Severe Thunderstorm Warning 57, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
351 PM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE...SITUATED JUST EAST OF THE MOUTH OF
THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...RIDGES SOUTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.
THIS SYSTEM WILL DRIFT EAST AND STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

FURTHER-UP...THE PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM CORES THROUGH
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA...CURVING CLOCKWISE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS AND
INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THE JETSTREAM AND ASSOCIATED
UNDULATIONS WILL MOVE LITTLE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
FOR TONIGHT...THE PRIMARY FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE FOG...MAINLY ITS
INTENSITY. THE GFS COMPUTES A RAPID STABILIZATION OF THE NOCTURNAL
BOUNDARY LAYER AFTER MIDNIGHT...THE CONSEQUENCE OF THE ADVECTIVE
INCREASE IN WARM MOIST AIR JUST ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

WITH THE RELAXATION OF THE SURFACE WIND...AND SURFACE MOISTURE
POOLING...WIDESPREAD STRATUS WILL RETURN. FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
DENSE FOG SEEMS LESS LIKELY DUE TO ONGOING SURFACE HEAT FLUXES AND
ARRESTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. HOWEVER...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL
BE IN EFFECT FOR THE SHELF WATERS.

OTHERWISE...THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEE DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR THE SHELF WATERS. OTHERWISE WINDS AND
WAVE WILL INCREASE ON THURSDAY...AS PRESSURES FALL ACROSS TEXAS.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF SEA FOG WILL SPREAD INTO THE COASTAL MARSHES AFTER MIDNIGHT
...AND MAY REACH THE I-10 CORRIDOR IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. PATCHY
FOG IS POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THE FOG WILL LIFT TO A LOW GREY CLOUD
LAYER AROUND MIDMORNING.

&&

.OUTLOOK...
THE GFS DEPICTS A CANADIAN FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY EVENING. THE
CONFIDENCE LEVEL IS LOW FOR THIS LATE APRIL EVENT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  68  85  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
KBPT  69  85  67  82 /  10  10  10  10
KAEX  65  87  64  86 /  10  10  10  10
KLFT  67  85  67  83 /  10  10  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20
     NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA
     OUT 20 NM...AND COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER
     TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
355 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-230900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
355 AM CDT TUE APR 22 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

EACH AFTERNOON A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP...BUT NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

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