River Flood Warning 53, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
528 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2008

.SHORT TERM...
HURRICANE GUSTAV HAS WEAKENED TO CATEGORY THREE OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS DESPITE MOVING INTO THE VERY WARM LOOP CURRENT. DESPITE
THIS...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST STILL CALLS FOR GUSTAV TO REGAIN
STRENGTH TO A CATEGORY FOUR LATER TODAY...AND MAKE LANDFALL AS
EITHER A DANGEROUS HIGH END CATEGORY THREE OR LOW END CATEGORY
FOUR HURRICANE IN THE VICINITY OF TERREBONNE BAY MONDAY AFTERNOON.
THIS WILL CAUSE SERIOUS STORM SURGE FLOODING AS HIGH AS 18 TO 25
FEET ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTER WITH LESSER EXPECTED
AMOUNTS TO THE EAST OVER THE MISSISSIPPI COAST. T

SOME DEVIATIONS IN THE PATH...STRENGTH...AND SPEED ARE STILL
POSSIBLE...AND BECAUSE HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN ABOUT
24 HOURS OR LESS...A HURRICANE WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE
ENTIRE COAST AND PARISHES SURROUNDING LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS. A HURRICANE WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE INLAND
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA PARISHES AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 36 HOURS. VERY
HEAVY...TROPICAL DOWNPOURS IN RAIN BANDS WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 15 TO 20 INCHES
POSSIBLE. BECAUSE OF THIS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
STARTING EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WIND AND HIGH TIDE CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AS HURRICANE GUSTAV
MOVES INLAND AND WEAKENS...HOWEVER...CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN BANDS
MAY CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA AT LEAST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY DEPENDING ON THE SPEED OF MOVEMENT OF GUSTAV THROUGH
WESTERN LOUISIANA. A RETURN TO MORE TYPICAL LATE SUMMER WEATHER
SHOULD RETURN THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO ALL OF THE TERMINALS
THROUGH TOMORROW.  INCREASING WINDS AND SEVERAL BANDS OF CONVECTION
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT.

.MARINE...
HURRICANE GUSTAV WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED BY TOMORROW MORNING. GUSTAV SHOULD CLEAR THE COASTAL
WATERS BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE REMAINS OF GUSTAV WILL THEN STALL
OVER EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH WILL KEEP WINDS AND SEAS UP THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  89  74  82  74 /  40  40 100 100
BTR  90  75  82  75 /  40  40 100 100
MSY  89  79  82  77 /  50  70 100 100
GPT  89  75  83  78 /  50  70 100 100

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...HURRICANE WARNING FOR LAZ038-040-049-050-056>070.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070.

     HURRICANE WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR LAZ034>037-039-046>048.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ530-550-555-570-575.

MS...HURRICANE WARNING FOR MSZ080>082.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING
     FOR MSZ068>071-077-080>082.

     HURRICANE WIND WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR MSZ068>071-077.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR GMZ550-555-570-575.

&&

22

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