Flash Flood Warning 14, NWS Lake Charles, LA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
959 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

.UPDATE...

HAVE ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
LOUISIANA DUE TO THE PERSISTENT RAINBANDS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
GUSTAV MOVING ACROSS THE CWA. HAVE RAISED POPS TO 100 PERCENT OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT.  HEAVIEST RAIN WILL
UNFORTUNATELY BE ACROSS THE HARD HIT AREAS BETWEEN LAFAYETTE AND
MORGAN CITY WHERE FLASH FLOODING IS LIKELY. HAVE ALSO SEEN A FEW
STORMS WITH MESOCYCLONES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED
OUT TODAY OVER MAINLY THE FAR EASTERN CWA. ALTHOUGH WINDS REMAIN
STRONG OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...TIDES CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE AROUND
VERMILION BAY AND WILL LET THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPS BUT REST OF FORECAST ON
TRACK.

SHAMBURGER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 706 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008/

UPDATE...THE WIND ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL LOUISIANA HAS EXPIRED.
UPDATED ZONES TO FOLLOW.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 518 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008/

SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL STORM GUSTAV WHICH WAS OVER WESTERN PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL LOUISIANA AROUND MIDNIGHT HAS MOVED INTO NORTHERN
LOUISIANA AND HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. IN THE
WAKE OF THIS STORM, A SOUPY TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS WITH
CONVERGING WINDS IN THE LOW LEVELS AND A GOOD MOIST FETCH OUT OF
THE GULF. THE TROPICS REMAIN VERY ACTIVE. A WARY EYE IS CAST OUT
IN THE ATLANTIC WHERE IKE APPEARS TO BE MAKING A WESTERLY BEELINE
FOR THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. THE EURO WANTS TO TAKE IKE INTO THE GULF
10 DAYS OUT. WELL BE WATCHING HPC AND TPC FOR ONGOING ADVISORIES
ON IKE. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC RIDING INTO THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF LOOKS TO BE A PLAYER. STAY TUNED.

DISCUSSION...WILL UPDATE AGAIN AS WE EXPECT THE WINDS TO RELAX
OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA BELOW WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA AROUND DAYBREAK.
ALTHOUGH ADDITIONAL RAIN IS INBOUND INTO CENTRAL LOUISIANA, THE
RAIN LOOKS SUFFICIENTLY LIGHT TO ALLOW THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO EXPIRE.
A SHORT TERM PROBLEM AREA IS ACADIANA WHERE TROPICAL SHOWERS ARE
IN TRAIN ON A FEEDER BAND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF. THIS AREA MAY
SOON REACH FLOOD WARNING CRITERIA. GFS IS VERIFYING WELL ON GUSTAV
AT THIS TIME.

AVIATION...LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING WILL BRING MVFR CIGS WITH
BANDED SHOWERS AND A FEW TSTMS. GUSTY SURFACE WINDS WITH THE
SHOWERS OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST.

MARINE...CHURNING SEAS IN THE WAKE OF GUSTAV WILL BE SLOW TO
SUBSIDE ALONG WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS. EXTENDED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  85  80  88  80  83 /  60  50  50  30  10
KBPT  86  79  89  82  86 /  60  50  40  20  10
KAEX  80  75  82  75  80 / 100  70  60  40  20
KLFT  84  80  83  78  82 / 100  50  60  40  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ACADIA...ALLEN...AVOYELLES...BEAUREGARD...
     EVANGELINE...IBERIA...LAFAYETTE...LOWER ST. MARTIN...
     RAPIDES...ST. LANDRY...ST. MARY...UPPER ST. MARTIN...
     VERMILION...VERNON.

     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CDT TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: IBERIA...ST. MARY...VERMILION.

TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM CDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX
     OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO
     CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM...COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER
     ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO
     CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM
     LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA EXTENDING
     FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
605 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

GMZ450-452-455-470-472-475-LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-
201-215-216-031115-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY TO CAMERON, LA OUT 20 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY,
LA OUT 20 NM-
WATERS FROM CAMERON, LA TO HIGH ISLAND, TX EXTENDING FROM 20 NM
TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA TO CAMERON, LA EXTENDING FROM
20 NM TO 60 NM-
WATERS FROM LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER TO INTRACOASTAL CITY, LA
EXTENDING FROM 20 NM TO 60 NM-VERNON-RAPIDES-AVOYELLES-BEAUREGARD-
ALLEN-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-CALCASIEU-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-
LAFAYETTE-UPPER ST. MARTIN-CAMERON-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-
LOWER ST. MARTIN-TYLER-JASPER-NEWTON-HARDIN-JEFFERSON-ORANGE-
605 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWEST
GULF OF MEXICO...CENTRAL LOUISIANA...SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...WEST CENTRAL LOUISIANA AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THE COASTAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN DOWNGRADED TO A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE PARISHES AROUND VERMILION BAY WHERE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
ARE DIMINISHING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IS POSSIBLE
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS IN TRAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WHAT IS NOW
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV OVER NORTHERN LOUISIANA. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED FOR STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND SEAS
GREATER THAN 6 FEET. A WIND ADVISORY OVER CENTRAL LOUISIANA WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AROUND DAYBREAK AS THE EFFECTS OF GUSTAV
CONTINUE TO FADE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS STRONG
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AND HIGH SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS CAN STAND DOWN. SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME.

SWEENEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
746 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

LAZ029-032-033-042>045-052>055-022130-
AVOYELLES-EVANGELINE-ST. LANDRY-JEFFERSON DAVIS-ACADIA-LAFAYETTE-
UPPER ST. MARTIN-VERMILION-IBERIA-ST. MARY-LOWER ST. MARTIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MARKSVILLE...VILLE PLATTE...OPELOUSAS...
JENNINGS...CROWLEY...LAFAYETTE...ST. MARTINVILLE...ABBEVILLE...
NEW IBERIA...MORGAN CITY
746 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...FUNNEL CLOUDS POSSIBLE TODAY...

SPIRAL RAINBANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION GUSTAV WILL
PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL LOUIAIANA. EMBEDDED
WITHIN THESE RAINBANDS ARE ROTATING STORMS...AND THE CONSEQUENT
FUNNEL CLOUDS.

THESE RAINBANDS WILL SLOWLY MAKE THEIR WAY WESTWARD TODAY.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER
UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1021 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

LAZ033-044-045-052-053-021715-
ST. LANDRY LA-UPPER ST. MARTIN LA-LAFAYETTE LA-VERMILION LA-IBERIA
LA-1021 AM CDT TUE SEP 2 2008

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR ST. LANDRY...LAFAYETTE...
VERMILION...IBERIA AND ST. MARTIN PARISHES UNTIL 1215 PM CDT...

AT 1022 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE INDICATED BY NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR FROM SOUTHERN VERMILION PARISH
NORTHEAST AND INTO NEW IBERIA...ST MARTIN AND ST MARY PARISHES.
THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF INTENSE RAINFALL THAT WILL
CAUSE FLOODING DUE IN PART TO TRAINING OF STORMS OVER THE LAST 12
HOURS. IN ADDITION... FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS. STORMS ARE MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST BUT THE THEY
CONTINUE TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTHWEST IN THE GULF.

* THE STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  LOREAUVILLE...NEW IBERIA AND CADE BY 1215 PM CDT

PERSONS OUT DRIVING SHOULD USE CAUTION AS PONDING OF WATER ON ROAD
SURFACES WILL MAKE DRIVING DANGEROUS.

K. KUYPER