THE DFW
METROPLEX. WARM FRONT NEAR MISSISSIPPI LOUISIANA STATE LINE
BETWEEN HAMMOND AND MCCOMB. LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED INTO
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND PROGRESSING
THROUGH BATON ROUGE AREA. TORNADO WATCH 30 OUT UNTIL 7 PM.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FIRST 6 HOURS. WILL CLEAR
PARISHES BEHIND CONVECTIVE LINE WITH ZONE ISSUANCE AFTER 2130Z.
AT CURRENT SPEED...MAIN CONVECTION WILL BE OUT OF THE CWA BY ABOUT
02Z. DRYING AND CLEARING WILL TRAIL LEADING EDGE OF CONVECTION BY
ABOUT 3 HOURS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AT THIS TIME DO NOT SUPPORT
WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL GO WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR FORECAST
GUIDANCE TOMORROW MORNING.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WILL BE DRY. TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ON
FRIDAY AND NEAR NORMAL TO A LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL ON SATURDAY.
GUIDANCE FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS CLOSE AND ACCEPTED.
TRENDED TOWARD WARMER MAV GUIDANCE FOR SATURDAY.

HIGH MOVES OFF TO THE EAST ON SUNDAY. MOISTURE RETURNS...AND
PRESENTS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SCATTERED CONVECTION ON
SUNDAY...AND WILL KEEP SMALL CHANCE POPS. HAVE NOTED THAT NEW 18Z
NAM RUN WOUULD KEEP SUNDAY DRY ACROSS THE AREA. SUNDAY HIGH
TEMPERATURES ABOUT 1 CATEGORY WARMER THAN SATURDAY.
&&

.LONG TERM...
SURFACE LOW KICKS OUT OF THE ROCKIES ON MONDAY...TO DRAG ANOTHER
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA ON TUESDAY. OF COURSE...TUESDAY IS MARDI
GRAS DAY IN NEW ORLEANS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL TUESDAY EVENING. THIS IS STILL 5
DAYS OUT...AND MOTHER NATURE COULD CAUSE US TO MAKE CHANGES IN THE
FORECAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MONDAY AND
TUESDAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH LITTLE OR NO
PRECIPITATION.
&&

.AVIATION...
LINE OF CONVECTION EXTENDING FROM THE KMCB AREA TO EAST OF KBTR AND
THEN SOUTHWEST INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH QUICKLY
EAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI THROUGH THE
MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
ALSO DEVELOPED IN ADVANCE OF THIS LINE. THE MAIN PART OF THIS
CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE TO THE EAST OF KBTR BY 21Z AND SHORTLY AFTER
22Z AT KMCB. THE CONVECTIVE LINE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT KMSY BETWEEN 22
AND 24Z AND KGPT BETWEEN 23 AND 01Z. CLEARING WILL OCCUR WITHIN TWO
TO FOUR HOURS AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THE LINE OF CONVECTION WITH VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING MOST OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND FRIDAY.
MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW IN ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST IN ITS WAKE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WINDS WILL REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT AT
KMSY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO EARLY FRIDAY FOR THE GULF COASTAL WATERS AND LAKES
PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS. A COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE COASTAL
WATERS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. WINDS MAY GUST UP TO GALE
FORCE THIS EVENING IN THE IMMEDIATE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. WINDS
WILL DIMINISH DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS
THE REGION. THE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH RETURN
FLOW RETURNING SUNDAY AND STRENGTHENING MONDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE
NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA TUESDAY.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  37  55  33  64 /  30   0   0  10
BTR  38  57  35  68 /  20   0   0  10
MSY  41  57  39  66 /  30   0   0  10
GPT  41  56  35  65 /  50   0   0  10

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
     NM.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI
     RIVER OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20
     TO 60 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF
     THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20
     NM.

&&

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