Severe Thunderstorm Warning 7, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
539 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FILLED IN ACCORDING TO PLAN ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO CENTRAL ARKANSAS THIS
MORNING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE ENTERING THE EAST TEXAS LAKES
AREA LATE THIS MORNING.

TO RE-HASH AND ADJUST A LITTLE FROM YESTERDAY...NAM/GFS PROGS SHOW
PRECIPITABLE WATER CLIMBING TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES BY THIS AFTERNOON
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. AREA FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 1000 PLUS J/KG
SBCAPE...WITH 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 30-40 KTS. WBZ HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST TO BE AROUND 9-10 KFT. WINDS AT H3 WILL BE DIVERGENT OVER
THE AREA BETWEEN SUBTROPICAL JET MAX NOSING INTO THE NORTHWEST
GULF AND TAIL END OF POLAR JET MAX MOVING INTO NORTH LOUISIANA.
0-3 KM HELICITY VALUES ARE NOT OVERLY IMPRESSIVE...AND GENERALLY
WORSEN THROUGH THE DAY AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS. STORM MOTION
WILL GENERALLY BE EAST NORTHEAST...OR NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE
BOUNDARY INITIALLY....BUT BECOMING MORE IN LINE WITH THE FRONTAL
MOVEMENT AS IT BECOMES MORE NE-SW ORIENTED.

BASED ON THE PROGS OUTLINED ABOVE...EXPECT THAT THIS WILL PRIMARILY
BE A DECENT RAINFALL EVENT FOR THE AREA...WITH TOTALS AROUND ONE
INCH AREAWIDE WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THOUGH THE SEVERE
THREAT IS PRESENT...IT APPEARS TO BE LIMITED BY THE NEARLY MOIST
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATES SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND RELATIVELY
WEAK SHEAR. STILL...WITH THE INSTABILITY AVAILABLE AND LOW WBZ AND
FREEZING HEIGHTS...LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WIND CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. CONVECTIVE MODE WILL REMAIN PRIMARILY LINEAR...WITH INDIVIDUAL
CELLS AND/OR SMALL BOWING SEGMENTS POSSIBLE.

FRONT EXPECTED TO EXIT THE EASTERN CWA THIS EVENING...WITH A MUCH
COOLER/DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO THE AREA FOR WEDNESDAY.

RETURN FLOW WILL GET UNDERWAY BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SHIFTS OFF TO THE EAST. IN THE MEANTIME...THE NEXT
SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BE COMING ASHORE THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. AS THIS FEATURE DIGS INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TOWARD
THE FOUR CORNERS THURSDAY NIGHT...WE WILL SEE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY SAG
INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN TEXAS BY FRIDAY. AFTER THAT...ITS PROGRESS
SLOWS TO A CRAWL AS THE UPPER TROF CONTINUES TO DIG AND CLOSE OFF
AS IT BECOMES DETACHED FROM THE POLAR JET.

THE TIMING OF FEATURES AT THIS POINT BECOMES PROBLEMATIC...WITH
THE GLOBAL MODELS DIFFERING ABOUT WHEN THE UPPER LOW...AND THUS
THE SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...WILL EVENTUALLY KICK EASTWARD.
THUS...I SEE LITTLE USE IN GOING INTO A LOT OF DETAIL BEYOND
THIS POINT GIVEN THIS UNCERTAINTY...BUT SUFFICE IT TO SAY THAT A
VERY RAINY...AND POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND APPEARS ON TAP.

&&

.AVIATION...FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL AFFECT KAEX 16-18Z...KBPT
17-19Z...KLCH 18-20Z...AND KLFT AND KARA 19-21Z. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT...ALONG WITH NORTHWEST
WINDS THAT WILL GUST FROM 20 TO 30KT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME
OF THE STORMS COULD BE SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGHER WIND
GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL
WATERS THIS EVENING. HAVE HOISTED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR
STARTING THIS EVENING AS WINDS INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 KNOTS WITH
HIGHER GUSTS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...AND SEAS BUILD TO 6 TO 8
FEET OVER THE 20 TO 60 NM ZONES. IRONICALLY...TODAY IS THE FIRST
DAY FOR THIS OFFICE TO START ISSUING THE NEW MWW PRODUCT ON AN
EXPERIMENTAL BASIS. I GUESS I LUCKED OUT AND WILL BE THE FIRST
GUINEA PIG. WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE ON WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. A POTENT STORM SYSTEM WILL
AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  70  40  59  39 /  90  20   0   0
KBPT  70  39  60  42 /  90  10   0   0
KAEX  68  35  54  32 / 100  10   0   0
KLFT  72  40  55  36 /  90  30   0   0

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM CST
     WEDNESDAY FOR GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475.

&&

PUBLIC/MARINE...13
AVIATION...05

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
601 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-131215-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
601 AM CST TUE FEB 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE
ENTIRE OUTLOOK AREA.

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT HAS DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT
EARLY THIS MORNING FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH CENTRAL ARKANSAS
WILL PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH AS THE FRONT DOES...ENTERING THE TEXAS
LAKES AREA BY LATE MORNING. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT
WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN
ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC WIND PROFILE WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL
BE THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM ANY STORM THAT CAN BECOME SEVERE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A WET AND POTENTIALLY STORMY WEEKEND IS ON TAP FOR THE AREA AS A
POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. AT THIS TIME...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
CATEGORIZE A SEVERE WEATHER THREAT SINCE THE TIMING OF THESE
FEATURES REMAINS UNCERTAIN. STAY TUNED TO LATER OUTLOOKS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

13