Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
339 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

.DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS THE WEAK FRONT STILL
SLOWLY DROPPING SOUTH ACROSS THE NRN 1/2 OF THE FORECAST AREA.
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW MAIN CONVECTION HAS AFTERNOON HAS CONGLOMERATED
INTO A CONVECTIVE COMPLEX OVER THE NEAR SHORE WATERS FROM SABINE
PASS TO OFF ATCHAFALAYA BAY AND PUSHING SWD. AS THIS CONVECTION
PASSED OVER LOWER ACADIANA...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WERE THE RULE
WITH A REPORT OF A PROBABLY TORNADO BEING RECEIVED FROM NEW
IBERIA. MEANWHILE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE TO POP UP
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA AS WE GET INTO MAX HEATING HOURS. EXPECT
THIS ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE DYING DOWN. HAVE
KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE FORECAST OVERNIGHT OVER MAINLY THE SRN
ZONES WHERE THE FRONT ITSELF COULD PROVIDE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS FOR
SHOWERS OR STORMS TO DEVELOP.

BY SATURDAY SHORT-RANGE MODELS AGREE ON BRINGING SOME DRIER AIR
BEHIND THE FRONT INTO THE NERN PART OF THE AREA WHILE DEEPEST
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM LOWER ACADIANA ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR TO INLAND SE TX. THUS HAVE TAPERED POPS FROM 10 PERCENT
ACROSS THE NERN ZONES TO 30 PERCENT WITHIN THE ZONE OF HIGHER
MOISTURE. FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO LIFT BACK NORTH BY SUNDAY WHILE
STRONG VORT MAX IS PROGGED TO DROP MAINLY TO OUR EAST AROUND THE
BASE OF THE ERN CONUS TROF. AGAIN HIGHEST POPS OVER THE ERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA.

BEYOND THEN MODELS HAVE DIFFERING SOLUTIONS ON SHORTWAVES ALOFT.
REGARDLESS ENOUGH MOISTURE/INSTABILITY PROGGED TO KEEP AT LEAST
SMALL POPS RUNNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST. AS USUAL
FOR SUMMERTIME BEST CHANCES WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION...OTHER THAN TEMPO GROUPS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE SUNDAY AND LINGER INTO THE EARLY
PART OF THE WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE SRN PLAINS AND
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ERN GULF. SCA CONDITIONS LOOK PROBABLE
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  93  76  92  77 /  30  30  20  20  20
KBPT  74  93  75  92  77 /  30  30  20  20  20
KAEX  68  94  74  92  74 /  20  10  10  30  30
KLFT  72  92  75  92  75 /  20  20  10  30  30

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

25

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-091115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
435 AM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE DOWN FROM THE RED RIVER BASIN AND STALL
ACROSS UPPER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND CENTRAL LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING HOURS.

DUE TO HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE ON THE STRONG SIDE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH...AND FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL HANG AROUND THROUGH SATURDAY WITH A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

RUA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
232 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

LAZ054-082000-
ST. MARY LA-
232 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR EASTERN ST. MARY PARISH UNTIL 300
PM CDT...

AT 231 PM CDT...AN AREA OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WAS INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
PATTERSON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 28 MPH.

* THESE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  MORGAN CITY BY 245 PM CDT
  AMELIA BY 250 PM CDT
  MOUTH OF THE ATCHAFALAYA RIVER BY 300 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH...AND
FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION
CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING
BE ISSUED.

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
259 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     WATER SPOUT      22 SSE PECAN ISLAND     29.37N 92.27W
08/08/2008                   GMZ452             LA   PUBLIC

            PLATFORM IN VERMILION BLOCK 78 REPORTS 2 LARGE
            WATERSPOUTS 10 NE.

&&

MOGGED

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
311 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0110 PM     TORNADO          1 SE NEW IBERIA         29.99N 91.81W
08/08/2008                   IBERIA             LA   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            *** 1 INJ *** SEVERAL REPORTS AND SIGHTINGS FROM THE
            PUBLIC...LAW ENFORCEMENT...AND MEDIA OF A TORNADO
            TOUCHING DOWN NEAR INTERSECTION OF ST PETER AND LEWIS
            STREETS IN NEW IBERIA. 10 CARS HAD WINDOWS BROKEN OUT IN
            WINN DIXIE PARKING LOT. FENCES BLOWN DOWN IN AREA. ROOF
            OF A FUNERAL HOME ON JEFFERSON TERRACE BLVD WAS BLOWN OFF
            WITH ONE MINOR INJURY OCCURRING INSIDE.

&&

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
402 PM CDT FRI AUG 08 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0349 PM     WATER SPOUT      1 S JOHNSON BAYOU       29.76N 93.66W
08/08/2008                   GMZ450             LA   PUBLIC

            REPORTED BY PLATFORM IN WEST CAMERON BLOCK 17. WATERSPOUT
            WAS 2 NE OF PLATFORM AND 1 S OF JOHNSON BAYOU.

&&

MOGGED

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
406 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

TXZ215-082130-
JEFFERSON TX-
406 PM CDT FRI AUG 8 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 430
PM CDT...

AT 403 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR 5 MILES WEST OF SABINE PASS...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 13 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  SEA RIM STATE PARK BY 430 PM CDT

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE
LIKELY WITH THIS STORM. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER
ON AREA ROADWAYS...ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE
PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

SHAMBURGER

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