Severe Thunderstorm Warning 431, NWS North Platte, NE

000 
WWUS53 KLBF 130137
SVSLBF

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
837 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

NEC031-130215-
/O.CON.KLBF.SV.W.0431.000000T0000Z-080813T0215Z/
CHERRY NE-
737 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM MDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CHERRY COUNTY...

AT 734 PM MDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED
NEAR HIGHWAY 61 MILE MARKER 190...OR 38 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GORDON...
MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  RURAL WESTERN CHERRY COUNTY AT 750 PM MDT

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED SOME WEAK ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM.
WHILE NOT IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...A TORNADO MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A
TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A
STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS AND LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY
AWAY FROM WINDOWS

LAT...LON 4234 10147 4225 10175 4265 10194 4272 10172
TIME...MOT...LOC 0137Z 337DEG 26KT 4239 10166

$$

POWER

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
258 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

.DISCUSSION...
THE BIG BOWLING BALL OF 2008 IS ABOUT TO CLOBBER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
A LARGE...VERY ANOMALOUS CUTOFF LOW WILL DROP VERY SLOWLY SOUTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE ROCKIES.
ALL MODELS...THE ECMWF...GFS...UKMET AND NAM12 ARE IN REASONABLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY AND THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE CLOSE
THROUGH MONDAY. A VERY WET...COOL PATTERN WILL DEVELOP FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY WITH PERIODS OF RAIN...SCATTERED SHOWERS...
CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S...60S AND 70S.

THE NAM12 AND GFS ARE ALSO SUGGESTING ROUNDS OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT...WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AT TIMES...HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. THIS HEAVY RAIN
WILL GIVE WAY TO SPIRAL BANDS OF RAIN...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS NEARLY STATIONARY
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MODEL BLEND OF THE GFS AND NAM12 WAS USED FOR POPS AND QPF TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR AREAL UNCERTAINTY.
TOTAL QPF TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY APPEARS TO BE 1 TO 3 INCHES. HPC
SUGGESTED 1/2 TO 1 INCHES TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM12
HAS BULLS EYES OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS PARTS OF WRN AND NCNTL NEB
CONSISTENT WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LARGE SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS...
LIKE MONDAY NIGHTS MEASURED 5 INCH CENTER OVER BUTTE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH FRIDAY ARE BLENDED NAM12 2M AND GUIDANCE WHILE
THE HPC GRIDS LOOKED REASONABLE FOR THE EXTENDED.

&&

.AVIATION...
VISUAL FLIGHT RULES WILL CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT
TERMINALS KLBF AND KVTN. MID AND HIGH CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED TO
INCREASE AS HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON THE HIGH PLAINS AND
MOVE SOUTHEAST WITH MEAN WIND FLOW TO SPREAD CLOUD DEBRIS INTO THE
WEST. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS FOCUS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
CONVECTION THROUGH 12/06Z WEST OF HIGHWAY 83 FROM VALENTINE TO NORTH
PLATTE...HOWEVER MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE LIKELY UNTIL AFTER 12Z
WEDNESDAY AS CONVECTION THAT DOES DEVELOP MOVES SOUTHEAST AND
ENCOUNTERS INCREASING MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS WESTERN NEBRASKA FOR
SCATTERED CLOUDS BELOW 5KFT. HIGH BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THE VICINITY OF KLBF TERMINAL AND INCLUDED IN CURRENT AVIATION
FORECAST THIS EVENING.
&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

CDC/TLK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-132030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
321 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008 /221 PM MDT TUE AUG 12 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT. THE GREATEST RISK WILL BE ACROSS THE
PANHANDLE AND EAST TO HIGHWAY 61 FROM MERRIMAN TO IMPERIAL.
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL BE HIGH BASED CREATING A HIGHER
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS MOVE OFF THE HIGH
PLAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND AS A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES SOUTH...STALLING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS
THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE EACH DAY DURING THE
PERIOD...WITH THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY. AT
THIS TIME...THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS WEST OF A
LINE FROM BASSETT TO ANSLEY. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL
BE THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED IN THE FAR WEST
TONIGHT...GENERALLY WEST OF HIGHWAY 61.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

KECK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
348 PM CDT TUE AUG 12 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1140 PM     HAIL             2 E MOOREFIELD          40.69N 100.36W
08/11/2008  E1.00 INCH       FRONTIER           NE   PUBLIC

            PENNY TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS CAUSED SOME
            CROP DAMAGE.

&&

CARMEL