Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
958 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008

.UPDATE...COLD FRONT POSITIONED FROM NEAR TEXARKANA TO THE DALLAS
AREA AND FURTHER SOUTHWEST. MAIN CONVECTION THUS FAR THIS EVENING
HAS BEEN OVER NORTHEAST TEXAS...SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND THROUGH
ARKANSAS. OVERALL HAVE SEEN A GENERALLY WEAKENING OF THUNDERSTORMS
AND EXPECTING THIS TREND TO CONTINUE. CURRENT LOW END POPS LOOK
GOOD WITH FROPA. NO UPDATE COMING.

&&

MARCOTTE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 306 PM CDT SAT MAY 10 2008/

SHORT TERM...
MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST PROBLEM IS HOW MUCH PRECIP WILL BE INVOLVED
WITH COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TONIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING...AND WILL ANY
STORMS BE SEVERE.

SPECIAL 18Z SOUNDING AT LCH SHOWS SIGNIFICANT CAP STILL IN PLACE
BETWEEN 925 AND 650 MB. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW THIS CAP TO HOLD THROUGH
MOST OF TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THIS...STILL DOWNPLAYING ANY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER...WILL GO WITH 30 PERCENT POPS LATE...BUT CONFIDENCE IN
THIS IS STILL LOW.

BEHIND THIS COLD FRONT...DRY WEATHER IS THE CALL FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE CLOSER TO NEAR NORMAL THAN ANY
RECORD HIGHS THAT HAVE BEEN SEEN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

LONG TERM...
LOOKING THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK...BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE DURING THE NEXT COLD FRONT PASSAGE ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A
RETURNING WARM FRONT COULD PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY. BECAUSE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS
LOW RIGHT NOW...HAVE KEPT RAIN CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND
RAIN CHANCES.

AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CU BETWEEN 3K AND 5K FEET SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. DURING THE
EVENING HOURS CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TO MVFR RANGE
ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF MVFR VISIBILITIES FROM PATCHY FOG.

DURING THE OVERNIGHT...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND EXIT BY DAYBREAK ON SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL LOUISIANA. TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS...WILL MAKE MENTION OF VCSH AT TAF SITES AROUND
06Z...WITH A TEMPO GROUP FOR SHOWERS AT KAEX FROM 06Z TO 10Z AND
PROB30 GROUP BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z AT REMAINING TAF SITES.

SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR OUT EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO
DEVELOP.

RUA

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  69  83  55  82 /  30  10  10  10
KBPT  69  84  55  83 /  30  10  10  10
KAEX  67  80  50  84 /  30  10  10  10
KLFT  71  84  55  83 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
409 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-120915-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
409 AM CDT SUN MAY 11 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE GULF BEFORE THE NOON
HOUR WITH SHOWERS EXITING OFF TO THE EAST. COLDER/DRIER AIR FOR
TODAY AND TOMORROW. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE
FORECAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.