Snow Advisory 5, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1158 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

.UPDATE...
DEW POINT VALUES INHIBITING MUCH OF ANYTHING GETTING TO THE SFC IN
THE SW...BETTER POTENTIAL IN BRIEF MID LEVEL FGEN BAND ACROSS WRN
CHERRY CO. SOME CSI BANDS SHOWING UP IN RADAR AND POTENTIAL
CONFIRMED IN SHORT RANGE MODEL EPV. IN ADDITION...UPRIGHT
CONVECTION SEEN EARLIER THIS AM. THEREFORE UPDATED TO REFLECT
ONGOING PRECIP TRENDS. MODELS NOT DOING SO WELL WITH TD VALUES
ACROSS CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING WHICH GIVES CONCERN NOT ONLY FOR LL
DRY AIR INTRUSION GREATER THAN MODELS INDICATE...BUT ALSO FOR
BETTER ELEVATED CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL OVERNIGHT. GOES DPI VALUES
ALSO CONCERNING IN THE SW. TEMPS WONT DO MUCH IN THE NEXT 12 TO 18
HOURS...SO LOW DIURNAL RANGE GIVEN IN GRIDS. STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR
TONIGHT FOR ACCUM SNOW IN THE OGA TO DUNNING AREAS AS PER HPC WWD
GRAPHICS...BUT ALSO INCLUDED SOME -ZR IN SRN MOST ZONES BASED ON
09Z SREF PLUMES AND BUFR SOUNDING GUIDANCE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 331 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008/

DISCUSSION...
LEAD FRONTO BAND ARRIVING TO SW CWA ATTM AND ACCORDING TO 88D
RETURNS HAD A DECENT CICULATION ASSOC WITH IT. HOWEVER SFC HIGH
SETTLING ALONG MO RIVER VALLEY IS PUSHING LLVL DRY AIR INTO MUCH OF
REGION WITH MOISTURE TRAPPED ALONG HIGH PLAINS TO THE WEST WHERE
SOME OF MOISTURE IS REACING THE GROUND. NOT LOOKING SO GOOD FOR CWA
BUT WILL HAVE TO CARRY POPS THIS MORNING WITH BEST CHANCE IN FAR
WEST. MAIN CONCERN FOR FIRST PART OF FCST CAN BE SEEN IN WATER
VAPOR...GOES DPI TPW PRODUCT AND UPSTREAM RAOBS. THIS WOULD BE THE
VERY DRY AIR ROUNDING THE STRONGLY DIGGING LOW MOVING INTO SO
CAL...FROM N.AZ (FGZ RAOB). THIS IS REFLECTED IN BUFR SOUNDINGS
ACROSS CWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH DRY LAYER ALOFT ERASING ANY
SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC LAYER AND LEAVING EITHER DRY OR TRACE
TYPE PCPN. THIS DRY LAYER AND AND ASSOC NEG EPV MAY LEAD TO MORE
CONVECTIVE TYPE SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN CWA AND HAVE LEFT THE HIGHEST
POPS MAINLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 83. MODELS IN CLOSER AGREEMENT FOR
HIGHER QPF/SNOW EVENT OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORN THAN 24 HOURS AGO.
THIS STRIP OF SNOW HAS TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH...MORE IN LINE WITH
EURO/GEM FROM LAST NIGHT. CONFIDENCE HIGHER THAT THIS WILL OCCUR BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO NAIL DOWN WARNING AREA ATTM. CONCERN STILL RESTS
WITH DIFFERENCE IN SREF/ENSEMBLE AND MOS OUTPUT TO MODEL SOLNS. COLD
AIR FROM ARCTIC HIGH COMING DOWN HAS CHANGED PROFILES MORE FAVORABLE
IN THE DIRECTION OF SNOW THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT THICKNESS VALUES AND
LOWER PROFILES OF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WOULD INDICATE RAIN SNOW LINE
WILL STILL BE PRESENT SOMEWHERE NEAR I-80 CORRIDOR. SREF PLUME
OUTPUT UP NORTH IS SNOW DOMINANT BUT VCNTY LBF IS STILL UP IN THE
AIR WITH NUMEROUS PTYPE EQUALLY ACCOUNTED FOR. STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
ABILITY OF SNOWFALL TO ACCUM WITH TEMPS NEAR FREEZING AND WARMER
GROUND TEMPS ABLE TO MELT SNOW. ONLY WAY TO OVERCOME WOULD BE WITH
STRONG CIRCULATION PRODUCING HEAVY ENOUGH RATES TO OVERCOME. BOTH
GFS/NAM INDICATE THIS FROM NEAR HWY 23 IN SW NEB INTO SOUTHERN
SANDHILLS INCLUDING SOUTHERN PANHANDLE. ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE IS STRONG
TONIGHT...AS WELL AS MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS...WHICH WILL BE ENHANCED BY MID LEVEL CIRCULATION AND AGEO
ASCENT FROM NOSE OF ARRIVING JET.  WOULD LIKE ANOTHER RUN OF MODELS
TO CONFIRM THIS SO HAVE PUSHED BACK WATCH TO 00Z AND WILL DEFER TO
LATER SHIFT TO USE 12Z RUNS TO BACK UP THINKING...ESPECIALLY WITH
06Z RUNS PUSHING THINGS FARTHER SOUTH YET. H7 LOW TRACK FROM SW CWA
INTO NCENTRAL NEB AND LOOKS TO KEEP STRIP OF SNOW ALONG THIS TRACK
THROUGH MONDAY SO INCREASED POPS AND EXTENDED WATCH THROUGH THE DAY
ON TUESDAY. PROJECTED AMOUNTS WOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 8 IN VCNTY OF LINE
FROM ONL TO OGA. TEMPS DIFFICULT AS WELL BUT STARTED WITH NAM 2M
TEMPS AND BLENDED IN GUIDANCE. THINK STRIP OF SNOW WILL KEEP TEMPS
DOWN AND LOWERED ACCORDINGLY. NO BIG CHANGES BEYOND FIRST 48 HOURS
OR SO.

AVIATION...
TODAY...THE AREA OF SNOW AND IFR CEILINGS ACROSS SW NEB...NERN COLO
AND WRN NEB WILL LIFT NORTH THIS MORNING. AREAS SURROUNDING THE SNOW
WILL BE VFR.

TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD SNOW AND IFR IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING FOR NEZ004>006-008-009-022>027-035>038-056>059-
069-094.

&&

DP/CC/JWS/MP

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
612 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171115-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
612 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008 /512 AM MDT SUN MAR 16 2008/

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR WESTERN AND PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

LIGHT SNOW TODAY WILL BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT IN SOME AREAS.
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS REMAIN SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN BUT LATER FORECASTS
SHOULD BE MORE HELPFUL AS THE STORM DRAWS NEAR LATER TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SNOW CONTINUES MONDAY. TRAVEL COULD BE DIFFICULT IN SOME AREAS
DURING THE MORNING HOURS. TRAVEL CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE FREEZING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

CDC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
840 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0839 AM     SNOW             10 NE OSHKOSH           41.51N 102.21W
03/16/2008  M2.0 INCH        GARDEN             NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

CARMEL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
917 AM CDT SUN MAR 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0915 AM     SNOW             6 N GORDON              42.89N 102.20W
03/16/2008  M0.5 INCH        SHERIDAN           NE   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SNOW FELL BETWEEN 615 TO 715 AM.

&&

CARMEL