River Flood Warning 51, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
341 PM CDT SAT JUL 26 2008

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER IMPULSE MOVING DOWN THE PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI AND WESTERN ALABAMA HAS SEVERAL WAVES OF
MCS-LIKE STRUCTURES ADVANCING INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THE AREA APPEARS TO FEATURE TWO
SEPARATE AIRMASS CONDITIONS...A DEEPER MOISTURE...HIGHER
PRECIPITABLE WATER COLUMN OVER THE EASTERN HALF AND A RELATIVELY
DRIER AIRMASS WEST OF THE I-55 CORRIDOR...INDICATED BY UPPER 90S
TEMPERATURES AND UPPER 60S DEW POINTS AT THE SURFACE. HIGHEST GUST
MEASURED THUS FAR WAS 34 KTS /39 MPH/ AT HAMMOND AWOS IN THE PAST
HOUR. THE VILS HAVE BEEN BOUNCING BETWEEN 55 AND 60 KG/M2 SO NO
HAIL JUST YET. THE LOWER PARISHES HAVE BEEN UNSCATHED THUS FAR AND
MAY BE THE FOCUS OF BEST CONVECTION DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AS OUTFLOWS MOVE ACROSS THE LAKE INTO MORE PRISTINE AIR.
MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIE OFF OVER LAND BY 9 PM WHILE
MAINTAINING OVERNIGHT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ASIDE FROM SHORT TERM
CONVECTIVE CONCERNS...TYPICAL HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERHAPS LESS COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...
WILL MAINTAIN NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT AND SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL RAIN CHANCES EACH DAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACK-DOOR
FRONTAL ZONE INDICATED BY MODELS APPEARS TO STALL WELL NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA BUT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME DRAINAGE AIR TO AFFECT MIN
TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTIVE IMPACTS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON WILL BE AT KMSY...KGPT AND KPQL THROUGH 01-02Z.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL EXCEPT FOR BRIEF PERIOD MVFR
VISIBILITY IN BR/HZ AT A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN 10-15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS MAY BE WARRANTED THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING INTO THE COASTAL WATERS FROM THE NORTH. MAIN
CONCERNS WILL BE GALE FORCE GUSTS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING. SOME OF
THE STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL INTO THE NIGHT MAINLY EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. OTHERWISE...NO ISSUES OF NOTE THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  73  95  74  97 /  30  20  10  20
BTR  75  96  75  97 /  20  20  10  20
MSY  77  93  78  96 /  40  40  10  20
GPT  76  93  76  94 /  40  40  10  20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

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