Severe Thunderstorm Warning 383, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
307 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE NEAR TERM IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DOLLY...AND TEMPERATURES/PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN
THE EXTENDED...

.SYNOPSIS...
H5 ANALYSIS FROM THIS MORNING NEARLY IDENTICAL TO 24 HRS AGO...WITH
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM CALIFORNIA TO FLORIDA. SEVERAL EMBEDDED
SHORTWAVES NOTED WITHIN THE NWRLY FLOW EXTENDING FROM ERN MT INTO
THE OZARKS.

.DISCUSSION...

NEAR TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)...MAIN FORECASTING
CHALLENGES IN THE NEAR TERM LIE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITHIN
THE ACTIVE NWRLY FLOW...AND IMPACTS OF THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY ON
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

INITIAL THOUGHTS WERE TO LEAVE THE SRN ZONES DRY THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WEAKENING CAP EVIDENT BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND
VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST HR. CANNOT RULE OUT A DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ISOLATED TSRA IN THE SOUTH THIS EVENING...SO HAD TO INCLUDE
THIS IN THE FCST. BETTER CHANCES FOR TSRAS...SEVERE TSRAS AND
PRECIPITATION CONTINUE IN THE NERN ZONES TONIGHT AS SFC DEW POINTS
REMAIN IN THE LOW 70S...AND THIS LOCATION IS IN THE PROXIMITY OF A
NWD LIFTING WARM FRONT. WILL KEEP MENTION OF PRECIPITATION IN THE
NERN ZONES AFTER MIDNIGHT...AS THE NAM INDICATING THE PRESENCE OF A
LOW LEVEL JET FOCUSED OVER ERN NEBRASKA.

SHIFTING TO MONDAY AND THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF DOLLY. MODELS REMAIN
CONSISTENT WITH THEMSELVES FOR THE TRACK OF THIS FEATURE INTO MONDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TRACK BETWEEN
SOLUTIONS. THE GFS PREFERS A TRACK OVER KANSAS...WHILE THE NAM LIFTS
THIS FEATURE ACROSS SRN AND SERN NEBRASKA. REGARDLESS...OF MODEL
CHOICE...THE REMNANTS OF DOLLY SHOULD LIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF
THE CWA TOMORROW AND TOMORROW EVENING. WITH THIS FEATURE PASSING TO
THE SOUTH...MID TO HIGH CLOUDINESS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE CLOSED
SYSTEM...WILL KEEP TEMPS DOWN SOME IN THE SOUTH MONDAY. WITH THIS
IN MIND...I UNDERCUT GUIDANCE TEMPS 3 TO 5 DEGREES IN THE SOUTH
TOMORROW...SO LOWER 90S INSTEAD OF UPR 90S.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...DOLLY IS EXPECTED TO EXIT TO THE EAST ON
MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL ENTER THE
WESTERN DAKOTAS MONDAY AFTERNOON. SFC DEW POINTS NOT AS ROBUST AS THEY HAVE
BEEN OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...BUT NONE THE LESS...HIGH ENOUGH
TO SUPPORT CAPES AOA 2000J/KG NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. WILL FOCUS HIGHEST
POPS IN THESE AREAS AS LOCATIONS FURTHER SOUTH WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
CAPPED. MORE OF THE SAME ON WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER STRONG DISTURBANCES
LIFTS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. ONCE AGAIN...THE HIGHEST CAPES AND
STRONGEST INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS THE NRN CWA...SO HIGHEST POPS
PLACED THERE. A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED BEYOND MIDWEEK AS RIDGING
BEGINS TO TRANSITION EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FROM THE SRN
ROCKIES.

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...UPR LVL HIGH OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS...WILL TRANSITION EAST THURSDAY...BECOMING ANCHORED ACROSS
THE CENTRAL CONUS BY THE END OF THE WEEK. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED
IN THIS FORECAST THIS MORNING AS BOTH LONG RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE
CONVERGING ON THIS FCST SCENARIO. DRY CONDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA...ARE EXPECTED WITH HOT TEMPS EXPECTED
DURING THE PERIOD. TSTM ACTIVITY OVER THE DAKOTAS MAY CLIP THE FAR
NRN AND NERN CWA DURING THE PERIOD...BUT HAVE OPTED TO LEAVE DRY
ATTM AS GUIDANCE POPS REMAIN WELL BELOW CLIMO. NEXT POSSIBLE WEATHER
MAKER ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY/MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROF OF LOW
PRESSURE ALOFT TRAVERSES THE NRN TIER OF STATES. SOME TIMING
DIFFERENCES NOTED WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT SUNDAY/MONDAY DEPENDING
ON GFS OR EURO SOLN...SO WILL OPT FOR A DRY FCST ATTM.

&&

AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THERE IS SMALL
POSSIBILITY FOR A STRAY THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT THE TERMINAL SITES.
LOW CHANCES DO NOT WARRANT MENTION AT THIS TIME IN TAF. BEST CHANCES
FOR MVFR/IFR THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA...ALONG STATIONARY BOUNDARY. ALSO PRECIP FROM REMNANTS OF DOLLY
EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF KLBF. DO EXPECT TO SEE AN INCREASE
IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT...THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE
WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT AND PREVENT ANY WIDESPREAD FOG OR LOW
STRATUS.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE

.AVIATION...MASEK
.SHORT AND LONG TERM...BUTTLER

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
329 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-282030-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
329 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2008 /229 PM MDT SUN JUL 27 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA TONIGHT...NORTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
AINSWORTH TO BURWELL. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL FUEL THE CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER
NORTHERN NEBRASKA NORTH OF HIGHWAY 2. THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WINDS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

MASEK