Severe Thunderstorm Warning 103, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
324 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

.SYNOPSIS...MCS MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH EAST TEXAS INTO A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESULT IN A CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER INTERIOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
LOUISIANA EARLY THIS EVENING. ELSEWHERE, CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
AROUND 91 DEGREES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REACHED RESULTING IN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME PULSING TO SEVERE LEVELS AHEAD OF THIS MCS
THIS AFTERNOON. TSTMS SHOULD BE ON THE WANE BY 9 PM WITH LOSS OF
DAYTIME HEATING, HOWEVER MCS COULD PASS TO THE WEST OF THE AREA
MOVIING THRU THE THETA RIDGE.

WEAK RIDGING WILL NOT PROVIDE SUFFICIENT INHIBITION TO SUPPRESS A
REPEAT OF LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...ADDED POPS TO GUIDANCE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THETA
RIDGING AT H8 AND LITTLE CHANGE IN THE VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS.

.LONG TERM...ACTIVE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING PATTERN OF
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A SLIGHT
INCREASE IN THE LOW LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK SHOULD RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION...VCTS WITH UPDATED TAFS FOR MVFR CIGS WITH IFR VIS IN
TSTMS WITH HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTS TO 30KTS UNTIL 02Z FOR BPT AND
LCH TERMINALS.

&&

.MARINE...LIGHT WINDS AND FAIR SEAS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR TSTMS
MAINLY AT NIGHT OVER NEARSHORE WATERS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF NIGHTS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  73  94  73  91 /  20  40   0  10
KBPT  73  92  76  93 /  20  40   0  10
KAEX  71  90  71  93 /  10  40   0  30
KLFT  73  95  74  91 /  10  40   0  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

JS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
420 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-180930-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
420 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG
A SEABREEZE BOUNDARY LATER TODAY. ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
MAY BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING FREQUENT LIGHTNING...TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITH AMOUNTS UP TO 1 INCH AN HOUR...AND WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH. AT
THIS TIME...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1154 AM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE LAKE CHARLES      30.22N 93.15W
06/16/2008                   CALCASIEU          LA   PUBLIC

            HANGER AND ROOF DAMAGE REPORTED AT CHENAULT AIRPARK.

&&

BRAZZELL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

LAZ054-172030-
ST. MARY LA-
254 PM CDT TUE JUN 17 2008

..SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ST. MARY PARISH UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

AT 253 PM CDT...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM 5 MILES WEST OF FRANKLIN
TO CENTERVILLE...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR...
  CENTERVILLE BY 315 PM CDT

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS STORM.
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON AREA ROADWAYS...
ESPECIALLY THOSE IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. RESIDENTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO
MONITOR THE SITUATION CLOSELY AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE THE PROPER
ACTIONS SHOULD A WARNING BE ISSUED.

24

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