River Flood Warning 62, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
511 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS
COAST...
...POTENTIALLY DEVASTATING STORM SURGE EXPECTED...

.DISCUSSION...

HURRICANE IKE CONTINUES MOVING TOWARDS THE TEXAS COAST THIS
MORNING WITH THE CLOUD SHIELD OF THE HURRICANE COVERING THE ENTIRE
GULF OF MEXICO. IKE CONTINUES TO BE A VERY LARGE HURRICANE WITH
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OUTWARD UP TO 275 MILES FROM
THE CENTER. THIS WINDS ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE COASTAL WATERS
AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA DURING THE MORNING HOURS. BASED ON LATEST
WIND RADII HAVE EXPANDED HURRICANE WIND WARNING INTO THE LAKES
REGION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND BEAUREGARD PARISH...WITH TROPICAL
STORM WIND WARNING REMAINING IN PLACE. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA BY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE HURRICANE WIND WARNING AREAS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPC HAS PLACED PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH-CENTRAL LOUISIANA IN A
TORNADO WATCH THROUGH 1 PM. OUTER RAIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH IKE
ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...AND TORNADOES WILL
BECOME INCREASINGLY LIKELY OVER THE WATCH AREA AS THE MORNING
WEARS ON. EXPECTED A TORNADO THREAT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA BY THIS
AFTERNOON.

SLOSH MODEL CONTINUES TO PAINT A FRIGHTENING STORM SURGE
SCENARIO FOR THE SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA COASTAL
AREAS WITH UP TO A 20 FOOT STORM SURGE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AND POTENTIALLY HIGHER LEVELS AROUND
SABINE LAKE. THESE UNUSUALLY HIGH VALUES FOR A CATEGORY 2
HURRICANE ARE DUE TO THE LARGE WINDFIELD ASSOCIATED WITH IKE. WE
CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH THE EXTREME DANGER OF REMAINING ANYWHERE NEAR
THE COASTAL LAKES...BAYS...AND COAST DURING THIS HURRICANE.

&&

.AVIATION...

GUSTY WINDS ALREADY BEGINNING TO AFFECT ALL TERMINALS AS HURRICANE
IKE MOVES CLOSER TO THE REGION. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING
WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT TAF SITES BY THIS
AFTERNOON. IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
EXTREME TURBULENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER MUCH OF THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH BUOY 42035 REPORTING GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS AND
SEAS OF 12 FEET. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE FURTHER WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER THE GULF WATERS LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SEAS COULD REACH UP TO 35 FEET IN THE OUTER COASTAL
WATERS. ALL CRAFT SHOULD OBVIOUSLY REMAIN IN PORT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  79  82  77  85 /  70 100 100  70  60
KBPT  87  80  82  78  85 /  70 100 100  70  60
KAEX  86  77  84  76  86 /  50 100 100  70  60
KLFT  85  78  83  76  87 /  50 100 100  50  60

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...EVANGELINE...
     JEFFERSON DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...
     ST. LANDRY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERNON.

     FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     CALCASIEU...CAMERON...EVANGELINE...IBERIA...JEFFERSON
     DAVIS...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...RAPIDES...ST.
     LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...VERMILION...VERNON.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: BEAUREGARD...CALCASIEU.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: CAMERON...IBERIA...
     ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...JEFFERSON...NEWTON...ORANGE...
     TYLER.

     HURRICANE WIND WARNING UNTIL 3 PM CDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: HARDIN...JASPER...NEWTON...ORANGE...TYLER.

     HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: JEFFERSON.

GM...HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM
     CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS
     FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL
     CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...
     WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
     LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

SHAMBURGER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-131115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
609 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HURRICANE IKE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TODAY AND IS EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR GALVESTON TONIGHT.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 MPH OR HIGHER ARE EXPECTED TO
SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA BY
THIS AFTERNOON. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OF 75 MPH OR HIGHER ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST
LOUISIANA ALONG AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM DERIDDER TO LAKE CHARLES
TO GRAND CHENIER LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

MAJOR STORM SURGE FLOODING WILL BE SIGNIFICANT TO DEVASTATING IN
MANY AREAS...WITH A 20 TO 25 FOOT STORM SURGE EXPECTED ALONG THE
JEFFERSON COUNTY COAST AND AROUND SABINE LAKE...AND SLIGHTLY
LESSER VALUES ALONG THE CAMERON PARISH COAST AND AROUND VERMILION
BAY.

TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS ALL AREAS TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. INLAND FLOODING WILL ALSO BE LIKELY WHERE ANY PERSISTENT
RAIN BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

HURRICANE IKE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION ON
SATURDAY...WITH RAIN CHANCES DIMINISHING FROM SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY INTO TOMORROW.

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
517 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 AM     STORM SURGE      SABINE PASS             29.73N 93.89W
09/12/2008  E4.54 FT         JEFFERSON          TX   COAST GUARD

            STORM SURGE REPORTED GOING OVER DOCKS AT SABINE PASS
            BEHIND GOAT ISLAND ON THE WEST SIDE. SABINE PASS NOS TIDE
            GAGE MEASURED 4.54 FEET TIDE LEVEL.

&&

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
520 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0517 AM     STORM SURGE      14 SE BURNS POINT       29.45N 91.34W
09/12/2008  M4.90 FT         GMZ455             LA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AMERADA PASS NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED 4.90 FOOT TIDE LEVEL.

&&

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
525 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0525 AM     STORM SURGE      CAMERON                 29.80N 93.30W
09/12/2008  E4.00 FT         CAMERON            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAMERON PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 4 FEET OF WATER
            COVERING ROAD IN FRONT OF THE CAMERON COURTHOUSE.

&&

SHAMBURGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
620 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0511 AM     STORM SURGE      SABINE PASS             29.73N 93.89W
09/12/2008  E4.54 FT         JEFFERSON          TX   COAST GUARD

            STORM SURGE REPORTED GOING OVER DOCKS AT SABINE PASS
            BEHIND GOAT ISLAND ON THE WEST SIDE. SABINE PASS NOS TIDE
            GAGE MEASURED 4.54 FEET TIDE LEVEL.

0515 AM     STORM SURGE      1 S CAMERON             29.78N 93.30W
09/12/2008  M5.46 FT         CAMERON            LA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            CAMERON NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED 5.46 FEET TIDE LEVEL.

0517 AM     STORM SURGE      14 SE BURNS POINT       29.45N 91.34W
09/12/2008  M4.90 FT         GMZ455             LA   OFFICIAL NWS OBS

            AMERADA PASS NOS TIDE GAGE MEASURED 4.90 FOOT TIDE LEVEL.

0525 AM     STORM SURGE      CAMERON                 29.80N 93.30W
09/12/2008  E4.00 FT         CAMERON            LA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            CAMERON PARISH EMERGENCY MANAGER REPORTS 4 FEET OF WATER
            COVERING ROAD IN FRONT OF THE CAMERON COURTHOUSE.

&&

SHAMBURGER

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