Coastal Flood Statement 3, NWS New Orleans, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
434 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A MUCH QUIETER MORNING THIS MORNING COMPARED TO THE PAST TWO.
STILL SEEING A SPIRAL BAND FROM THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL LET
TORNADO WATCH RIDE FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN COUNTY/PARISHES UNTIL
EXPIRATION AT 12Z...AS WE ARE STILL SEEING BOWING SEGMENTS JUST TO
THE WEST OF THE AREA. CENTER OF CIRCULATION STILL DRIFTING INTO SW
ARKANSAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...
WILL TRIM MUCH OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THIS MORNING...CLEARING TO
SOUTH AND EAST OF MCCOMB AND BATON ROUGE...BUT WILL EXTEND REMAINING
PORTION OF WATCH UNTIL NOON TO TAKE CARE OF REMAINING BAND OF
PRECIPITATION. AFTER THAT...CONVECTION LIKELY TO SEE LESS AREAL
COVERAGE...AS AIRMASS HAS DRIED SOMEWHAT WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2.25 INCHES. COASTAL FLOOD WARNING WILL ALSO BE
TRIMMED...AS ONLY AREA CONTINUING TO SEE WATER LEVELS CONSIDERABLY
ABOVE NORMAL IS THE SOUTH AND WEST SHORES OF LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND
MAUREPAS. WILL EXTEND THIS UNTIL NOON AND ALLOW DAY SHIFT TO
CONTINUE ASSESSMENT OF FALLING WATER LEVELS.

AFTER TODAY...MAIN FORCING SHOULD BE MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...AND WILL GRADUALLY TRIM POPS INTO THE CHANCE RANGE FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS REMNANTS OF GUSTAV GET PULLED INTO MAIN
TROF OVER THE MIDDLE AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO CLOSE TO NORMAL
LEVELS. 35
&&

.LONG TERM...
AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS TO THE WEST OF CURRENT TROPICAL STORM
HANNA...BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS...DEEP MOISTURE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS FLOW OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES VERY
WEAK. WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE...FEEL AREAL
COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LOW TO MENTION FOR PERIOD SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THIS WILL AID IN ALLOWING CLEANUP ACTIVITIES FROM GUSTAV
TO MAKE CONSIDERABLE HEADWAY. A WEAK TROF MOVING THROUGH THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY MAY ALLOW ENOUGH MOISTURE
RETURN FOR A LITTLE MORE CONVECTION TO DEVELOP BY TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD RETURN TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. 35
&&

.AVIATION...
KMSY WEB SITE STATES COMMERCIAL POWER IS RESTORED AND COMMERCIAL
FLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO RESUME ON THURSDAY. ASOS OBSERVATION SHOULD
BE RESTORED TODAY ONCE CALIBRATION AND MAINTENANCE ARE COMPETED.
WEATHER AT REMAINING TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR CATEGORY CIGS THIS
MORNING IMPROVING TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...THEN BACK TO
MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING WITH LIGHTER WINDS EXPECTED. SHRA/TSRA WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS
AROUND KMCB AND KBTR TODAY. 22
&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TODAY. TIDES WILL REMAIN AS
MUCH AS 3 FEET ABOVE NORMAL OVER SOME AREAS NEAR THE WEST SHORE OF
LAKES PONTCHARTRAIN AND MAUREPAS WITH THE LAKE MAUREPAS SHORELINE
AND SURROUNDING MARSHLANDS/SWAMPS ALSO IMPACTED BY FRESH WATER
FLOODING FROM THE AMITE/TICKFAW RIVER SYSTEMS. 22
&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB  85  73  88  71 /  50  50  40  30
BTR  86  74  88  74 /  80  50  40  30
MSY  86  76  87  76 /  50  40  40  30
GPT  85  74  86  73 /  40  40  40  30

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: LIVINGSTON...ST. CHARLES...ST. JOHN THE
     BAPTIST...AND TANGIPAHOA.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     EAST BATON ROUGE...EAST FELICIANA...IBERVILLE...POINTE
     COUPEE...ST. HELENA...WEST BATON ROUGE...AND WEST
     FELICIANA.

