Severe Thunderstorm Warning 115, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
352 PM CDT FRI JUN 20 2008

.SYNOPSIS...
AREA RADARS THIS AFTERNOON SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM JACKSON MS TOWARD S CENT AND SW LA
THEN SW ALONG THE TX COASTLINE. THIS ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE INTERACTING WITH AN EASTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY THAT ORIGINATED FROM AN MCS EARLY THIS MORNING OVER CENT
TX AS WELL AS A NORTHWARD MOVING SEABREEZE.

THIS ACTIVITY HAS HELPED TO KEEP AFTN TEMPERATURES IN CHECK...WITH
MAXIMUMS SO FAR THIS AFTN NEAR 90. RAIN COOLED AIR HAS LOWERED
TEMPS AT KBPT AND KLFT INTO THE UPPER 70S AT 20Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
UPPER AIR PATTERN TO REMAIN FAIRLY STATIONARY THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT BETWEEN A RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE ERN US. SCATTERED CONVECTION THIS
EVENING WILL DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...THEN
EXPECTED TO FIRE UP AGAIN TOMORROW AFTN.

TEMPERATURES AGAIN TOMORROW EXPECTED TO REACH LOWER 90S...BEFORE CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS HELP COOL SOME LOCATIONS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...
EASTERN TROUGH TO DEEPEN A BIT ON SUNDAY AND MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT THAT THIS WILL PUSH A WEAK FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA
THEN STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO
REDUCE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND.

UPPER TROUGH WILL THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AS THE WORK WEEK
BEGINS...WITH UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE ZONAL. WEAK RIDGING TO
DEVELOP MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC...WHICH
WILL LIMIT RAIN CHANCES. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN REACH MID
90S ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE SUNSHINE AND FEWER CLOUDS TO KEEP
TEMPS DOWN. RAIN CHANCES BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN BY THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH INCREASING MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES...NOTED IN THE GFS...TRAVERSE THE AREA. WENT NEAR
CLIMO FOR LOWS AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO FOR HIGHS.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET. ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO OCCUR OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO AT KAEX AND KLCH. BUT WITH THE SCATTERED NATURE
OF THE STORMS AND THE VARIOUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IN THE
AREA...CANNOT RULE OUT STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR ANY TAF SITES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THINGS EXPECTED TO SETTLE DOWN BY 02Z WITH
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVERNIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT WINDS AND LOW SEAS
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS. SOME SCATTERED NOCTURNAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS. A WEAK FRONT WILL STALL OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
SUNDAY...THEN RETURN NORTH BY MONDAY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW EXPECTED
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  92  70  92 /  40  30  30  20
KBPT  71  91  71  93 /  40  30  30  20
KAEX  72  92  69  93 /  50  40  20  20
KLFT  73  91  71  91 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&