Severe Thunderstorm Warning 47, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
342 PM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
A FADING COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...COMING TO REST OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO...ALONG A LINE
FROM CORPUS CHRISTI TO MONTGOMERY ALABAMA BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

INITIAL PRESSURE FALLS ACROSS TEXAS WILL INDUCE THE STATIONARY
FRONT TO RETURN NORTH AS A WARM FRONT...MOVING INLAND WEDNESDAY
EVENING AND WASHING OUT.

SUBSEQUENT PRESSURE RISES ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE WILL PUSH A
STEEPLY-INCLINED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE WESTERN UPPER GULF COAST
STATES BY FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE COLD FRONT POSITION AROUND MIDAFTERNOON EXTENDS ALONG A LINE
FROM TUPELO THROUGH HUNTSVILLE TEXAS...MOVING SOUTH AND EAST.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FIRING UP ALONG THE LOUISIANA AND
MISSISSIPPI SEGMENT OF THE FRONT.

THIS COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN UPON ENTERING THE FORECAST
AREA. THE HIGHEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...WHERE THE FRONTAL SURFACE IS MORE STEEPLY
INCLINED.

A COOLER DRIER AIR MASS WILL SLOWLY MOVE IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING
FRONT. DESPITE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...THE NOCTURNAL TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RUNNING ABOUT 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...DUE MAINLY TO THE
MITIGATING EFFECTS OF MECHANICAL STIRRING AND SURFACE FLUXES OFF A
WARM GROUND. ALSO...A POST-FRONTAL STRATUS DECK WILL BE IN PLACE.

FOR TOMORROW...RAIN CHANCES WILL REMAIN SLIGHT AS A STABLE POST
FRONTAL AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. THE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RUNNING ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.MARINE...
SEA FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AS RETURNING MARITIME SUBTROPICAL AIR (WITH DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S)...SLIDES OVER RELATIVELY COOL SHELF WATERS (SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S). FRESH SOUTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP
THE ANY FOG PATCHY AT BEST.

&&

.AVIATION...
INCOMING POST-FRONTAL STRATUS WILL LOWER CEILINGS INTO THE IFR
CATEGORY BY EARLY MORNING...RISING TO THE MVFR CATEGORY BY MIDMORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  63  80  66  81 /  20  20  10  10
KBPT  63  77  68  81 /  20  10  10  10
KAEX  60  78  63  84 /  20  20  10  10
KLFT  65  80  66  83 /  30  20  10  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&
TRARES

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
532 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-021045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
532 AM CDT TUE APR 1 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE TO CAUSE
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. SOME STORMS COULD POTENTIALLY
REACH SEVERE LEVELS WITH THE MAIN THREATS BEING LARGE HAIL AND
GUSTY WINDS. ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL AFFECT THE AREA FROM FRIDAY
INTO EARLY SATURDAY...WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES ACROSS THE
REGION BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THE
STORMS ALONG THIS FRONT MAY BE STRONG. BEHIND THE FRONT...DRIER
AND COOLER WEATHER WILL BRING TEMPS BACK DOWN CLOSER TO AVERAGE
FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED TODAY.

SHAMBURGER