GM...NONE.
MS...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     AMITE...AND WILKINSON.

GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

GMZ530-550-555-570-575-LAZ034>040-046>050-056>070-MSZ068>071-077-
080>082-041800-
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
TO LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER LA FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MS TO THE SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM 20 TO 60 NM-POINTE COUPEE-WEST FELICIANA-
EAST FELICIANA-ST. HELENA-TANGIPAHOA-WASHINGTON-ST. TAMMANY-
IBERVILLE-WEST BATON ROUGE-EAST BATON ROUGE-ASCENSION-LIVINGSTON-
ASSUMPTION-ST. JAMES-ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST-UPPER LAFOURCHE-
ST. CHARLES-UPPER JEFFERSON-ORLEANS-UPPER PLAQUEMINES-
UPPER ST. BERNARD-UPPER TERREBONNE-LOWER TERREBONNE-
LOWER LAFOURCHE-LOWER JEFFERSON-LOWER PLAQUEMINES-
LOWER ST. BERNARD-WILKINSON-AMITE-PIKE-WALTHALL-PEARL RIVER-
HANCOCK-HARRISON-JACKSON-
1250 PM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF COASTAL WATERS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTH MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT
THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV WILL
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. THERE IS
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR AREAS NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM
MCCOMB TO BATON ROUGE. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM
CDT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI
GENERALLY WEST OF INTERSTATE 55..EXCLUDING TANGIPAHOA PARISH AND
PIKE COUNTY...AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 10...INCLUDING IBERVILLE
AND ASCENSION PARISHES.

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF GUSTAV
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS THAT CAN LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM
CDT FOR AREAS GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM BATON ROUGE TO
MCCOMB.

A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AROUND LAKE MAUREPAS AND ON THE WESTERN
SHORE OF LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN.

RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ON SEVERAL RIVERS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA TODAY. REFER TO FLOOD STATEMENTS AND RIVER FORECASTS FOR
MORE INFORMATION ON SPECIFIC RIVERS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE FOR SEVERAL DAYS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

95/DM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
930 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

LAZ034>037-046>050-MSZ068-069-031600-
AMITE-ASCENSION-EAST BATON ROUGE-EAST FELICIANA-IBERVILLE-LIVINGSTON-
POINTE COUPEE-ST HELENA-WEST BATON ROUGE-WEST FELICIANA-WILKINSON-
930 AM CDT WED SEP 3 2008

...A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS APPROACHING BATON ROUGE AND SOUTH
MISSISSIPPI...

AT 930 AM...REGIONAL RADARS INDICATED A LARGE BAND OF SHOWERS AND A
FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS FROM JACKSON...MISSISSIPPI TO SOUTHWEST
MISSISSIPPI TO LAFAYETTE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD EAST ACROSS
SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI AND EAST CENTRAL LOUISIANA...MAINLY POINTS
AROUND AND NORTH OF BATON ROUGE. SOME AREAS...JUST NORTH AND WEST OF
BATON ROUGE AND SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...HAVE RECEIVED UP TO 10 TO 15
INCHES OF RAIN. SATURATED GROUNDS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO HANDLE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND EXCESSIVE RUNOFF WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLOODING.
RESIDENTS IN AND AROUND BATON ROUGE AND IN SOUTHWEST MISSISSIPPI WILL
LIKELY EXPERIENCE PERIODS OF RAIN THROUGH 11 PM AND FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE
INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY OR PAST POLICE BARRICADES.
RAPIDLY RISING WATER CAN ENGULF A VEHICLE AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP
THEM AWAY.  IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS IN THE WATER...ABANDON IT
IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK HIGHER GROUND.