Severe Thunderstorm Warning 329, NWS North Platte, NE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
326 PM CDT TUE JUL 16 2008

...FOR SYSTEMS TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALL OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA SHOULD RECEIVE APPRECIABLE RAINFALL...WITH
LOCALLY EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS...

.DISCUSSION...

COVERAGE OF TSTMS THROUGH 00Z LOOKS TO BE ISOLATED WITH NO REAL
FOCUS YET. AFTER 00Z...LLVL JET WILL INCREASE TO 35 TO 40 KTS...WITH
NOSE PUNCHING INTO NCTRL NEBR. POTENTIAL FOR A LARGE MCS TO DROP
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM NCTRL NEBR INTO CNTRL SANDHILLS. POPS NEAR 50
PERCENT FOR CHERRY COUNTY.

BEST TSTM CHCS WILL FOCUS ON THUR AFTN THROUGH THUR NIGHT. MID LEVEL
COOLING CAUSED BY S/V THROUGH AND H7 TEMPS COOLING TO 9C IS
SUGGESTIVE OF WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUED PEAK OUT NEAR 1.75 TO 2 INCHES NEAR AND NORTH OF SFC FRONT.
GREATEST THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER INCLUDING LG HAIL...WIND DMG AND
EVEN FLASH FLOODING WILL BE PRESENT THURSDAY AFTN AND THUR NIGHT.
POPS AT THIS JUNCTURE RANGE FROM 40 TO 70 PERCENT WITH LIKELY POPS
DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST.

SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM AND WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS BY FRIDAY NIGHT IS SUGGESTIVE OF MAINLY A SLIGHT CHC FOR
TSTMS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. A COOLDOWN INTO THE LOWER 80S FRIDAY
WILL BRING A WARMUP BACK INTO THE LOWER  90S BY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. THE JURY IS STILL OUT ON WHETHER A COLD FRONT WILL PASS
ACROSS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A COOLER SUNDAY. GFS CONTINUES TO
MAINTAIN A CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT/SUNDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS MORE SUBTLE.
&&

.AVIATION...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA THIS
EVENING AND BECOME THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. CONVECTION WILL BE SLOW MOVING WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
KVTN AND KLBF TERMINALS THROUGH 14Z THURSDAY. THE ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE HIGH BASED THIS EVENING WITH BRIEF
REDUCTIONS IN CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES AS STORMS MOVE ACROSS. AS
THE FRONT MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
WITH CLOUD CEILINGS LIKELY MVFR THURSDAY MORNING AT THE KVTN
TERMINAL THAT SHOULD LINGER THROUGH 20Z BEFORE LIFTING IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LBF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

ROBERG/KECK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
322 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

NEZ004>010-022>029-035>038-056>059-069>071-094-171000-
SHERIDAN-EASTERN CHERRY-KEYA PAHA-BOYD-BROWN-ROCK-HOLT-GARDEN-
GRANT-HOOKER-THOMAS-BLAINE-LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-ARTHUR-MCPHERSON-
LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN-CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER-
WESTERN CHERRY-
322 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008 /222 PM MDT WED JUL 16 2008/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM EXISTS AS A COLD FRONT MOVES
SLOWLY SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST NEBRASKA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL LIFT THROUGH THE
EVENING FOR A FEW STORMS TO REACH SEVERE LIMITS NORTHWEST OF A
LINE FROM BRULE IN KEITH COUNTY TO SUTHERLAND IN LINCOLN
COUNTY...TO SPENCER IN BOYD COUNTY. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
LARGE HAIL. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
REMAINDER OF THE OUT LOOK AREA BUT ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
SEVERE LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA ON THURSDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE STATE. EARLIEST DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE
LATE THURSDAY MORNING OR EARLY AFTERNOON...THEN RAPID EXPANSION IS
LIKELY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREATS ARE DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

THE FRONT IS THEN EXPECTED TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHWARD ACROSS
NEBRASKA FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THEN A SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP
ON THE HIGH PLAINS. AS A RESULT OF THESE DEVELOPMENTS...THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY IN WESTERN AND
NORTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED TONIGHT AND ON THURSDAY.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...
HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATOLOGICAL INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/NORTHPLATTE

WFO LBF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE
1226 PM CDT WED JUL 16 2008

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HAIL             5 W ONEILL              42.46N 98.74W
07/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       HOLT               NE   PUBLIC

0429 PM     HAIL             ONEILL                  42.46N 98.65W
07/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       HOLT               NE   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0449 PM     HAIL             4 E CHAMBERS            42.21N 98.67W
07/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       HOLT               NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0546 PM     HAIL             14 NNE BARTLETT         42.07N 98.45W
07/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       WHEELER            NE   PUBLIC

0615 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 E ERICSON             41.78N 98.52W
07/15/2008  E60.00 MPH       WHEELER            NE   PUBLIC

0712 PM     HAIL             BASSETT                 42.58N 99.54W
07/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       ROCK               NE   EMERGENCY MNGR

0715 PM     HAIL             3 E BASSETT             42.58N 99.48W
07/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       ROCK               NE   PUBLIC

0720 PM     HAIL             4 W OGALLALA            41.13N 101.80W
07/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

0722 PM     HAIL             6 N JOHNSTOWN           42.66N 100.06W
07/15/2008  M0.88 INCH       BROWN              NE   PUBLIC

            HAIL DIME TO NICKEL SIZE REPORTED 6 MILES NORTH OF
            JOHNSTOWN THAT COVERED THE GROUND.

0727 PM     HAIL             4 W OGALLALA            41.13N 101.80W
07/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       KEITH              NE   TRAINED SPOTTER

            VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH VISIBILITY LES THAN A QUARTER MILE.

0735 PM     HAIL             KILGORE                 42.94N 100.96W
07/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       CHERRY             NE   PUBLIC

0749 PM     HAIL             3 S LONG PINE           42.49N 99.70W
07/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       BROWN              NE   PUBLIC

0749 PM     HAIL             5 SSE JOHNSTOWN         42.51N 100.02W
07/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              NE   PUBLIC

0750 PM     HAIL             6 N ARTHUR              41.66N 101.69W
07/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       ARTHUR             NE   PUBLIC

0815 PM     HAIL             4 S LONG PINE           42.48N 99.70W
07/15/2008  E1.00 INCH       BROWN              NE   PUBLIC

0848 PM     HAIL             16 SSE AINSWORTH        42.33N 99.74W
07/15/2008  E0.88 INCH       BROWN              NE   PUBLIC

0855 PM     HAIL             17 SSW MULLEN           41.81N 101.17W
07/15/2008  E0.75 INCH       HOOKER             NE   PUBLIC

&&

TKECK